Donovan McPuke to get his jersey retired

[goheels22002]

I have been hearing many on television and radio in the last 24 hours make similar arguments, basing their point on McNabb's career stats and then comparing them to somebody who played before he did (e.g., another compared McNabb to Jim Kelly this morning).


To me the best way to judge a player's career is to look at how he did in comparison to his peers, those that played at the same time. To compare with players from a different era then look at how those players ranked against their contemporaries.

McNabb's yearly top ten rankings:
Passing Yards (2): 8th in 2004, 7th in 2008
Passing TD (4): 7th (2000), 7th (2001), 3rd (2004), 8th (2008)
Yards per Attempt (3): 4th ('04), 2nd ('06), 7th ('09)
Passer Rating (5): 7th ('01), 7th ('02), 4th ('04), 4th ('06), 9th ('07)

Elway's yearly top ten rankings:
Passing Yards (11): 2nd, 9th, 4th, 8th, 5th, 8th, 1st, 8th, 5th, 7th, 6th
Passing TD (8): 7th, 9th, 8th, 2nd, 6th, 4th, 4th, 9th
Yards per Attempt (9): 3rd, 10th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 7th, 4th
Passer Rating (5): 3rd, 4th, 4th, 7th, 5th

Kelly's yearly top ten rankings:
Passing Yards (6): 6th, 8th, 6th, 3rd, 3rd, 5th
Passing TD (9): 5th, 8th, 5th, 4th, 1st, 3rd, 6th, 6th, 10th
Yards per Attempt (8): 8th, 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, 5th
Passer Rating (7): 8th, 10th, 6th, 1st, 3rd, 10th, 7th

Was McNabb good? Yes, I would say so - but don't be swayed by the talking heads who compare him to players like Elway or Kelly. McNabb is a full notch or two below, more on par with players like Drew Bledsoe, Vinny Testaverde, Mark Brunell, Boomer Esiason, Ken Anderson, etc. The total career stats are very deceiving.

Looking at the data above, McNabb is comparable within his era to how Kelly and Elway were top five to ten QBs consistently in theirs. McNabb's elite QB era is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Curt Warner, Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger.

Looking at McNabb's rankings, there are awful lot of 2nd, 3rd and 4ths in there. Pretty solid company for the decade of the 2000s.

Warner is eligible in 2015, Favre and 2016, and McNabb in 2017. Warner and McNabb are 1st ballot locks. McNabb will be the top QB in his class on the ballot for the first time. I couldn't find any predictions for 2017 on line (maybe someone else has seen one.) I think he gets in based on the numbers, 4 trips to the NFC championship game and one trip to the Super Bowl.

The other elites of his era (Brady, Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger) won't be eligible until 2020 at the earliest, so they won't factor into the voting.

A factor in play is McNabb's increasing presence as an analyst on NFLN. The voters in 2017 will have seen a lot of McNabb, just as they've seen and heard the omnipresent Warren Sapp, a first-ballot inductee. As long as he doesn't pull some ridiculous stunt or make a racist comment, the NFLN exposure to the 50 voters will help.

 

[Pewsterbaby]

You could make a claim for Wilfork, and potentially some day Mayo too.

Not even close on either, and exactly what has Jerod Mayo done? What's he ranked as a featured middle linebacker anyway?
The Bears have not one, not two, but three mlb's who you can retire numbers on. Butkis, Singletary, & Urlacher.
There's some perspective for you.

Mayo? huh? what was that again? really? Jerod freaking Mayo?
Not even "potentially some day" like you specified. Hey, I could "potentially some day" become president too.

Mayo? Possible future jersey retirement? Yeah, because The Patriots defense is such a frigging juggernaut.

Dude, not one opposing player fears Jerod Mayo. Get a fricking clue. You thinking he'll possibly have his number retired is utterly delusional. My God.

 

[jmt57]

Looking at the data above, McNabb is comparable within his era to how Kelly and Elway were top five to ten QBs consistently in theirs.

Passing Yards
Elway: 1x led NFL, 1x 2nd, 5x top 5, 11x top 10
Kelly: 3x top 5, 6x top 10
McNabb: 0x top 5, 2x top 10

Passing TD
Kelly: 1x led NFL, 5x top 5, 9x top 10
Elway: 1x 2nd, 3x top 5, 8x top 10
McNabb: 1x top 5, 4x top 10

Yards per Attempt
Kelly: 1x 2nd, 5x top 5, 8x top 10
Elway: 2x top 5, 9x top 10
McNabb: 1x 2nd, 2x top 5, 3x top 10

Passer Rating
Kelly: 1x 1st, 2x top 5, 7x top 10
Elway: 4x top 5, 5x top 10
McNabb: 2x top 5, 5x top 10



There is a distinct difference in the comparison of Kelly and Elway to their contemporaries, and that of McNabb and his contemporaries.

I think perhaps you may be seeing a lot of rankings in the 5-10 range and thinking that translates to them being the 5th to 10th best in their era; that is not the case. Even the best QB of his generation is not going to finish in the top five in every category every season.



For a current player, McNabb is somewhat comparable to (but not quite as good as) Philip Rivers:

Philip Rivers
Passing Yards: 1x led NFL, 2x top 5, 5x top 10
Passing TD: 1x led NFL, 2x top 5, 6x top 10
Yards per Attempt: 3x led NFL, 3x top 5, 5x top 10
Passer Rating: 1x led NFL, 1x 2nd, 3x top 5, 4x top 5

Donovan McNabb
Passing Yards: 0x led NFL, 0x top 5, 2x top 10
Passing TD: 0x led NFL, 1x top 5, 4x top 10
Yards per Attempt: 1x 2nd, 2x top 5, 3x top 10
Passer Rating: 0x led NFL, 2x top 5, 5x top 10