Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[Pape]

I heard that Simmons is Trent Brown 2.0. Great player, total headcase.

That is the rumor going around... Is it true or a smokescreen, with some team spreading rumors trying to get him to drop into the low first? Still is the best LT in the draft... Big, strong, was able to move well in space prior to the knee injury... Which is the biggest knock right now...

As i said before i don't think we will take him at 4... Too much of a risk due to the knee... simply because every injured player is ahead of their rehab schedule until they aren't... IF we find a trade back partner, mid first-ish, he checks the box as both position of need & bpa...

Who ever we pick, thats who we pick... I'd prefer a LT... But who ever it is, i hope they succeed...

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

There are always trade down options. It only takes one team to want to move up and get a guy he value.

I am not so sure. I suspect that the Patriots tried to trade down in 2022 instead of taking Strange but could not work out a deal. Hopefully you are right for 2025 and the Patriots can get a fair deal, but I have to wonder at after last years debacle.

This may have been the case last year when they ended up with Polk; I wonder if they wanted to trade down again after they realized that the first trade down was a mistake and they whiffed on a McConkey....but in general that whole draft was cluster-bleep after round 1.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

If the following assumptions are true...
- that Carter and Hunter are gone in the top 3
- that the Pats feel the urgency to draft a top OT
- that they have Campbell & Membou ranked in the top 8, with the other top OT's in the 15-30 range
...then we can only risk trading down 1 spot if we want to be really careful, and maybe 2-3 spots at most.
If we also assume that the Jags-Raiders-Jets won't want to move up, then we stay at 4, take the OT we want, and feel good about it.

Alternatively...
- if we feel there are several other worthy targets in the top 10-12 - e.g., Warren or Jeanty or Tet
- and if we feel we can score a good enough OT between 20 and 38
- and if we can get a decent return by trading down to 10 or 12 (min 2nd rounder)
...then we make that trade, take one of those other targets, then use the extra second or one of our 3rd's to trade up from 38 to take the tackle

Either way, we MUST get the tackle.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The Athletic top 100 (not based on a prediction of where they are picked) - they rate the two OT's surprisingly high:

Hunter, Carter, Jeanty, Graham, Walker, Campbell, Membou, Warren, Stewart, Green, Loveland, McMillan, Ward.

(likely paywall)

The Top 100 prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft - The Beast - The Athletic

NFL Draft 2025 prospect rankings for the top 100 players, ranked by Dane Brugler.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Huckleberry1]

The Athletic top 100 (not based on a prediction of where they are picked) - they rate the two OT's surprisingly high:

Hunter, Carter, Jeanty, Graham, Walker, Campbell, Membou, Warren, Stewart, Green, Loveland, McMillan, Ward.

(likely paywall)

The Top 100 prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft - The Beast - The Athletic

NFL Draft 2025 prospect rankings for the top 100 players, ranked by Dane Brugler.

www.nytimes.com

The only people trashing Campbell are on this board, and that’s because they want a wide receiver and are willing to take one who is lazy as **** and can’t get open to fill their wide receiver fantasies.

 

[PatsFan2]

Word on the streets is that Carter and Hunter won't be there. The memory of Jerod Mayo lives on.

 

[Love The Drake]

Word on the streets is that Carter and Hunter won't be there. The memory of Jerod Mayo lives on.

It sure does,

 

[PatsFan2]

It sure does,

I hope the back up plan is not a Tackle @ 4... I would be tempted to take either King Tet or Warren @ 4.

 

[XLIX]

here's the thing.....

I now firmly believe that both Carter and Hunter will be gone and it is a bad year to have the 4th pick when there are only 3 Blue Chip athletes.

I said the exact same thing. I wonder if you'll get the same sarcastic response I received...

 

[Huckleberry1]

What’s going to happen if BOTH hunter and Carter are available at 4?

I actually think Vrabel would take Carter. From the moves they have made this offseason it appears that Vrabel is going to predicate his defense on pressure, and forcing Quarterbacks to throw into what they feel is a really good secondary, and turn the ball over. Carter would take this from a good to very good pass rush to a great one, and give them four edge guys they can rotate consistently. ( Carter, White, Landry, and Chiasson)

They could still get their tackle with their 2nd pick, but wide receiver would have to wait until the late second, or early 3rd round.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

The only people trashing Campbell are on this board, and that’s because they want a wide receiver and are willing to take one who is lazy as **** and can’t get open to fill their wide receiver fantasies.

I don't think the discussion about Campbell on here is even about Campbell. It's more draft philosophy. I've honestly yet to see someone here pound the table for Campbell actually tout him as a great prospect. Many of the people who want him are freely and openly calling him a mid LT prospect and saying that they don't care because we need one and we should draft for need. The pushback is more on that philosophy as just a mind numbingly awful way to approach the draft than it is pushback specifically picking Campbell.

Once you really break down all the prospects, it seems to be a very underwhelming class in this range of the draft. So if they are forced to stay at #4, Campbell might very well be the BPA or close enough to it to take him on account of need. That's not mutually exclusive with him being a mid LT prospect.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I don't think the discussion about Campbell on here is even about Campbell. It's more draft philosophy. I've honestly yet to see someone here pound the table for Campbell actually tout him as a great prospect. Many of the people who want him are freely and openly calling him a mid LT prospect and saying that they don't care because we need one and we should draft for need. The pushback is more on that philosophy as just a mind numbingly awful way to approach the draft than it is pushback specifically picking Campbell.

Once you really break down all the prospects, it seems to be a very underwhelming class in this range of the draft. So if they are forced to stay at #4, Campbell might very well be the BPA or close enough to it to take him on account of need. That's not mutually exclusive with him being a mid LT prospect.

Overall I think you are pretty accurate, and I think the concerns with Campbell are fine, he would be something of an outlier. My comment however was directed at the people trying to claim that he “ struggled” at LSU, which is complete and utter ********. Campbell had a distinguished career at LSU, and has been consistently considered the best OL in this draft for the past year, and those who have been following this draft over that time know this. Is he a Joe Alt prospect, nope, he doesn’t have that kind of All Pro upside, but neither is he the “ huge red flag risk” that some here are trying to portray him as. In truth he’s the safe pick at 4, as almost everyone acknowledges, but may have to move inside to realize his full potential. And the few here who have tried to characterize Campbell as a “ big risk” are mostly trying to do so because they want the Patriots to take Teteroia MacMillan at 4, which imo is the real big mistake.

One thing is certain, this is going to be a really interesting draft, and Patriot fans are going to be glued to the TV for at least the first four picks, and possibly more if they trade back. And no matter who they take there will be pissed off Patriot fans, as people have strong feelings for and against a number of the possible picks. Looking forward to see what happens.

 

[jdlboot14]

Here's a dissenting view on the popular opinion of who is a "blue chip" player this year....

There may only be 2 in this draft, but I don't think it's Carter & Hunter.
It's Jeanty & Warren. Those are going to be "difference makers" on a team, and literally change outcomes of games.

My prediction: In 3 years, Carter & Hunter will not be pro-bowlers, but Jeanty & Warren will be.

 

[Wozzy]

There’s only 3 bluechippers… says who?

 

[Love The Drake]

I could see Vrabel viewing Jeanty as his Henry, Barkley, back.
It wouldn’t shock me but 4 seems early now a trade down to 6 or 7 I could see taking him.

 

[Brotherblues]

Cheer up Sam.

There will be a good player to take at 4. There's likely to be a good player at 38 too, or with a trade up.

Getting anything after that is like finding golden nuggets in a manure cart. Nice if it happens, but can't get too down if all you get is crap.

Look at the big picture: The team is still vastly improved at every level, from player to coaching personnel to culture. It's night and day. We obsess over the details here, but all in all there's a lot to feel good about with the Patriots these days.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Cheer up Sam.

There will be a good player to take at 4. There's likely to be a good player at 38 too, or with a trade up.

Getting anything after that is like finding golden nuggets in a manure cart. Nice if it happens, but can't get too down if all you get is crap.

Look at the big picture: The team is still vastly improved at every level, from player to coaching personnel to culture. It's night and day. We obsess over the details here, but all in all there's a lot to feel good about with the Patriots these days.

Lmao. If I didn’t have a really good reason for being Huckleberry I would immediately change my username to Cheer Up Sam.

 

[The Gr8est]

If the following assumptions are true...
- that Carter and Hunter are gone in the top 3
- that the Pats feel the urgency to draft a top OT
- that they have Campbell & Membou ranked in the top 8, with the other top OT's in the 15-30 range
...then we can only risk trading down 1 spot if we want to be really careful, and maybe 2-3 spots at most.
If we also assume that the Jags-Raiders-Jets won't want to move up, then we stay at 4, take the OT we want, and feel good about it.

Alternatively...
- if we feel there are several other worthy targets in the top 10-12 - e.g., Warren or Jeanty or Tet
- and if we feel we can score a good enough OT between 20 and 38
- and if we can get a decent return by trading down to 10 or 12 (min 2nd rounder)
...then we make that trade, take one of those other targets, then use the extra second or one of our 3rd's to trade up from 38 to take the tackle

Either way, we MUST get the tackle.

This is a weak draft.

If we draft Campbell, we MIGHT solve LT for a decade, but if not we will have an All Pro LG for a decade.

Campbell would fit in with the culture that Vrabel’s is trying to build, and short of a catastrophic injury, will NOT be a bust.

We may not be able to leverage the pick as we would like, but Campbell would not be a disaster for the reasons mentioned.

 

[DarrylS]

My take on #4 is that Hunter and Carter will be gone, so go with Jeanty... then at 38 Conerly, Jackson or Ersery will probably be available..
My guess is that Vrabel looks upon Jeanty like a Derrick Henry..
I am not convinced on Hunter, how about if he has a soreass because he can't play D... If he were to say "I am going to focus on being the best WR" then things might be different..

 

[signbabybrady]

Sanders sucks.

His Pappy is out there trying to keep his stock up.

Nobody out there trying to keep my stocks up