Soul_Survivor88
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2015
- Messages
- 7,131
- Reaction score
- 12,056
@patfanken Since you were disappointed that I didn't mention how well the Patriots have defended the run, I wanted to include this :
In PFF rankings, Alan Branch and Malcom Brown finished second and third among all defensive tackles in run-stop percentage, while Trey Flowers finished 10th among edge players. Branch alone has 13 tackles against the run for either no gain or a loss of yards (more than twice as many as anyone else on the Patriots). As DTs, Branch and Brown both have the size and weight to take on double-teams, but are also laterally quick enough to shed blocks and penetrate quickly to the ball carrier. Flowers, meanwhile, can also line up in the interior in hybrid fronts and has exceptional burst through blocks for someone who is only 6'2", 265-pound frame.
The remaining players on the defensive front seven have run stopping grades ranging from high to decent: Hightower (75.4), Jabaal Sheard (75.2), Chris Long (69.2), Shea McClellin (62.0) and Rob Ninkovich (69.5). Only Van Noy has a sub-par metric of 50.4 (which is low for a middle linebacker).
FiveThirtyEight recent made a model for expected yards for a run based on the area where an opposing running back was first contacted and what yard-line his team was on, relative to the line of scrimmage (and then compared his average actual results to what the model expected.) The goal of this model is to determine how effectively a defense can defend against the run -- either by restricting the lanes being opened in the trenches, or by directly tackling a ball carrier and forcing him back to the line of scrimmage.
While the yards after contact is more a function of speed, strength, and tackling ability, the yards a defense allows before first making contact is likely an indicator of how well a defender can adjust their pre-tackle reads, avoid or shed blocks, and close in on run lanes before making contact with the ball-carrier.
In this case, the Patriots are in the top group as far as when their opponents get engaged at the line of scrimmage. It show how effective they are in adjusting scheme and controlling the battle in the trenches
Behind the defensive front in the secondary, Logan Ryan has been solid at run support from the slot, wihle Patrick Chung is basically a safety in a linebacker's body, with an exceptionally high run stopping metric of 68.4. Interestingly enough, Football Outsiders ranks New England in leading the league in restricting open-field yards (rushing yards earned more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total number of carries) meaning that both New England's linebackers and secondary are exceptionally good at inserting themselves into run support and collapsing around the ball carrier. Throughout the season, they've allowed the fewest number of runs at ten or more yards (32) which is the lowest mark of any team in the league.
Overall, New England’s run defense was well above-average across the board. While they only had to face the third-fewest rushing attempts on the season, they still allowed the third-fewest rushing yards, the fewest rushing touchdowns, and the eighth-lowest yards per attempt!
One interesting thing to note about all this, is that the Patriots often played with the lead in most of their games, meaning they were facing passes at a far greater rate than usual (about 60 percent of opposing team’s plays were passes, the 4th-highest in the league). So even while playing prevent defense to keep their opponents from making quick scores, they still managed to contain and effectively limit the run.
When you consider all the data, it's hard to not appreciate how well the Patriots have done against the run. In fact, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA (a metric which measures efficiency adjusted for opponents) this is the highest-ranked rushing defense of Bill Belichick's entire tenure in New England
In PFF rankings, Alan Branch and Malcom Brown finished second and third among all defensive tackles in run-stop percentage, while Trey Flowers finished 10th among edge players. Branch alone has 13 tackles against the run for either no gain or a loss of yards (more than twice as many as anyone else on the Patriots). As DTs, Branch and Brown both have the size and weight to take on double-teams, but are also laterally quick enough to shed blocks and penetrate quickly to the ball carrier. Flowers, meanwhile, can also line up in the interior in hybrid fronts and has exceptional burst through blocks for someone who is only 6'2", 265-pound frame.
The remaining players on the defensive front seven have run stopping grades ranging from high to decent: Hightower (75.4), Jabaal Sheard (75.2), Chris Long (69.2), Shea McClellin (62.0) and Rob Ninkovich (69.5). Only Van Noy has a sub-par metric of 50.4 (which is low for a middle linebacker).
FiveThirtyEight recent made a model for expected yards for a run based on the area where an opposing running back was first contacted and what yard-line his team was on, relative to the line of scrimmage (and then compared his average actual results to what the model expected.) The goal of this model is to determine how effectively a defense can defend against the run -- either by restricting the lanes being opened in the trenches, or by directly tackling a ball carrier and forcing him back to the line of scrimmage.
While the yards after contact is more a function of speed, strength, and tackling ability, the yards a defense allows before first making contact is likely an indicator of how well a defender can adjust their pre-tackle reads, avoid or shed blocks, and close in on run lanes before making contact with the ball-carrier.
In this case, the Patriots are in the top group as far as when their opponents get engaged at the line of scrimmage. It show how effective they are in adjusting scheme and controlling the battle in the trenches
Behind the defensive front in the secondary, Logan Ryan has been solid at run support from the slot, wihle Patrick Chung is basically a safety in a linebacker's body, with an exceptionally high run stopping metric of 68.4. Interestingly enough, Football Outsiders ranks New England in leading the league in restricting open-field yards (rushing yards earned more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total number of carries) meaning that both New England's linebackers and secondary are exceptionally good at inserting themselves into run support and collapsing around the ball carrier. Throughout the season, they've allowed the fewest number of runs at ten or more yards (32) which is the lowest mark of any team in the league.
Overall, New England’s run defense was well above-average across the board. While they only had to face the third-fewest rushing attempts on the season, they still allowed the third-fewest rushing yards, the fewest rushing touchdowns, and the eighth-lowest yards per attempt!
One interesting thing to note about all this, is that the Patriots often played with the lead in most of their games, meaning they were facing passes at a far greater rate than usual (about 60 percent of opposing team’s plays were passes, the 4th-highest in the league). So even while playing prevent defense to keep their opponents from making quick scores, they still managed to contain and effectively limit the run.
When you consider all the data, it's hard to not appreciate how well the Patriots have done against the run. In fact, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA (a metric which measures efficiency adjusted for opponents) this is the highest-ranked rushing defense of Bill Belichick's entire tenure in New England