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Honestly, I’d much rather draft Smith over Waddle. Waddle is a one trick pony; even if that “one trick” is Hill-esque. If he suffers another/or major injury, then what? Smith can actually run crisp routes, has been relatively healthy & won the Heisman as a WR. If we’re looking for elite speed AND routes, take Rondale Moore (Purdue).
 
REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.
I can't think of any reason we wouldn't take a WR in the first round that doesn't also apply to TE, unless you're specifically talking about Pitts.
 
REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.
Truth be told, we have no idea if this is true or not.

They may trade up - maybe even to grab a non-QB they love. They may trade down to add a 2nd or 3rd. They might take Chase, Smith, Waddle, or Pitts if the opportunity presents itself, or they might not.

We really have no idea of what they're planning. Other teams sometimes tip their hands, but the Pats don't, and we've never seen an off-season like this, a sense of urgency like this, or a need for a QB like this.

(And jah, if Pitts was there, I'd grab him.)
 
REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.

Probably not but I wouldn’t be so certain.

I just have a feeling that Smith is going to ball out and be the best WR in this class, silencing the doubters about his size. It wouldn’t shock me if Bill and Co. are floored by his releases and route running and consider him to be a truly “special” player whom they can’t pass up, if he drops to 15 (unlikely).
 
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REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.
But what if he is the best player available on their board? As much as I don't want Bill to burn a high pick on a CB, he may the highest player available when they pick.

With that being said, I think we see a trade up for a QB.
 
I expect smith, pitts, waddle and chase to l be off the board before we pick!

same with all 5 qb’s and parsons.

therefore unless cb horn is available at 15, we need to trade down with the Titans and take either wr Moore of ole miss or wr toney of Florida!

Horn is perfect for our defense and would be a fantastic replacement for Gilmore starting in 2022, but if horn is off the board, a slot receiver that is also a total playmaker is a need and Moore and toney are two great ones that should be available in the 20’s.
 
REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.
Season 1 Facebook Watch GIF by Real World on Watch
 
I expect smith, pitts, waddle and chase to l be off the board before we pick!

same with all 5 qb’s and parsons.

therefore unless cb horn is available at 15, we need to trade down with the Titans and take either wr Moore of ole miss or wr toney of Florida!

Horn is perfect for our defense and would be a fantastic replacement for Gilmore starting in 2022, but if horn is off the board, a slot receiver that is also a total playmaker is a need and Moore and toney are two great ones that should be available in the 20’s.

Assuming that Slater is also gone in your trade down scenario, you are laying out pretty much the worst case scenario for the Pats, which is unlikely to happen.

History tells us that it is likely that there will be a surprise, or two, in the top half of round one. Few expected Ruggs to be WR1 last year over Jeudy and Lamb. Jeudy was thought to be good value at 15. and Lamb dropping to 17 was a major surprise.

AVT, Owusu-Koramoah, Barmore and even Newsome could go 11-14. In my opinion, the chances that Smith, Horn or one of the QBs is available at 15 is 50%, or better.

Peye would not be a reach at 15.

I personally am not interested in Toney in round 1.
 
Paye, Darrisaw, and Vera-Tucker are my sleepers to possibly, maybe get drafted higher than expected. For example, the Lions’ new head coach Dan Campbell is a meathead who wants players that will “bite kneecaps”. That tells me he will go away from finesse and want to draft an impact defensive guy. I could see the Lions, instead of trading down, just taking their guy at 7 and it could be Paye. Or we might see a run on tackles early with Sewell and Slater, and suddenly a team like the Chargers takes Darrisaw or Vera-Tucker at 13. Now that would open up a player at 15 that we didn’t expect to see available.

I think you can absolutely write off Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Pitts, Chase, Lance, or Sewell. But it’s anyone’s guess which defensive players and in which order will be gone before it gets to 15, and so I think all the top defensive players are in play, and there may be a puncher’s chance of one of the top four Alabama prospects (Smith, Waddle, Surtain, Jones) being there.
 
Assuming that Slater is also gone in your trade down scenario, you are laying out pretty much the worst case scenario for the Pats, which is unlikely to happen.

History tells us that it is likely that there will be a surprise, or two, in the top half of round one. Few expected Ruggs to be WR1 last year over Jeudy and Lamb. Jeudy was thought to be good value at 15. and Lamb dropping to 17 was a major surprise.

AVT, Owusu-Koramoah, Barmore and even Newsome could go 11-14. In my opinion, the chances that Smith, Horn or one of the QBs is available at 15 is 50%, or better.

Peye would not be a reach at 15.

I personally am not interested in Toney in round 1.

I hope you are right!

and maybe because of the virus and the lack of proper scouting some team(s) ahead of us goes off script.

I am sure bb is running a few different scenarios of how the first 14 picks could fall and hopefully he stays on script and delivers a quality draft. These last five-six years of drafts have not been anything to write home about!
 
Honestly, I’d much rather draft Smith over Waddle. Waddle is a one trick pony; even if that “one trick” is Hill-esque. If he suffers another/or major injury, then what? Smith can actually run crisp routes, has been relatively healthy & won the Heisman as a WR. If we’re looking for elite speed AND routes, take Rondale Moore (Purdue).

Rondale Moore is just too small for my taste at #46...#96 might be a different story...
 
REPEAT ONE HUNDRED TIMES
We are not drafting a WR is the first round.
===================
We are much more likely to draft one of the following: QB, OT, CB, TE, EDGE, or an ILB.

Unless his name is Kyle Pitts, we (and Everybody Else) are not drafting a TE in the first round...and he'll be gone before #8 anyway, so...
 
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If Smith is available at 15 not considering him as a pick will be a sin.Agree it is more probable we will take OT, DL or CB than WR but Smith is a very attractive pick.
 
Guys worthy of trading up from 15 in this draft:
Qb Lawrence
Qb Lance
Te Pitts
Ot Sewell
Ot Slater
Wr Chase
Wr Waddle

guys we should take if available at 15:
Everybody listed above.
Wr smith
Lb parsons
Cb surtain
Cb horn
Qb jones

if none of the 12 athletes listed above are available at 15, then trade down!
 
Guys worthy of trading up from 15 in this draft:
Qb Lawrence
Qb Lance
Te Pitts

Ot Slater
Wr Chase
Wr Waddle

guys we should take if available at 15:
Everybody listed above.
Wr smith
Lb parsons
Cb surtain
Cb horn
Qb jones

if none of the 12 athletes listed above are available at 15, then trade down!

I think your categories are right. I would only make small changes to the worthy picks at #15 list. Either add Fields or substitute him for Jones. Paye also makes my list for a good pick at 15. While the worth trading up for list is correct, only Lance is truly a target and probably only if both he and Fields are both still available after the first 4 picks (which assumes Jones really does go to SF at #3). Ideally, because bad teams (almost all of the 14 teams who pick before the Pats) might not want to take the risk of selecting a developmental QB like Lance, there is a chance that he makes it to #7 or or later which is the range where the Pats could be tempted to trade up for him. Only Denver could be competition to pick Lance at #9 (or trading up) if they have him in their sights.
 


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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