Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[Huckleberry1]

And this is his conclusion:

>>He is just scratching the surface of his potential and should start at tackle for a decade, provided he stays healthy.

I'll take that any day.

I think what people are missing with Campbell is the kind of kid he is. He’s only 21, he’s got a really high football IQ, and has a reputation as a hard worker. He’s also 6’6 320, with room to add muscle in the pro’s. I think he will take to coaching, work his ass off, and become a really good NFL tackle.

 

[goheels22002]

Just draft Kelvin Banks, Jr. - LT, Texas. His arm length is 7/8" longer than Will Campbell.

He's like a giant squid out there. 20-0!

 

[Triumph]

Of course not but I am mad I didn't freeze everything just before Trump took office. I'm sure everyone had the same thoughts. But who am I to speculate just play the long game.

Why not freeze everything when the market comes back to where it was on January 20, 2025?

You shouldn't have to wait long.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Just draft Kelvin Banks, Jr. - LT, Texas. His arm length is 7/8" longer than Will Campbell.

He's like a giant squid out there. 20-0!

Wow a whole 7/8" longer. That makes all the difference in the world. I see the light.

 

[Triumph]

LT is the Pats greatest need.

Not WR.

There is such a shortage of solid LTs throughout the NFL. It just cost KC a Super Bowl AGAIN. With the current NFL trend of pass rushers coming out of the woodwork, drafting a WR will have poor return if there is no time to throw. Some teams will likely try to emulate the Eagles front 4. Example - If the Browns draft Carter and he is as good as advertised.

I don't expect the Pats to be drafting top 5 again 2026 draft. At least 3 of these 2025 picks have to count and produce starters.

 

[signbabybrady]

Why not freeze everything when the market comes back to where it was on January 20, 2025?

You shouldn't have to wait long.

That's kind of why I didn't freeze because then what. Then I have to choose when to get back in and all that and so I just play the long game.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I think what people are missing with Campbell is the kind of kid he is. He’s only 21, he’s got a really high football IQ, and has a reputation as a hard worker. He’s also 6’6 320, with room to add muscle in the pro’s. I think he will take to coaching, work his ass off, and become a really good NFL tackle.

How did you reach the conclusion that Campbell is a better kid or had a higher football IQ or is a harder worker or will take better to coaching than any of the other prospects?

 

[Huckleberry1]

How did you reach the conclusion that Campbell is a better kid or had a higher football IQ or is a harder worker or will take better to coaching than any of the other prospects?

I never said than the other prospects. And I reached that conclusion by listening to multiple podcasts from Sikkema and Co.on the NFL Stock Exchange and PFF Offensive line rankings, as well as the podcasts with Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, and Kiper and Field Yates. They are all readily available to listen to, and the Stock Exchange and PFF podcasts in particular go into detail on all the top OL prospects. Feel free to go listen to them and make your own decision on any or all of them.

 

[jdlboot14]

Who cares about the Pro-Bowl. It's a worthless popularity contest that has no bearing on what players actually do on the field. So, attempting to use it to signify a level of excellence is laughable.

You missed the point. I don't care about the flag football game in Orlando. I'm talking about being the top 5 at their position across the league. I am confident that Jeanty & Warren will be top 5 at their position in 3 years. But, I guarantee Hunter & Carter won't be at WR & DE. (maybe if both switch to CB & WLB respectively they may - but that's not why we'd draft either)

 

[goheels22002]

LT is the Pats greatest need.

Not WR.

There is such a shortage of solid LTs throughout the NFL. It just cost KC a Super Bowl AGAIN. With the current NFL trend of pass rushers coming out of the woodwork, drafting a WR will have poor return if there is no time to throw. Some teams will likely try to emulate the Eagles front 4. Example - If the Browns draft Carter and he is as good as advertised.

I don't expect the Pats to be drafting top 5 again 2026 draft. At least 3 of these 2025 picks have to count and produce starters.

I totally agree that this is foundational draft opportunity near the top of each round. I have been writing about drafting OL for months - particularly if there is a Tackle who can be a building block for the next several years. There are three or four top-flight OTs in this draft who will be drafted before the Patriots get to draft in Round 2. Frankly, any of them is a solid pick.

All this talk of trading down with the #4 overall pick seems foolish to me given the fact that the Patriots have landed foundational players with Drake Maye, Christian Barmore, and Christian Gonzalez with first round selections - key positions of need at the time of their selections. All three guys are 24-years-old or younger. An offensive tackle who can contribute immediately with tutoring from Morgan Moses is the best move.

If they want to wheel and deal a bit at the top of the 2nd round or 3rd round, they should go for it to add some future picks and a couple of players they really want including veterans. Remember, they got Randy Moss for a 4th round pick from Oakland. Some of these higher priced guys on other teams will be available for a 3rd or 4th round selection. I'd love to see them get one veteran receiver in that WR with Pop Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Javon Parker.

 

[goheels22002]

I think what people are missing with Campbell is the kind of kid he is. He’s only 21, he’s got a really high football IQ, and has a reputation as a hard worker. He’s also 6’6 320, with room to add muscle in the pro’s. I think he will take to coaching, work his ass off, and become a really good NFL tackle.

So are OTs Kelvin Banks, Jr. (Texas), Armond Membou (Missouri), Josh Simmons (Ohio State) and the big kid from North Dakota State Gray Zabel who has played all three OL positions against lesser competition. There are lots of quality OTs in this draft. I think a lot depends on how well the line will be coached this year by Doug Marrone. The OL coaching last year was abysmal. Marrone has more experience at this level, but no one is ever going to be as good as Dante Scarnecchia.

 

[Huckleberry1]

So are OTs Kelvin Banks, Jr. (Texas), Armond Membou (Missouri), Josh Simmons (Ohio State) and the big kid from North Dakota State Gray Zabel who has played all three OL positions against lesser competition. There are lots of quality OTs in this draft. I think a lot depends on how well the line will be coached this year by Doug Marrone. The OL coaching last year was abysmal. Marrone has more experience at this level, but no one is ever going to be as good as Dante Scarnecchia.

Unfortunately there have been some character concerns talked about with Simmons lately, but I have no idea if they are actually true or not. Zabel isn’t very likely to play tackle in the NFL, but I love him as a kid who can play anywhere in a pinch. I haven’t heard anything negative on Membou or Conerly, and both have big upsides. Banks is also a good prospect .

 

[goheels22002]

For whatever reason, people like yourself don't pay attention to what drafting ONLY BPA results in. Go look at the Detroit Lions from 2003 - 2005. They drafted strictly off of BPA from their board. They got 3 WRs. None of them lived up to expectations and it set Detroit back years.

Your claim that "no team is taking anyone but a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter" is as flawed as the idea that a team that sucks should only draft BPA regardless of what their current roster looks like. What good does it do to draft someone who will be stuck behind 2 other players as good or better than the guy you're drafting?

There are numerous pundits out there that believe that Jeanty is a better talent than Carter, Hunter or Graham. And, most certainly, better than Ward or Sanders.

The Browns and Giants both have need for a RB. The Browns also have need at LB and WR. The Giants have need LB and IOL. By LB, I mean a player who is not an Edge Rusher..

Both the Giants and Browns know that this is not a strong draft for QBs. So why make that pick?

The Giants have 3 QBs in Devito, Wilson and Winston. The latter two they added in Free Agency. The message, to me, is that they intend to NOT take a QB.

The Browns have an albetross of a contract with Watson that precludes them from ditching him before 2027. It makes no financial sense for them to invest in a top 3 QB pick in a weak class.


Lastly. What 20 years of following the draft has taught me is that the fans don't get 1/3 of the information that the teams do. That there are always surprises because the fans don't get that information.

Good analysis, and I have been banging the drum for OL to protect Drake Maye and open holes for the running backs. BPA this year is a crap shoot since none of the top four or five guys are locks to be successful. Neither QB (Ward or Sanders) would go top five last year. Hunter is a mystery to everyone regarding where his skills are best deployed. Abdul Carter will be a good pro, but he'll need to be in the right defense to truly excel with quality DL around him. (I think he'd be great in a Mike Vrabel defense that will be all about mucking up the pocket on passing downs.) But first and foremost they need to give Drake Maye time to do his thing.

I disagree on the NY Giants, by the way. I think they'll draft a QB - just not Sanders. Kyle McCord from Syracuse is underrated and would be great with the Giants. He can be had in the 4th round.

 

[goheels22002]

Unfortunately there have been some character concerns talked about with Simmons lately, but I have no idea if they are actually true or not. Zabel isn’t very likely to play tackle in the NFL, but I love him as a kid who can play anywhere in a pinch. I haven’t heard anything negative on Membou or Conerly, and both have big upsides. Banks is also a good prospect .

The rap on Conerly is that he can get pushed around and doesn't have the strength to set a solid base in pocket pass protection. That's one of the issues with a lot of guys from Oregon who don't have to hold a block in the fast-paced offense they run there.

Zabel is projected to go early. My guess is that he may go to a team like the Eagles or Chargers who have good lines with some depth issues. Too bad that the Patriots don't have that kind of luxury any more late in the second round.

Simmons falling to Patriots at #38 is pretty interesting with Moses Morgan and Doug Marrone there to teach him and keep him in line. He's recovering "ahead of schedule" from his knee injury and a few mocks have him going to the Chiefs.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I totally agree that this is foundational draft opportunity near the top of each round. I have been writing about drafting OL for months - particularly if there is a Tackle who can be a building block for the next several years. There are three or four top-flight OTs in this draft who will be drafted before the Patriots get to draft in Round 2. Frankly, any of them is a solid pick.

All this talk of trading down with the #4 overall pick seems foolish to me given the fact that the Patriots have landed foundational players with Drake Maye, Christian Barmore, and Christian Gonzalez with first round selections - key positions of need at the time of their selections. All three guys are 24-years-old or younger. An offensive tackle who can contribute immediately with tutoring from Morgan Moses is the best move.

If they want to wheel and deal a bit at the top of the 2nd round or 3rd round, they should go for it to add some future picks and a couple of players they really want including veterans. Remember, they got Randy Moss for a 4th round pick from Oakland. Some of these higher priced guys on other teams will be available for a 3rd or 4th round selection. I'd love to see them get one veteran receiver in that WR with Pop Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Javon Parker.

Yeah but if the trade down is from 4 to say 10 or 12, that's still a higher pick than any we've had in recent memory except Maye last year. Gonzalez was 17th I believe, and Barmore was around 38.

The decision revolves around how much better the Pats see Campbell (or Membou if they prefer) than say Banks or Simmons who are projected to last until mid-1st round and would be there for us if we trade down. If we can pick up an extra second, is that pick worth more than the delta between Campbell and Banks/Simmons? A 2nd round pick gives us either an additional good player, or the capital to pick again in the 15-20 range instead of 38.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The rap on Conerly is that he can get pushed around and doesn't have the strength to set a solid base in pocket pass protection. That's one of the issues with a lot of guys from Oregon who don't have to hold a block in the fast-paced offense they run there.

Zabel is projected to go early. My guess is that he may go to a team like the Eagles or Chargers who have good lines with some depth issues. Too bad that the Patriots don't have that kind of luxury any more late in the second round.

Simmons falling to Patriots at #36 is pretty interesting with Moses Morgan and Doug Marrone there to teach him and keep him in line. He's recovering "ahead of schedule" from his knee injury and a few mocks have him going to the Chiefs.

Agree with all of that, however the reports I heard on Conerly was that his playing strength improved dramatically in 24’, but still needs work at the pro level. The same knock they put in Simmons, but said he as well improved his playing strength in the games he played in 24’, but still needs to get stronger and nastier. Of all of them Membou is the one who is credited for the best playing strength, and his desire to put defenders on their backs.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yeah but if the trade down is from 4 to say 10 or 12, that's still a higher pick than any we've had in recent memory except Maye last year. Gonzalez was 17th I believe, and Barmore was around 38.

The decision revolves around how much better the Pats see Campbell (or Membou if they prefer) than say Banks or Simmons who are projected to last until mid-1st round and would be there for us if we trade down. If we can pick up an extra second, is that pick worth more than the delta between Campbell and Banks/Simmons? A 2nd round pick gives us either an additional good player, or the capital to pick again in the 15-20 range instead of 38.

That’s exactly the calculation. Campbell and Membou could possibly be gone by 10, but the rest should be there.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

For whatever reason, people like yourself don't pay attention to what drafting ONLY BPA results in. Go look at the Detroit Lions from 2003 - 2005. They drafted strictly off of BPA from their board. They got 3 WRs. None of them lived up to expectations and it set Detroit back years.

That's not a BPA vs. need issue. That's a "they drafted 3 players who sucked" issue. Whether you go BPA on your board or off of team need, you have a problem if the player you take sucks. That's universal. Drafting players who suck is a bad outcome whatever the process was.

Your claim that "no team is taking anyone but a QB ahead of Hunter/Carter" is as flawed as the idea that a team that sucks should only draft BPA regardless of what their current roster looks like. What good does it do to draft someone who will be stuck behind 2 other players as good or better than the guy you're drafting?

Teams play more than 2 DEs. Many teams use 3 at a time in pass rush situations. Carter would not be "stuck" behind anyone. There is no "stuck behind someone" at that position. That's why it's not relevant for him as an EDGE player. If we were talking about a team taking an OT where they already had 2 proven starters or a TE where they already had one and they weren't a consistent 2 TE type of offense or a C where they already had one, so on and so forth... then you have a point. But a position like EDGE, the whole concept of being blocked by someone is moot.

There are numerous pundits out there that believe that Jeanty is a better talent than Carter, Hunter or Graham. And, most certainly, better than Ward or Sanders.

The Browns and Giants both have need for a RB. The Browns also have need at LB and WR. The Giants have need LB and IOL. By LB, I mean a player who is not an Edge Rusher..

Both the Giants and Browns know that this is not a strong draft for QBs. So why make that pick?

The Giants have 3 QBs in Devito, Wilson and Winston. The latter two they added in Free Agency. The message, to me, is that they intend to NOT take a QB.

The Browns have an albetross of a contract with Watson that precludes them from ditching him before 2027. It makes no financial sense for them to invest in a top 3 QB pick in a weak class.


Lastly. What 20 years of following the draft has taught me is that the fans don't get 1/3 of the information that the teams do. That there are always surprises because the fans don't get that information.

QB is the one position where reaching for need makes sense. If NYG or CLE think Sanders is a legit option there then that justifies passing on Carter or Hunter. It wouldn't make sense for anyone else. Maybe there are outliers, but you'd be hard pressed to find anyone reputable who's seriously peddling the idea of drafting any other non QB prospect over Hunter/Carter. Jeanty is probably the one guy people might think is better at their position, but there's the positional value argument there. It's still a very minority opinion to have anyone other than Hunter/Carter as #1/#2 on your big board though.

 

[maust]

Simmons falling to Patriots at #36 is pretty interesting...

That is particularly interesting, since the Pats pick at 38 not 36

 

[Spiral]

Normally you wouldn't expect a team like the NYG, with a coach and a GM on the ropes, to draft a QB. However, Mara has said that their #1 off season priority is to get a QB. Given the mistake the GM and coach made last year with Saquon, I doubt they go against the owner this time.