The Bengals DLine could be trouble for the Pats passing game, and their CBs will play tight on KT and Edelboy. Brady won't have the luxury of going to his 3rd or 4th read all day, so I don't expect as strong a game from him. That being said, I think that Pats stand a good chance of running the ball successfully, not in dominating fashion like Atlanta, but enough to move the ball and win the field posession battle. If Gronk comes back (and despite all the noise lately, this is still about when we expected him), he gives us a much stronger run game and creates huge matchup problems in coverage, which will give Brady a reliable early read that will help us sustain drives. We won't run clear over the Bengals, as they are pretty stout up the middle, but I think we can get some pretty good runs on the stretch play and OT. We can probably expect Brady to be picking himself up off the ground with some regularity when we pass, but with the agressive Cincinatti DLine, it might be a week for the screen game. With some effective play calling and good decision-making under pressure, the Pats could do well here. With Cincinatti's middle-of-the-road offense, the Pats could also get back to the hurry-up, if there turns out to be a matchup advantage there. It definitely wouldn't hurt to tire out the DLine, if we can sustain drives at that pace.
I don't think the comparson of Green to Julio Jones is that apt. Jones speed and YAC ability means that he required much more attention from the safeties, because no one person could cover him. This week, I expect we'll be in more of a match-up situation, where Talib follows Green everywhere, like he did with VJax, rather than relying on double coverage. It's not that Green doesn't get YAC, but that Talib will challenge him for the ball and be in position to make the tackle consistently. Talib's physicality and ability to stay close should contain Green enough to leave McCourty in center field, where he can help on whatever deep routes/plays develop, whether that's Green, Gresham, or somebody else. That allows us to to stop the big play, which is probably all that is needed against an inconsistent team like the Bengals, provided we don't make any mistakes.
The two TE offense will pose questions for the rest of our defensive game plan, however. We'll probably see Mayo-Spikes-Hightower, to stiffen-up the run defense, particularly with Vince gone, which means we could be vulnerable in coverage. With Green out there, I don't think we can afford to go straight zone, which means Gregory, Mayo, or Hightower have to match-up with Gresham. He'll probably have a lot of catches and get more 1st downs than we'd like, as Cincinatti's M.O. is to run well enough to set-up a lot of 3rd and 5s, where receivers like Gresham, Eifert, and Benard can run shorter routes that make a big difference. If we can stuff the run enough and not get beat by play action, the 3rd down defensive battles are likely to go the Pats way more often than not.
