Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[Hugepatsfan]

That would be a horrible pick.

Would it really? I don't pretend to be a draftnik, but NFL.com Daniel Jeramiah and the Athletic's Chad Graff both have him the #5 player in the draft. Hunter/Carter of course ahead and then both have Jeanty/Graham in the #3/#4 slots. Jeanty we've talked about the positional value argument against and Graham might not be a good fit with Williams/Barmore because of redundancy.

Walker is ranked in line with the #4 pick and plays a hugely valuable position? Do you just not like the player? Because based on the consensus rankings it feels like it'd be a very solid pick to me.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

People who think the Giants will take Carter are forgetting that they already have Thibodeaux and Brown at Edge.

No they're not. EDGE is one of those position you rotate players and if they're not taking a QB, who else are they gong to take there?

Only way they wouldn't take him in that case would probably be a trade back, in which case Carter is who the other team would be moving up for s kind of a moot point as it relates to us.

 

[Lansdowne]

People who think the Giants will take Carter are forgetting that they already have Thibodeaux and Brown at Edge.

Brian Burns but yeah they have him and Thibodeaux as their pass rush at the moment. They haven't exercised Thibo's 5th year option yet, and he's been an inconsistent performer for them. They have the option of trading him and drafting Carter as his replacement, effectively hitting the reset button with a new rookie contract. I don't think that's what they'll do, but it's a possibility.

 

[Huckleberry1]

No they're not. EDGE is one of those position you rotate players and if they're not taking a QB, who else are they gong to take there?

Only way they wouldn't take him in that case would probably be a trade back, in which case Carter is who the other team would be moving up for s kind of a moot point as it relates to us.

With as many needs as the Giants have adding a piece to the edge rotation is a luxury.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

With as many needs as the Giants have adding a piece to the edge rotation is a luxury.

Then they'd trade the pick to someone else who takes him. No team is taking anyone other than a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter.

Also, for whatever reason, this team thinks bad teams should draft for need. The rest of the world understands that if your team has a ton of needs then you suck and therefore should draft for BPA because you're chances don't look good anyway so you have to plan for a multi year effort by which time the roster will be turned over anyway and new needs will exist.

 

[DaBruinz]

Here's a dissenting view on the popular opinion of who is a "blue chip" player this year....

There may only be 2 in this draft, but I don't think it's Carter & Hunter.
It's Jeanty & Warren. Those are going to be "difference makers" on a team, and literally change outcomes of games.

My prediction: In 3 years, Carter & Hunter will not be pro-bowlers, but Jeanty & Warren will be.

Who cares about the Pro-Bowl. It's a worthless popularity contest that has no bearing on what players actually do on the field. So, attempting to use it to signify a level of excellence is laughable.

 

[DaBruinz]

This is a weak draft.

If we draft Campbell, we MIGHT solve LT for a decade, but if not we will have an All Pro LG for a decade.

Campbell would fit in with the culture that Vrabel’s is trying to build, and short of a catastrophic injury, will NOT be a bust.

We may not be able to leverage the pick as we would like, but Campbell would not be a disaster for the reasons mentioned.

Claiming that it's a "weak draft" because there aren't 30 blue-chippers is as ridiculous as someone attempting to use Pro-Bowl selections as a sign of excellence.

The draft may not have a ton of blue-chippers, but it has a ton of players the next level down who will be long-term starters in the league. We're talking 3+ rounds of players who will be starter quality. Usually, you're lucky to get through the 2nd round with starter quality players.

 

[Lansdowne]

One thing we have on our side is the Giants have been on something of a stretch of making bad decisions.

Reaching on Daniel Jones in 2019, a pick that was ridiculed when it happened (Jones was widely considered a 2nd or 3rd round prospect and the Giants took him 6th overall).

Prioritizing Jones over Barkley when it came time to pay someone to stick around, despite Jones putting up pedestrian numbers.

Neither extending nor trading Barkley and letting him go for nothing, and to their division rival no less.

The Giants are still hungry for a long term solution at QB, and are salty about RB. Shedeur Sanders or Ashton Jeanty may be considered reaches if the Giants took either at 3, but it would also be on-brand for them.

Sharing this video because it makes me smile

 

[40yrpatsfan]

1) People really overstate the idea that his "floor" or "fallback" is that he simply switches positions and is an all pro there. That's not how it works.

2) The Athletic is one ranking. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah though, as an example, has him 10th. Ultimately, the team needs to do their own ranking. They could rank him even higher than the Athletic or even lower than NFL.com. And then as fans, we can't cling to one site and make that the authority prospect ranking to support our stance while ignoring those that don't agree with us.

3) Getting the 6th best player at #4 absolutely can be a huge overpay depending on the specifics. There's not always an equal gap from 1 to 2 as there is from 2 to 3 or 3 to 4 and so on. For example, most here have Hunter and Carter as the #1 and #2 non-QBs. Assuming Ward goes #1, we're still going to have our pick of the #3 non-QB prospect. are distraught that we're not getting Carter or Hunter because most perceive a huge drop off going form the top 2 to the 3rd ranked player. Even using the ranking you cited with Campbell at #6 player, there could be a huge drop off from #5 to him. It's also worth noting that they don't have Ward ranked above Campbell even though he's going to go #1, so even though getting #6 at #4 seems very close, it's really saying that they'd pass on 3 better ranked prospects per that list and depending on how wide the gap is between players it could end up being a very significant reach.

But “reach” is only in the context of when someone else would take him. If 10 different sources rank him at 6 and we take him at 4, it’s not a reach if another team would take him at 5.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Then they'd trade the pick to someone else who takes him. No team is taking anyone other than a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter.

Also, for whatever reason, this team thinks bad teams should draft for need. The rest of the world understands that if your team has a ton of needs then you suck and therefore should draft for BPA because you're chances don't look good anyway so you have to plan for a multi year effort by which time the roster will be turned over anyway and new needs will exist.

Wolf definitely did that last year, and other than Maye it didn’t go well. I don’t think that is how this front office looks at it, and Wolf is now just one voice, not the decision maker. They may go need at 4 because left tackle is so bad, but in free agency they went where the talent was, defense, not for their biggest needs, which were devoid of talent.

 

[Huckleberry1]

But “reach” is only in the context of when someone else would take him. If 10 different sources rank him at 6 and we take him at 4, it’s not a reach if another team would take him at 5.

Agree completely. Reach is when a team ignores their board and goes need over prospects they have rated higher, not in relation to where draft analysts have them.

 

[Huckleberry1]

One thing we have on our side is the Giants have been on something of a stretch of making bad decisions.

Reaching on Daniel Jones in 2019, a pick that was ridiculed when it happened (Jones was widely considered a 2nd or 3rd round prospect and the Giants took him 6th overall).

Prioritizing Jones over Barkley when it came time to pay someone to stick around, despite Jones putting up pedestrian numbers.

Neither extending nor trading Barkley and letting him go for nothing, and to their division rival no less.

The Giants are still hungry for a long term solution at QB, and are salty about RB. Shedeur Sanders or Ashton Jeanty may be considered reaches if the Giants took either at 3, but it would also be on-brand for them.

Sharing this video because it makes me smile

Not too mention letting Xavier McKinley walk. I can’t believe Joe Schoen has a job.

 

[DaBruinz]

Then they'd trade the pick to someone else who takes him. No team is taking anyone other than a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter.

Also, for whatever reason, this team thinks bad teams should draft for need. The rest of the world understands that if your team has a ton of needs then you suck and therefore should draft for BPA because you're chances don't look good anyway so you have to plan for a multi year effort by which time the roster will be turned over anyway and new needs will exist.

For whatever reason, people like yourself don't pay attention to what drafting ONLY BPA results in. Go look at the Detroit Lions from 2003 - 2005. They drafted strictly off of BPA from their board. They got 3 WRs. None of them lived up to expectations and it set Detroit back years.

Your claim that "no team is taking anyone but a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter" is as flawed as the idea that a team that sucks should only draft BPA regardless of what their current roster looks like. What good does it do to draft someone who will be stuck behind 2 other players as good or better than the guy you're drafting?

There are numerous pundits out there that believe that Jeanty is a better talent than Carter, Hunter or Graham. And, most certainly, better than Ward or Sanders.

The Browns and Giants both have need for a RB. The Browns also have need at LB and WR. The Giants have need LB and IOL. By LB, I mean a player who is not an Edge Rusher..

Both the Giants and Browns know that this is not a strong draft for QBs. So why make that pick?

The Giants have 3 QBs in Devito, Wilson and Winston. The latter two they added in Free Agency. The message, to me, is that they intend to NOT take a QB.

The Browns have an albetross of a contract with Watson that precludes them from ditching him before 2027. It makes no financial sense for them to invest in a top 3 QB pick in a weak class.


Lastly. What 20 years of following the draft has taught me is that the fans don't get 1/3 of the information that the teams do. That there are always surprises because the fans don't get that information.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Agree completely. Reach is when a team ignores their board and goes need over prospects they have rated higher, not in relation to where draft analysts have them.

Yes. One other aspect is that sometimes there are exceptions when need should override bpa, and tbh our need at LT is so dire that we’re sort of in that boat this year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yes. One other aspect is that sometimes there are exceptions when need should override bpa, and tbh our need at LT is so dire that we’re sort of in that boat this year.

Agree. Otherwise I think going BPA in the draft, and where the talent is in free agency is the best offseason approach. And much as I think most here would hate it I could see using their 2nd pick on a defensive tackle could make some sense, as there will be really good ones on the board. Same goes st running back, especially if Hampton is still there. Get the best players where you can get them.

 

[DaBruinz]

One thing we have on our side is the Giants have been on something of a stretch of making bad decisions.

Reaching on Daniel Jones in 2019, a pick that was ridiculed when it happened (Jones was widely considered a 2nd or 3rd round prospect and the Giants took him 6th overall).

Prioritizing Jones over Barkley when it came time to pay someone to stick around, despite Jones putting up pedestrian numbers.

Neither extending nor trading Barkley and letting him go for nothing, and to their division rival no less.

The Giants are still hungry for a long term solution at QB, and are salty about RB. Shedeur Sanders or Ashton Jeanty may be considered reaches if the Giants took either at 3, but it would also be on-brand for them.

Sharing this video because it makes me smile

The Giants added WIlson and Winston this off-season. I think that sends the message that they have no intention of drafting a QB in the Top 3 with such a weak QB Class,

I think that the only reason people aren't using the phrase "Potential Bust" around Shedeur Sanders is because of Deion.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The Giants added WIlson and Winston this off-season. I think that sends the message that they have no intention of drafting a QB in the Top 3 with such a weak QB Class,

I think that the only reason people aren't using the phrase "Potential Bust" around Shedeur Sanders is because of Deion.

He looks like a Geno Smith to me. He’ll be good.

 

[silentone]

For whatever reason, people like yourself don't pay attention to what drafting ONLY BPA results in. Go look at the Detroit Lions from 2003 - 2005. They drafted strictly off of BPA from their board. They got 3 WRs. None of them lived up to expectations and it set Detroit back years.

Your claim that "no team is taking anyone but a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter" is as flawed as the idea that a team that sucks should only draft BPA regardless of what their current roster looks like. What good does it do to draft someone who will be stuck behind 2 other players as good or better than the guy you're drafting?

There are numerous pundits out there that believe that Jeanty is a better talent than Carter, Hunter or Graham. And, most certainly, better than Ward or Sanders.

The Browns and Giants both have need for a RB. The Browns also have need at LB and WR. The Giants have need LB and IOL. By LB, I mean a player who is not an Edge Rusher..

Both the Giants and Browns know that this is not a strong draft for QBs. So why make that pick?

The Giants have 3 QBs in Devito, Wilson and Winston. The latter two they added in Free Agency. The message, to me, is that they intend to NOT take a QB.

The Browns have an albetross of a contract with Watson that precludes them from ditching him before 2027. It makes no financial sense for them to invest in a top 3 QB pick in a weak class.


Lastly. What 20 years of following the draft has taught me is that the fans don't get 1/3 of the information that the teams do. That there are always surprises because the fans don't get that information.

Point taken on pure definition of BPA.
In general, I believe teams, especially rebuilding teams like the Pats, should draft the player(s) that they believe add the greatest expected surplus value. Some, but not all, of the factors this could include are

- positional values
- roster construction
- internal draft ratings of the prospects
- positional depth in the current draft
- positional depth in upcoming draft(s)

 

[SlowGettingUp]

He has Campbell 10th best player

And this is his conclusion:

>>He is just scratching the surface of his potential and should start at tackle for a decade, provided he stays healthy.

I'll take that any day.

 

[Kdo5]

If we’re truly going BPA the pick would be Carter (if there), Jeanty, or Walker before I took Campbell/Membou