Drake Maye is the Most Valuable Player in the NFL

[Stu Pidassle]

Mac Jones in his first 6 starts: 2-4, 71% comp,1472 yards 7/6 TD/int, 89.6 rating, 13 sacks, 3 fumbles 1 lost

Maye in his first 6 starts: 2-4, 67% comp, 1214 yards, 9/6 TD/int, 88.9 rating, 17 sacks, 4 fumbles 3 lost

Just sayin.

Other than the strip sacks and hero ball I really like what I’m seeing from Maye but the talk that the Pats definitely found their guy might be a bit premature? Let’s see what happens when the league has studied him a bit more.

Case in point see above.

Lies, damn lies and statistics. That is a very interesting comparison that is not supported by the results of the eye test. The big difference between the two is that Mac was not asked to take risks and had a gameplan designed to protect him. He was so pampered that the team played not to lose and did not take any chances, even when playing from behind late in games. It is the complete opposite situation for Maye where he is being asked to be the offense with many, many plays breaking down requiring him to improvise. While it is something to watch, I am not too concerned about him trying to do too much because he really doesn't have much choice right now. As a raw rookie I would much rather have someone who does whatever he can to win than someone who plays like a victim of the players around him.

 

[KCSVEN]

Thanks for the graph. At the end of the day, though, Caleb and Maye both have had 2.4sec of Pocket time (btw snap and either throwing the ball or the pocket collapsing) with Caleb's having more pressures and a significantly higher sack rate. Last games for both: Caleb 15.4% pressure rate; Maye: 10.9%.

Unfortunately, we've had way too many instances for the Pats of PFF's providing high or low grades that don't seem to come close to perception. The OL seemingly has been playing better of late, and that was apparent even in Jacoby's stint where it looked like he had time to breathe. Apparently, PFF thinks not. I'm not sure how they calculate Team Pass Block Rate - is it all the separate parts put together? If so, could the whole be better than the sum of its parts?

Of course, all these statistical data points have some bit of bias by whomever judges the data but they are done with the same criteria so the comparisons to other QB's is probably more accurate than the actual #
To me it just reinforces my tape review. On tape the Line is still bad though better with Lowe at LT. Overall, Maye just makes them look better, like Brady made his lines look better.

Wiliams had a very high P2S% in college, near 30%, he has a 29.3% in the pros, anything over 20% is not good. Maye is at 19.3% but last 2 games are 9.1 and 16.7. He was 19.5 last year at UNC but improved on that from his first year. This has a very high correlation from college to pros and success in the NFL.

The last game the OC really made it easy on Williams and he had a good game statistically. Short throws, 1 read and run type plays. The OC pretty much said, Caleb holds the ball too long, is a slow processor, doesn't have good enough playmaking ability to get away from NFL players, has a bad deep ball so let's work to his strength. Strong arm, some mobility, accurate up to 20 yards at all parts of the field. Time to Throw for Williams last 6 games: 3.44, 3.06, 3.47, 3.46, 2.83, 2.77. There asking him not to process and have simplified his reads so he cannot hold the ball so long.

Drake Maye? No limits on any offense, he can do it all so the OC has no limits and does not have to hide his weaknesses..

Just interesting that all the advanced data supports what I see on tape. Thus I'm buying it as having some accuracy.

A team pass block rate is typically calculated by dividing the total number of successful pass blocks by the total number of pass blocking attempts by the offensive line, where a "successful pass block" is defined as a block that prevents a defender from significantly impacting the quarterback within a set time frame, often around 2.5 seconds; essentially, it measures the percentage of pass plays where the offensive line successfully protected the quarterback

 

[The Gr8est]

Stats are pretty meaningless without context.
IMO It is not premature at all, a prospect of this caliber has rarely happened and the few times it has they've been stars.

Mac Jones had no arm strength, Mac Jones could not process, Mac Jones had no running ability, Mac Jones never took a crap team and played out of this world in college, Mac Jones was an old rookie. Mac Jones had a 10% chance of success in the NFL, Maye had a 95% chance of success.

Mac Jones was a bad prospect and was probably a 4th round pick at best, Drake Maye is a generational prospect.

Put Mac Jones on THIS TEAM his stats are closer to Jacoby Brissett.

I was on record of wanting to consider a trade down if we got overwhelmed with trade offers.

The offers were merely “whelming” and we were best served to stay put, particularly as we now see, there is no indication that Wolf would have used the picks well.

Of the three top QBs I liked Maye the most. I wasn’t a huge fan of Williams with concerns about his makeup, and I am still concerned about injuries with Daniels, not the type everyone gets, but the career threatening types that QBs with his build can get, and his advanced age.

The Pats were fortunate to get the best QB in the draft.

Now the challenge is to put the best supporting system around him from HC down to facilities.

I omit owners since we have no options there and are stuck with what we get.

 

[sb1]

Stats are pretty meaningless without context.
IMO It is not premature at all, a prospect of this caliber has rarely happened and the few times it has they've been stars.

Mac Jones had no arm strength, Mac Jones could not process, Mac Jones had no running ability, Mac Jones never took a crap team and played out of this world in college, Mac Jones was an old rookie. Mac Jones had a 10% chance of success in the NFL, Maye had a 95% chance of success.

Mac Jones was a bad prospect and was probably a 4th round pick at best, Drake Maye is a generational prospect.

Put Mac Jones on THIS TEAM his stats are closer to Jacoby Brissett.

True but it's just easy to remember how most of us were amped up for Mac after 6 games.

I think Jones went in the draft where he should have, as the 5th QB off the board. Unfortunately we needed a guy and he was there in the first round. I also think Bill liked that he was supposed to be polished and pro ready.

I hope you're right about Maye. His tendency to be strip sacked is on tape now - 3 in 4 games - and it's up to him to protect the ball better. Also hope he is taught to slide properly.

 

[sb1]

Lies, damn lies and statistics. That is a very interesting comparison that is not supported by the results of the eye test. The big difference between the two is that Mac was not asked to take risks and had a gameplan designed to protect him. He was so pampered that the team played not to lose and did not take any chances, even when playing from behind late in games. It is the complete opposite situation for Maye where he is being asked to be the offense with many, many plays breaking down requiring him to improvise. While it is something to watch, I am not too concerned about him trying to do too much because he really doesn't have much choice right now. As a raw rookie I would much rather have someone who does whatever he can to win than someone who plays like a victim of the players around him.

I'm not too worried about the late game INTs. It's all about him learning what to throw and not to throw at the NFL level and what professional defenses will do when you take chances that you shouldn't.

The strip sacks are a problem though, that means he's not protecting the ball well enough when getting hit. I bet teams will attack the ball when they get to him until he gets better at it.

 

[BTTA]

All this to be played out, of course.
Getting the Maye pick right, staying at #3 and focusing on that guy, was the most important pick for the Pats in two decades.
The only thing guaranteed about any of this is that posters here will find a way to belittle that accomplishment and it won't be mentioned at all in retrospective draft evaluations.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Yes, that's why he's unemployed, because he couldnt put up a decent draft to save his life.

2022 was awful, but look at 2023:

Round 1, Pick 17
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon Success​

• Round 2, Pick 46
  Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech Success
• 
  
• Round 3, Pick 76 (From CAR)
  Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State Success
• 
  
• Round 4, Pick 107 (From LAR)
  Jake Andrews, G, Troy Incomplete (injury)
• 
  
• Round 4, Pick 112 (From NYJ)
  Chad Ryland, K, Maryland Success (has got it together in his second season -- too late for NEP!)
• 
  
• Round 4, Pick 117
  Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan Incomplete
• 
  
• Round 5, Pick 144
  Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA Failure
• 
  
• Round 6, Pick 187 (From CAR)
  Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU Success
• 
  
• Round 6, Pick 192
  Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St. Success
• 
  
• Round 6, Pick 210*
  Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty Success
• 
  
• Round 6, Pick 214
  Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State Failure
• 
  
• Round 7, Pick 245 (From BUF via ATL)
  Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State Incomplete

Honestly, that looks like a great draft -- not just better than '22, but (from what we can see so far) better than '24.

 

[KCSVEN]

The strip sacks are a problem though, that means he's not protecting the ball well enough when getting hit. I bet teams will attack the ball when they get to him until he gets better at it.

He's shown the proper technique of 2 hands on the ball, he also has a good internal clock in his head and good pocket presence, so I don't expect that to be a long-term issue.

The sack fumble vs Rams was the fastest sack of the entire year by any defensive lineman in the NFL at 2.32 seconds. Maye can't be looking blindside for a rush, QB's that do that fail and your internal clock is telling you that you still have time to tuck it. Hard to blame him much for that 1.

Brady had 12 fumbles in 14 games his rookie year. Maye would be on pace for 12 fumbles in 16 games or thereabout.
Brady's 5th season he still fumbled 12 times in 16 games and had 4 of the first 5 season in double digit fumbles, then I remember he worked at it as a point of emphasis and never hit double digits again.

 

[Nehalem]

How is he more valuable than fellow rookie QB Jayden Daniels?

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I'm not too worried about the late game INTs. It's all about him learning what to throw and not to throw at the NFL level and what professional defenses will do when you take chances that you shouldn't.

The strip sacks are a problem though, that means he's not protecting the ball well enough when getting hit. I bet teams will attack the ball when they get to him until he gets better at it.

The strip stacks are also a function of bad OL play. I saw a breakdown of the most recent fumble that showed how the defender seemed to be blocked so it caught Maye by surprise. I am sure that he will get better at anticipating pressure, at least he shows reasonable care in how he holds the ball when on the move. None of that really matters, defenses are going attack anything that seems like a potential weakness. The hard part for Maye will be cutting down on the turnovers without losing his aggressiveness.

 

[KCSVEN]

How is he more valuable than fellow rookie QB Jayden Daniels?

Maye is more accurate, surprisingly a better runner, way better thrower. Daniels is only completing 60% of his passes since the Ravens gave the blueprint on defending him. Can't throw over the middle.
Daniels on tape is slow at processing, when he runs he almost never looks up and misses big plays all the time because of it. I think 1 game I read something like 95% of his passes travelled 5 yards or less.
Add to this he has 5 years of college experience, so upside is limited and is 2 years older than Maye.
I can't think of 1 thing Daniels does better than Maye.

Honestly it is not even remotely close on Maye over Daniels.

Maye would be drafted over Daniels today.

 

[The Gr8est]

He's shown the proper technique of 2 hands on the ball, he also has a good internal clock in his head and good pocket presence, so I don't expect that to be a long-term issue.

The sack fumble vs Rams was the fastest sack of the entire year by any defensive lineman in the NFL at 2.32 seconds. Maye can't be looking blindside for a rush, QB's that do that fail and your internal clock is telling you that you still have time to tuck it. Hard to blame him much for that 1.

Brady had 12 fumbles in 14 games his rookie year. Maye would be on pace for 12 fumbles in 16 games or thereabout.
Brady's 5th season he still fumbled 12 times in 16 games and had 4 of the first 5 season in double digit fumbles, then I remember he worked at it as a point of emphasis and never hit double digits again.

In true Brady magical fashion, as I recall the Pats recovered almost every one of his first year fumbles.

 

[aluminum seats]

And this is why many of us were rooting for losses last year, it was the only way to go

As fans of course we love this thread, it might be a little premature, but he looks good so far

The thing is, this league is SO close. Ultimately, when you care about rings the way this fanbase does, it comes down to what they do at the end. I love Joe Burrow, but the reality is there’s been a handful of times when he simply hasn’t gotten it done. And that’s what it comes down to in the end, whether or not you get it done. It’s binary. As @Ring 6 notes, he’s had a couple of chances and hasn’t come through. Of course he’s just getting started, but that’s ultimately what he will need to do to be the guy

 

[XLIX]

If we are being fair and honest....

It is easy to forget that Mac Jones had a damn decent rookie season. Statistically his rookie season was better than Maye's, even if you project Maye's stats out to 17 games.

Having said that, for reasons that remain unclear, Jones regressed significantly in year 2 and then significantly again in year 3 (and what little action he has seen in year 4 has been nothing short of a disaster).

Let us all have faith that Maye will not follow Jones' career trajectory. Just a slight improvement in year 2 for Maye will put him far ahead of where Jones was at the same point.

 

[NFL Mystique]

I like Maye. I do think he has the potential to be a top 5 QB. I worry if the coaching staff and supporting cast will be good enough to help him.

As far as being the most valuable asset in the league, that would be Mahomes until further notice.

 

[Grogan14]

How is he more valuable than fellow rookie QB Jayden Daniels?

Or even Bo Nix if we are completely honest. Maye’s stats are based on a very snall sample size.
Both Nix and Daniels have turned really bad teams around quickly.

Wins matter

 

[sb1]

Or even Bo Nix if we are completely honest. Maye’s stats are based on a very snall sample size.
Both Nix and Daniels have turned really bad teams around quickly.

Wins matter

Looks like I was wrong about Nix. Impressed with him.

Denver’s defense also has a lot to do with their turnaround. 2nd in points and 3rd in yards. Last season they were 27th in points. The Pats defense stinks. Hard for Maye to do much about that.

 

[KCSVEN]

Looks like I was wrong about Nix. Impressed with him.

Denver’s defense also has a lot to do with their turnaround. 2nd in points and 3rd in yards. Last season they were 27th in points. The Pats defense stinks. Hard for Maye to do much about that.

I've watched Nix's last 2 starts and a few earlier in the year. I watch almost all the rookie QB games to compare to Maye.
He's better than earlier in the year. Hard to say he's impressive. He throws mostly to wide open guys with all the time in the world. He has the #1 pass blocking line in the NFL. Plus a defense that gets him the ball.

I actually was playing a game of "could I make that throw" last game. I played QB way back in the day in Pop Warner football so that's my level LOL.
I would have completed 24 of his 28 completed passes with 2 others I had an outside shot at and 2 I would not have. I'm not kidding either. I really can't think of a starting QB that would have done much different than Nix did. He makes the plays he should, which he was not doing earlier in the year.
Many would say you can't knock him for making easy throws, I agree but you can't say he's any good until he has to regularly make non-easy throws. Any QB can make 1 or 2 tight throws but when you get to playoffs, the windows tighten more, ask Lamar Jackson.
Playing good against top defenses separates the QB's from being just another NFL starter vs good, great and elite.

Top 10 defenses for net yards per pass attempt:

Eagles, Texans, Broncos, Titans, Chargers, Jets, 49ers, Bills, Vikings, Giants

Bo Nix has played 2: Chargers, 19/33 57.57% with a pick and Jets: 12/25 68 yds 48%
Against good pass defense he's been putrid but small sample size.

Add the Steelers who have the second-best success rate on pass defense and he was 20/35 with 2 picks.

His only remaining game against top pass defense is the Chargers again, let's see how that goes.
I seriously think Mac Jones could do what he's been asked to do minus the moibility

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don't think Mac Jones had an offensive line as offensive as this one and a defense as bad as this one. Mac has Jacoby and Henry and non injured Bourne for majority of his time. Maye performing despite all these handicaps is what's impressive.

I agree but Mac has a better offensive line and more weapons in Jacksonville, and still sucks. Maybe the QB shining or failing is not as dependent on the cast around him as posters like to think?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I seriously think Mac Jones could do what he's been asked to do minus the mobility.

This is a clear indicator of a significant drinking problem. Please seek help.