Does the 2017 free agent class need to be reevaluated?

[stelfans]

Hard to argue with any of that. But just like Bill moved on with Chandler Jones, he will move on with some of those guys, whether we like it or not.

Collins has been a disappointment so far, i thought he would dominate a lot more than he has, and maybe thats on me and my expectations.

 

[Ivan]

That's the issue. They didn't get it done. 2/yr$10m for a DT who is good v run and can rush the passer is reasonable

Thought I heard that they wanted to do 3/12m and $5m guaranteed which is not bad but clearly less

I thought they had a phenomenal offseason, it will never be 100% but they started with under 5 million in cap space,got Long, Bennett, Hogan, who is looking like the steal of free agency, and have around 8 million left over to work with. They also had a great draft despite having their first stolen from them. They did as well as I could have hoped for.

 

[Ivan]

Hard to argue with any of that. But just like Bill moved on with Chandler Jones, he will move on with some of those guys, whether we like it or not.

Collins has been a disappointment so far, i thought he would dominate a lot more than he has, and maybe thats on me and my expectations.

I think Collins is hurting his value in NE but another team will grossly overpay for him. Hightower is the most important to sign with Bennett next, I would love to see Collins stay but the disparity between what he will want and what they will give him will most likely be too high. After that it's a long list but most love being here, and if Belichick can do as much as he did with 5million in cap space I can't wait to see what he does with 70 million.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I thought they made him a fair offer, they can't simply raise the bar each time another team ups the ante they have to set values and stay to them for the most part. There are exceptions but they are going to lose players when teams are willing to keep going higher.

Of course. They did that w DMC and they upped their offer. They chose not to kick in another million to Hicks. I thought that was short sighted. With what happened to Easley and with Branch's age the had an opportunity to lock in a young DT who they liked for mid-tier dollars

 

[RobertWeathers]

I thought they had a phenomenal offseason, it will never be 100% but they started with under 5 million in cap space,got Long, Bennett, Hogan, who is looking like the steal of free agency, and have around 8 million left over to work with. They also had a great draft despite having their first stolen from them. They did as well as I could have hoped for.

I thought they had a good offseason as well. Letting Hicks walk for a million bucks is my only gripe really.

 

[IllegalContact]

Collins is the best player on the defense

he is doing anything but hurting his value

3-4 teams are going to be backing up the truck for both him and hightower and this defense will be severely compromised if either moves on

this ain't moneyball.......the team needs these 2 guys more than any other impending free agents

the problem with hightower is that he has difficulty staying healthy for any extended period of time

 

[long distance]

I am getting more and more confident that Hightower stays here for a long time (health permitting).

He became a captain and moreover he clearly became QB of the D .. taking up the torch from Mayo.
That was again very visible in the last game with him leading the D huddle.

It was somewhat surprising that the deal was not done yet - Miguel projected it himself - but looking at these other factors on and off the field I am at peace.

Whatever one might think of Collins he is probably the only guy that can expect top money offer from elsewhere - so he will be the most difficult to keep. The Pats obviously realize this and they are looking ahead with signing guys like Mingo and McClellin - whatever we might think of them now - and also drafting Roberts that emerged as an intriguing versatile LB option.
_

The Butler, Ryan thing will take further evaluation. They loaded the CB position with young prospects this preseason and used highest draft pick yet nothing is really emerging at the moment. They traded quite highly for Rowe afterwards so let's hope that turns out better.

The value of both on this board might be much higher than on the market. A lot depends on competition of course - the quality of 2017 CB FAs and team needs (quite a few top corners are injured or ended season already this year) - but the fact is none of the two ever featured in top 10-20 CB ratings - which might be an indication that outside of the Pats fan base and possibly BB they are not viewed as top corners deserving top (Butler) or big (Ryan) contracts.

As BB said recently: there is no reason to be afraid of free agency. Its one of the fairest markets there is. If you overpay - you pay.

I think he might let Ryan and Collins test their market value like he did with McCourty.
He might sign Sheard and Long before that. With Butler he can take time.

The new priority might be Bennett - as part of unstoppable TE duo and an insurance for Gronk (or v.v.)

BTW - I was also disappointed to se Hicks go. Hope they can keep Branch now.

 

[IllegalContact]

Whatever one might think of Collins he is probably the only guy that can expect top money offer from elsewhere - so he will be the most difficult to keep. The Pats obviously realize this and they are looking ahead with signing guys like Mingo and McClellin - whatever we might think of them now - and also drafting Roberts that emerged as an intriguing versatile LB option.

I see someone is longing for the gary guyton/niko koutivedes days

 

[BobDigital]

Collins is the best player on the defense

he is doing anything but hurting his value

3-4 teams are going to be backing up the truck for both him and hightower and this defense will be severely compromised if either moves on

this ain't moneyball.......the team needs these 2 guys more than any other impending free agents

the problem with hightower is that he has difficulty staying healthy for any extended period of time

Here is the thing about Collins. He is not usually the best player on defense. He has the most talent and can do the most things but he certainly wasn't the best player on defense week 5 and IMO has been the best defensive player in 1 game this year out of 5. He was dominate in game 3 but besides that he had 2 pretty good games and 2 no shows.

People are going to offer him Luke Kuechly money but Kuechly is very consistent on defense and is clearly the best player on that unit the majority of the time.

While Collins can make huge plays on occasion which is great he often is just a big name on the field much of the time. So when someone comes in and offers him 12M a year will he be worth it? Over paying to keep a player is not a good idea in most cases. At this point i look at the player he is and can only think "this is what he will be". He is plenty good but he is not going to be the best or 2nd or 3rd best LB in the NFL cause i don't think he will ever be consistent enough.

I would put his worth at 9M a year. How much should they over pay to keep him? IDK.

 

[Flash]

I think the surprise player that Belichick leaves out would be Butler. PFF isn't the end-and-be-all but Butler is rated below Ryan this season despite Ryan having a horrendous game against Buffalo, and I agree, Butler has been pretty average this year. Given that Butler is going to look for big money this offseason I think it's more and more likely that Belichick lets him go in favor of Logan Ryan, who will be cheaper and can cover big receivers (as long as he has safety help). Not to mention the fact that a strong front seven can mask deficiencies in the secondary.

As far as front seven goes, I do not see either Hightower or Collins go. Hightower IMO is the best all-around LB after Kuechly, and regardless of him consistently missing a few games every season I would resign him no matter what. On the other hand, Collins is the playmaker. He isn't as consistent as Hightower is but he will make that flashy INT or sack. Both are instrumental in our defense and letting either go would be a mistake.

Malcom Brown will be our anchor in the D-line, and we have adequate DEs in Nink, Flowers, Long and Sheard. Ofc, the big question is how much does Sheard want in the offseason, but even without him I think we can move forward with Nink and Flowers as our main DEs. Maybe consider resigning Chris Long too.

 

[jimnance]

To take this idea one step further (or maybe a "leap" to some), if Belichick has any thoughts of trying to keep Garoppolo for an additional year or two where Brady may wrap up and pass the torch, that could certainly play into cap management just as well.

The idea sounds like a stretch, but franchise QBs don't fall out of the sky, particularly in our system, so if Belichick feels that it's in his best interests to overpay at the position of QB for a couple of years, it's something that could be worked out by keeping a few cap dollars in reserve.

Even if BB wanted to keep JG as the GOAT's successor and was willing to overpay to keep him-there is NO chance JG goes along with it. Think about it-Brady will likely play thru 2019-do you seriously think JG is going to be willing to sit for 3 MORE years after this one? When he will have multiple opportunities to start elsewhere? no freaking way. Thats 6 years of his career. Doesnt matter how great a franchise or coach is, he isnt hanging around for 3 more years. Either Jacoby or someone not currently in the NFL will be the next starting qb.

 

[slam]

I think the surprise player that Belichick leaves out would be Butler. PFF</stopped reading here>

 

[BTTA]

The answer to the OP question is "yes, of course, but it is still too early." On my radar:

• how they project Hightower's health going forward (have we already seen the best of him?)
• how well all of the CB's do this year, which will determine how important one of them (Butler) is
• Can they get something done with two of the three edge players who are up, before the end of the season? If so, the other one is probably an odd man out (and related to this, is how well do the youngsters do this year)

I'm sure others on the Board have other factors to watch. The point is, all of these are moving pieces. No matter how much we want to, none of the decisions about individuals will be made in isolation of the other moving pieces.

 

[IllegalContact]

Here is the thing about Collins. He is not usually the best player on defense. He has the most talent and can do the most things but he certainly wasn't the best player on defense week 5 and IMO has been the best defensive player in 1 game this year out of 5. He was dominate in game 3 but besides that he had 2 pretty good games and 2 no shows.

People are going to offer him Luke Kuechly money but Kuechly is very consistent on defense and is clearly the best player on that unit the majority of the time.

While Collins can make huge plays on occasion which is great he often is just a big name on the field much of the time. So when someone comes in and offers him 12M a year will he be worth it? Over paying to keep a player is not a good idea in most cases. At this point i look at the player he is and can only think "this is what he will be". He is plenty good but he is not going to be the best or 2nd or 3rd best LB in the NFL cause i don't think he will ever be consistent enough.

I would put his worth at 9M a year. How much should they over pay to keep him? IDK.

yes and no........if you consider INT's, forced fumbles, and sacks as big plays, Collins has made as many of them as Kuechly in one year less time

people love to make the argument that because he is here that he should take less money to remain here and then attempt to conjure up weaknesses to support the notion.....and then complain when the defense goes tits up.....they need to pay somebody.....Ryan? let him walk ..... Butler? he makes plays but he's not shutdown and should not get that money here.......I would wrap up Collins and Hightower...in fact I would have done it already.....backload the deals so you can walk away after 3-4 years

with this thinking, they should have been considered along the same lines as jones and they should have been traded last year so we can pile up more draft picks

the pats have 4 defensive players with a bigger cap hit than the kicker..........the expectation of a top defense under that premise is illogical

 

[PatsBoy12]

High's problem will continue to be that his extremely physical nature lends to injury and I agree that we may never see him play a full 16 again. That sucks, but it's not a reason to let him walk out the door. He's that kind of great. He's smart and always making crucial plays. The Lynch tackle alone is worth a new contract, and I'm only halfway kidding. You just deal with the injuries the best you can. He plays through them as much as possible, and that also should be considered.

Collins, other than the CLE game where I really did question if he was on the field, has never failed to show up on screen for me. He may not always be dominant, like in that HOU game three weeks ago, but that guy is special and that's simply all there is to it. The F.O. would be STUPID BEYOND BELIEF if they let him walk, unless his asking price is just that ridiculous.

Sheard is interesting. He has not shown that dominance that we hard about in TC and saw in the first two preseason games, but that could be because he's playing hobbled right now. Still he's been far better than Chandler Jones was and is constantly disruptive. He plays well in all of his assignments, though I think he does suffer a bit in space when he's asked to drop into zone coverage. He has missed three or four sacks just because the QB was somehow able to shake free. But it's not always about sacks. Where he ranks in terms of other DE's? I have no clue. But I think he's probably better than the other DE's we have in terms of pure pass rushing. Flowers is a threat, though. I think that guy will find his way onto the field more and more as the season progresses. He has made plays and been disruptive in almost every chance he's had to be on the field.

Blount is interesting to me as well because I feel the criticism he was getting was deserved prior to the first three to four weeks of the season. He's been amazing this season for sure. I love the type of ball he's playing right now. He seems faster, more explosive (not always though) and even more nimble. He's looking a bit like the Oregon days. Is he a long-term option, though? I'm not sure.

Bennett simply will come down to how much the team values him vs how much he values himself. Someone will pay big for him if he continues to look like he did on Sunday. He can catch and block. He's pretty good after the catch. He's big. He's smart. And NE revived the TE position years ago. Every team wants a dominant TE and Bennett can be that. I absolutely feel they will approach him with something fair if his play continues to be at this level, but it's up to him to take it. He has said numerous times already that this is the most fun he's had playing in the league. Maybe he'll consider that when deciding.

I think Long stays if he plays well enough. I don't think he's looking to break the bank. He just seems like he only wants to win now. Spending years with the Rams probably made him see that winning is what matters most. And his father loves BB and the Patriots. That kind of influence can go a long way.

Ryan is gone. He's still, to me, a solid #2 corner in this league. But he's going to want to get paid in his first shot at FA and I don't think NE places that kind of premium on him, especially when you consider Butler in a few years and the drafting of Cy Jones.

Harmon is likely gone. This makes me a bit sad. That guy may not always be in the right position, but his interceptions usually come when the other team is driving late in the game with a chance to tie or win it. He's done that numerous times, with the most crucial one coming in the 2014 divisional game when Flacco inexplicably went for it all with enough time to keep trying to drive down the field. Best QB in the league my @ss, Harbaugh (aka Crybaby).

Butler is restricted.

Branch may not get another deal if Valentine can continue to build momentum. I do like Branch, though.

These are just my humble thoughts.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Shoulda kept Ayers (edit:Akiem Hicks) That was the screw up of the offseason.

They tried. BB personally called him with an offer and the word was BB even briefly talked to him when he was cleaning out his locker right after the season. BB definitely wanted him. He chose to sign with the Bears.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Here is the thing about Collins. He is not usually the best player on defense. He has the most talent and can do the most things but he certainly wasn't the best player on defense week 5 and IMO has been the best defensive player in 1 game this year out of 5. He was dominate in game 3 but besides that he had 2 pretty good games and 2 no shows.

People are going to offer him Luke Kuechly money but Kuechly is very consistent on defense and is clearly the best player on that unit the majority of the time.

While Collins can make huge plays on occasion which is great he often is just a big name on the field much of the time. So when someone comes in and offers him 12M a year will he be worth it? Over paying to keep a player is not a good idea in most cases. At this point i look at the player he is and can only think "this is what he will be". He is plenty good but he is not going to be the best or 2nd or 3rd best LB in the NFL cause i don't think he will ever be consistent enough.

I would put his worth at 9M a year. How much should they over pay to keep him? IDK.

BobDigital, respect. But I just can't agree with you on this one. You're comparing a player who plays on a defense that plays one way every week (and is likely on *cough* performance juice) to someone who is asked to play a different role on a weekly basis and sometimes on a drive-by-drive basis. The only thing Kuechly does better than Collins is cover in the passing game and that, in part, is because he does more holding than any other LB I've seen and they just don't get called. And trust me, I'm not just referencing games against NE.

I don't know all the factors you're considering, but I know what I've seen and can tell you the stat sheet does not always tell the story with that guy. He's a menace. And he's durable . . . at least to this point. I do agree that he was a no show in CLE, but I don't know the other game you're talking about. If it's BUF, well, the whole team didn't show up for that game. It was putrid in all phases. The D looks completely different when he's not in the game, and the same can be said for High. You don't let guys like them leave without a fight. Simple as that. If you let Collins walk out the door because he's not "dominant" as you say, then who replaces a guy like that?

I do respect your opinion. I just can't see it your way, though.

 

[Deus Irae]

BobDigital, respect. But I just can't agree with you on this one. You're comparing a player who plays on a defense that plays one way every week (and is likely on *cough* performance juice) to someone who is asked to play a different role on a weekly basis and sometimes on a drive-by-drive basis. The only thing Kuechly does better than Collins is cover in the passing game and that, in part, is because he does more holding than any other LB I've seen and they just don't get called. And trust me, I'm not just referencing games against NE.

I don't know all the factors you're considering, but I know what I've seen and can tell you the stat sheet does not always tell the story with that guy. He's a menace. And he's durable . . . at least to this point. I do agree that he was a no show in CLE, but I don't know the other game you're talking about. If it's BUF, well, the whole team didn't show up for that game. It was putrid in all phases. The D looks completely different when he's not in the game, and the same can be said for High. You don't let guys like them leave without a fight. Simple as that. If you let Collins walk out the door because he's not "dominant" as you say, then who replaces a guy like that?

I do respect your opinion. I just can't see it your way, though.

Kuechly is the best in the NFL. Collins may not even be the best on his own team.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Kuechly is the best in the NFL. Collins may not even be the best on his own team.

Never said Kuechly wasn't good or the best. I'm simply stating that Carolina's defense is not nearly the complexity that is NE's and Collins is asked to do more things. Keuchly's range of responsibility, at least to a layman like me, doesn't appear to be as vast. And Collins is still growing. I don't think we're close to seeing his ceiling yet.

 

[Deus Irae]

Never said Kuechly wasn't good or the best. I'm simply stating that Carolina's defense is not nearly the complexity that is NE's and Collins is asked to do more things. Keuchly's range of responsibility, at least to a layman like me, doesn't appear to be as vast. And Collins is still growing. I don't think we're close to seeing his ceiling yet.

You said "The only thing Kuechly does better than Collins is cover in the passing game".