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I don't really buy that. I agree it applies when a team NEEDS to trade up, but ultimately its the same thing. In other words, I will trade you my 3rd this year for your 2nd next year, and make it a permanent trade for the next 20 years and I will end up with 20 2nds for your 20 3rds. The one year earlier that you got a player doesn't really make that much of a difference.On top of that, there is the one-year discounting factor that NFL team execs tend to use. That is to say, NFL GMs tend to view a 2018 4th round pick as equivalent to a 2017 5th round pick. So Belichick paid the 5th round pick price.
(This was seen explicitly in the Richard Seymour trade, where Al Davis gave Belichick the choice of a 2nd round pick in 2010 or a 1st rounder in 2011, and Belichick took the latter which was used to draft Nate Solder.)
The discounting is supply and demand, not value.











