ESPN.com Pats preview - Watson possibly most overrated in NFL

[Kdo5]

It's about time ESPN gets off the Pats c***s and realize the Fins are the better team. I really don't understand the Ben Watson line however. He is going to emerge as a big time TE this year I think. I love the Rodney Harrison comment because I hate that cheap shotting SOB. I hope he can't come back from the injury and is no longer the player he once was. Culpepper should have a field day pitchin' the ball all over the lot to Chambers and McMichael on your depleted secondary. Season should be great and I can't wait to see my Fins as the Eastern champs.

Shut the **** up and please leave. Your an obnoxious freaking troll. Go back to Fin Heaven ass hole.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

Shut the **** up and please leave. Your an obnoxious freaking troll. Go back to Fin Heaven ass hole.

What's the matter? No counter point? That's alright, you don't have much of an argument any way.

 

[zippo59]

I love the Rodney Harrison comment because I hate that cheap shotting SOB. I hope he can't come back from the injury and is no longer the player he once was.

Wishing a player ill. That is pretty damn s hitty. I even called out fellow Pats fans for hoping Dolphinis players got hurt but I guess your too much of a d-bag to return the same decency.

 

[primetime]

K.C. Joyner's stupid little Bill James, sabermetric system is about as bad as it gets.

Him saying Ben Watson is overrated - only because of what his spreadsheet crapped out - is nothing new.

The difference between sabermetrics and Joyner's stuff is that Joyner's is almost all subjective. Balls, strikes, outs, walks, that stuff's all quantified and easy to find. Joyner bases his stuff on bad decisions, which is purely subjective, and other subjective statistics. Football is a much different game than baseball because it moves constantly and is 11v11, with each person having a different role. In baseball, the pitcher's job is to get the batter out, and the batter's job is to get on base. Statistical analysis can help a little in free flowing games like football, but nowhere near the help it provides in baseball. And even in baseball, half the guys Beane mentiones in Moneyball have never made anything of themselves.

 

[Kdo5]

What's the matter? No counter point? That's alright, you don't have much of an argument any way.

What like you had a point? Ally ou did was try to smack talk against the Patriots, you made no points what so ever idiot, go back to Fin Heaven.

 

[patsfan13]

You can add me to that list the Pats will bury the Fins this year.

 

[zippo59]

What's the matter? No counter point? That's alright, you don't have much of an argument any way.

Let me get this straight, you come in here and insult Pats players, call them names, wish injury oon them, and you expect us to rationally take the time to form an organized, well thought out counterargument to your mud-slinging?

 

[pats1]

It's about time ESPN gets off the Pats c***s and realize the Fins are the better team. I really don't understand the Ben Watson line however. He is going to emerge as a big time TE this year I think. I love the Rodney Harrison comment because I hate that cheap shotting SOB. I hope he can't come back from the injury and is no longer the player he once was. Culpepper should have a field day pitchin' the ball all over the lot to Chambers and McMichael on your depleted secondary. Season should be great and I can't wait to see my Fins as the Eastern champs.

What depleted secondary? The same secondary FredEx yapped about before the Super Bowl, and your friend Rodney quietly responded to?

How did that work out in 2004, that "depleted" secondary?

Didn't the Pats go like 3-13 in 2004? I can't remember.

Do you?

 

[rookBoston]

Funny how every FA loss is a defection, and every new player is a risk.

The pundits are convinced the Patriots are on a downswing as a franchise, and as proof they use the loss of McGinest, Givens and Vinatieri. These same pundits had written McGinest off years ago as an underachiever, Givens was about equivalent to Bam Childress today, and Vinatieri was a hard working tier-2 kicker, with a mediocre leg.

Personally, I think this team may be the deepest and strongest version of the Pats that we've seen in the BB era. The only questionmark is at WR and at LB

But a rotation with Vrabel, Colvin, Bruschi, Seau starting, and TBC, Woods and Gardner subbing, is only a very small step back from the unit that won the SB in 2004, with Junior playing the role of TJ.

And worst case scenario, we play Troy and Reche at WR... how far is that from our 2001 unit of Troy and Patten? Add Chad Jackson into the mix, and we're actually not so bad off. I think Bam is the wildcard which can really make our receiving corp legit. David Givens was not always a household name, either. Then, add Branch back onto the roster, and this unit is quickly back among the top-10 in the NFL.

Other than that, this is the best OL, best DL, best RB, best TE, best QB (since 2001) units that we've had this Century. Our secondary isn't famous (yet), but they are deep, physical and hardworking.

 

[patsfan13]

O am looking forward to the backtracking by the experts over the season. They look only at our losses and not at our additions. They don't apply those standards to other team. **rew the media.

 

[Aqua4Ever04]

I never wished injury apon Rodney. I just hope he never returns to his level of play he was once at. He is a cheap SOB and I hate him with a passion just like the Pats.

 

[zippo59]

I never wished injury apon Rodney. I just hope he never returns to his level of play he was once at. He is a cheap SOB and I hate him with a passion just like the Pats.

That is essentially the same the thing.

By the way the cheap hit thing is one of the dumbest myths in the NFL. Harrison was close to retirement after he hurt Trent Green in the preseason in 1999 because he couldn't take everyone saying he did it on purpose and he is a cheap hitter. Rodey is physical, plays his hardest on every sap, and punishes people when he hits them. And you know what, he is damn good. This league could use a lot more players with his attitude. If you don't want to get hit, don't play football. You hate him so much because his passion is extremely irritating to someone who does not benefit from it. You, being a Dolphins fan, clearly do not.

 

[hwc]

The D-line is spectacular. All three starters plus a backup are first round draft picks. Are you kidding me?

And, for the first time in the Belichick era, the Pats won't be starting scrubs on the O-line -- as he's been quietly drafting big, young, athletic guys.

Nice RB combo of a Meggett-type in Faulk, a clock-killer pounder in Dillon, and a young stud in Maroney.

Pundits are saying the LB corps is weak? Vrabel, Colvin, Brushci, and Seau? If that's "weak", I sure would hate to see what a strong LB corps looks like. Just because there aren't any accused murderers doesn't mean this squad can't play linebacker. How many Pro Bowls and SuperBowls between them? Yeah, cry in my beer. We really lose a lot with Colvin (in his prime) playing full-time instead of McGinnest.

TE depth? Two first rounders and the rookie stud from Texas national championship team? OK, I guess we'll just have to manage.

If only we had a QB. Maybe the Pats could trade for somebody like Duante Culpepper?

 

[Kdo5]

I never wished injury apon Rodney. I just hope he never returns to his level of play he was once at. He is a cheap SOB and I hate him with a passion just like the Pats.

Cheap SOB? Maybe he was but heis one of the classy players in the NFL nowadays. If your Dolphins still cant take hard hits, then they might as well stop playing football. It aint a ****y sport you know. I havent seen a cheap shot since he joined the Patriots, all legal.

NOW PLEASE LEAVE

 

[sieglo]

FWIW on the Watson issue, I think it is still TBD whether Watson is even the best tight end on the team.... Graham is underestimated IMHO, and now that our o-line is more solid we may see a lot more out of him this year.

 

[Kdo5]

FWIW on the Watson issue, I think it is still TBD whether Watson is even the best tight end on the team.... Graham is underestimated IMHO, and now that our o-line is more solid we may see a lot more out of him this year.

Overall Graham is the best TE in the team and an incredibly underrated TE in the league. We'll give him his nice fat paycheck to keep him around.

 

[arrellbee]

K.C. Joyner's stupid little Bill James, sabermetric system is about as bad as it gets.

Him saying Ben Watson is overrated - only because of what his spreadsheet crapped out - is nothing new.

I don't know. Statistics certainly are not a full picture in football by any means. But on the other hand, they are not meaningless either. You just have to be careful about what conclusions you might draw or wonder about.

K.C. Joyners' metrics are probably more meaningful than raw stats that you can get from the gamebooks. He really does try to create metrics that are more meaningful about player contributions with respect to contributing to team success. And he adds raw statistics that you can't find elsewhere that are of real value in reflecting on contribution.

In particular on the subject of Watson, for a TE, making successful blocks for a RB is obviously a very significant part of his contribution - I think we all probably agree to that. Whether Joyner's stat for TE blocking success is adequately compiled is a question. But if it is compiled reasonably well, it does paint a picture of how a TE is doing. He rates Watson as one of the poorest in blocking last year. If that's indeed the case, this is an important consideration for the Pats as to whether they have options when Watson is in. If he can't block adequately, then he can only be used for passing purposes and defenses can look at film and plan against this.

A microscopic example of Watson's blocking was in the Washington game 1st-13:01. Run was to strong side off right tackle. Koppen sliced thru and got a complete block against a safety/LB. Neal pulled really well and fast and executed his assignment blocking the outside DB/LB to the outside completely. Graham was at TE and executed his block on the DE completely. O'Callaghan did a perfect job of sealing the DGs toward the middle. Watson was backset TE. He took on his block but established it poorly and let him slide off towards the running lane taking away daylight. Mills was lead blocker from FB position and he slowed down to pick up part of Watson's guy which he should never have had to do and did not keep going to take out the safety coming up. Mills should have stuck with his assignment and hoped that Watson could still slow his guy down to allow a hole or depend on Dillon to bull thru - but he didn't. Result - safety made the tackle for a 1 yard gain. The ironic thing is that Washington had 9 men in the box with two off to the weak side - and even so if Watson and Mills had done their job, Dillon had only daylight ahead of him - which is the real danger with 9 men in the box with nobody back. It was a great play call and could have picked up big yards.

I have only looked at a few plays, so I don't have a meaningful sample.
At 1st-14:52, he was backset TE and had assignment on LB. His intial block was good but he didn't hold it and let the LB slide towards the runner. It didn't matter as it turned out, but I would rate it only a fair block. At 1st-9:30, I had Watson with a good block.

So I would have to wonder if Watson doesn't have some real work to do to bring his blocking up to par. A full analysis in first regular season game would have a far better chance of seeing where he is at.

 

[PonyExpress]

I think Joyner is wrong in saying that Watson is overrated, because I haven't heard any one say he was a top flight tight end already, only that he has the potential to become one. As big a fan of Watson as I am, I have to admit he had inconsistent hands last year, ran incorrect routes, and frequently was not on the same page with Brady. Plus, no one ever claimed he was a stud blocker. However, last year was his "rookie" campaign, and on the big stage he showed game breaking ability. So while he is not yet a superstar, an objective observer can still say Watson is on the verge of becoming one.

 

[patsox23]

aqua, I disagree with the "depleted secondary" comment. In what way is it depleted? That's an argument you could've made in the middle of last year - Rodney out, Gay out, Poole out, Scott out, the other Scott out (I don't count Starks, his being out HELPED) - but NOW? "Depleted?"

Wilson - a very solid S/CB

Hobbs - stabilized the secondary mid-year, led team in INTs as a rookie

Samuel - very solid CB

Rodney - even at 80% he'll provide good production, certainly MORE than 2005

Sanders - having a very good camp, looked good in limited play last year

Hawkins - along with Hobbs, THE biggest reason the Pats secondary improved over the 2nd half of last year.


Tell me again - now that I've BACKED IT UP - how this secondary is "depleted." I'm waiting.

 

[pats1]

I don't know. Statistics certainly are not a full picture in football by any means. But on the other hand, they are not meaningless either. You just have to be careful about what conclusions you might draw or wonder about.

K.C. Joyners' metrics are probably more meaningful than raw stats that you can get from the gamebooks. He really does try to create metrics that are more meaningful about player contributions with respect to contributing to team success. And he adds raw statistics that you can't find elsewhere that are of real value in reflecting on contribution.

In particular on the subject of Watson, for a TE, making successful blocks for a RB is obviously a very significant part of his contribution - I think we all probably agree to that. Whether Joyner's stat for TE blocking success is adequately compiled is a question. But if it is compiled reasonably well, it does paint a picture of how a TE is doing. He rates Watson as one of the poorest in blocking last year. If that's indeed the case, this is an important consideration for the Pats as to whether they have options when Watson is in. If he can't block adequately, then he can only be used for passing purposes and defenses can look at film and plan against this.

A microscopic example of Watson's blocking was in the Washington game 1st-13:01. Run was to strong side off right tackle. Koppen sliced thru and got a complete block against a safety/LB. Neal pulled really well and fast and executed his assignment blocking the outside DB/LB to the outside completely. Graham was at TE and executed his block on the DE completely. O'Callaghan did a perfect job of sealing the DGs toward the middle. Watson was backset TE. He took on his block but established it poorly and let him slide off towards the running lane taking away daylight. Mills was lead blocker from FB position and he slowed down to pick up part of Watson's guy which he should never have had to do and did not keep going to take out the safety coming up. Mills should have stuck with his assignment and hoped that Watson could still slow his guy down to allow a hole or depend on Dillon to bull thru - but he didn't. Result - safety made the tackle for a 1 yard gain. The ironic thing is that Washington had 9 men in the box with two off to the weak side - and even so if Watson and Mills had done their job, Dillon had only daylight ahead of him - which is the real danger with 9 men in the box with nobody back. It was a great play call and could have picked up big yards.

I have only looked at a few plays, so I don't have a meaningful sample.
At 1st-14:52, he was backset TE and had assignment on LB. His intial block was good but he didn't hold it and let the LB slide towards the runner. It didn't matter as it turned out, but I would rate it only a fair block. At 1st-9:30, I had Watson with a good block.

So I would have to wonder if Watson doesn't have some real work to do to bring his blocking up to par. A full analysis in first regular season game would have a far better chance of seeing where he is at.

I've broken down all 3 of those plays and see it a bit differently.

I agree - the 1st-9:30 block was 'good.'

But I'd say the worse of the other two was 1st-14:52.

On 1st-13:01, Watson may have gotten knocked back a bit and didn't have the best angle, but he didn't let the SLB break free for a second, and really didn't slide into Dillon's hole. I laid the blame squarely on Mills. His job was to hit that hole hard, stay ahead of Dillon, and get a good drive block on the penetrating FS. Instead, he stutter-stepped at the line in indecison on whether or not to help Watson or hit the hole. He can't be worrying about Watson's job, because it was done adequately. Mills stopping before the hole slowed down Dillon and stretched the play out. He can bodyslam the FS down all he wants after the stop, but it doesn't change the fact he didn't block him to start out with.