Do you realize we are looking at a minimum of a 12-4 team?

[zoostation]

anything can happen in this league. One game at a time. I will be happy with a victory Sunday and leave it at that.

 

[Disco Volante]

Patriots will be favored in Vegas to win 9 out of 10 of those games.

 

[aluminum seats]

I doubt anybody's 'gunning' for the Pats this season. They got knocked out in the 1st round last year and the media is still dissing the Pats for the most part. They will be considered underdogs vs the Steelers, Colts, and Jets. Fortunately the Pats are not in the Saints' shoes this year. The defending superbowl champs look to have their hands full and are kind of treading water right now (4-3).

This I agree with, and I think it's a reasonable view of the team (for once) by the media, etc., as the Pats are still in the process of growing and proving themselves.

Case in point, on Mike & Mike this morning (not saying they're experts, just reflective of conventional wisdom), they were talking about how the Colts might not be "the" team in the AFC this year, for once. (Not mentioning how that's really been the Pats' designation.) Then they said other teams might be this year: the Steelers...the Jets....the Ravens....maybe Tennessee....

No mention of the Pats at all. And that's good.

 

[Ron Sellers]

There is a big difference in being favored to win nine or ten games, and realistically expecting to go 9-1 or 10-0 in those ten games.

Look at it another way: a team has a 60% probability of winning each and every one of ten games. In that scenario they would be favored to win all ten games. Does that mean the expected result would be 10-0? No; the expectation should be 6-4 (0.6 x 10 = 6.0, or 6 wins.)

As we've already seen, the difference between a win and loss comes down to one or two plays. Pats could easily be 3-3, in third place behind 4-2 Miami. There's going to be a game the Pats don't get a bounce, a bad call goes the other way, as well as the inevitable clunker of a game that every NFL team experiences at some point in the season. And as others have mentioned, that is without considering the possibility of a critical injury or rookies regressing toward the end of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I think 12-4 is a very realistic possibility; in fact at this point it may even be the most likely result of the regular season for the Pats. I just wouldn't consider it to be a given, an automatic, like the way the title of the thread reads.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

This I agree with, and I think it's a reasonable view of the team (for once) by the media, etc., as the Pats are still in the process of growing and proving themselves.

Case in point, on Mike & Mike this morning (not saying they're experts, just reflective of conventional wisdom), they were talking about how the Colts might not be "the" team in the AFC this year, for once. (Not mentioning how that's really been the Pats' designation.) Then they said other teams might be this year: the Steelers...the Jets....the Ravens....maybe Tennessee....

No mention of the Pats at all. And that's good.

I am thrilled by this!

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

You do realize we are still giving up 300-400 yard games to opposing offenses and even to QBs who have 3 of thier 4 top receivers out of the lineup right?

The defensive problems have been covered up by the opposing teams special teams disasters in Miami and San Diego and not to forget Brain Farts by SD players didn't hurt either.

How many teams will continue to practically throw away games to the Patriots?
It can't last all season there are some pretty disciplined and well coached teams along the way..

Be happy with 10-6 and a #6 seed, anything more than that with this young defense is gravy

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The Pats are currently 5-1.
This is how the rest of their schedule looks:

Sunday, Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings 4:15 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Sunday, Nov. 7 @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Sunday, Nov. 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 p.m. ET WHDH NBC 
Sunday, Nov. 21 Indianapolis Colts 4:15 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Thursday, Nov. 25 @ Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Monday, Dec. 6 New York Jets 8:30 p.m. ET WCVB ESPN 
Sunday, Dec. 12 @ Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Sunday, Dec. 19 Green Bay Packers 8:20 p.m. ET * WHDH * NBC* 
Sunday, Dec. 26 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Sunday, Jan. 2 Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS*

Even if the Pats go 7-3 the rest of the way that adds up to a 12-4 tam.
Their only remaining tough games are @ Steelers, vs Colts, and vs Jets.
Those are the only games I really see us losing and I'm not willing to concede that the Pats will go 0-3 against those teams.
But even if they did, they would be at 12-4. If we're generous and give them 2 wins out of those 3 matchups, there's a distinct possibility of 14-2. Did you realize how good this team could be this year?

The Pats will probably drop at least one of the back to back games with the Bears and Packers - Those 2 teams will be tough to beat back to back.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

NO ONE here had us winning @ Miami, vs Ravens and @ San Diego....there will not be a tougher stretch of 3 games this year

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

EVERY game is a worry, imo. Especially after the Browns trounced the Saints and Oakland destroyed the Broncos. If that can happen, ANYTHING is possible.

Did you happen to realize that for the last 3 consecutive seasons the Browns have beaten the defending world champions of that previous year at thier house?

The Browns must have bulletin board material that says we must beat SB champions.

 

[Rob0729]

You do realize we are still giving up 300-400 yard games to opposing offenses and even to QBs who have 3 of thier 4 starting WRs out of the lineup right?

The defensive problems have been covered up by the opposing teams special teams disasters in Miami and San Diego a dnnot to forget Brain Farts by SD players didn't hurt either.

How many teams will continue to practically throw away games to the Patriots?
It can't last all season there are some pretty disciplined and well coached teams along the way..

Be happy with 10-6 and a #6 seed, anything more than that with this young defense is gravy

Yards are overrated if they don't get points to match.

First, Miami got 14 points and even without the special teams issues, the most they would have scored was 17 points.

Second, San Deigo's offense was stifled until the Pats went into a prevent defense fourth quarter after the Pats amassed a 17 point lead. The Chargers got 363 total yards with 224 of them in the fourth quarter. The only reason they had that many yards was because of special teams where they successfully recovered an onside kick that gave them back to back scoring drives. If you are going to discredit the defense because of positive special team plays, you have to give them credit for when the special teams fail and gives the opponent two offensive drives in a row.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats will probably drop at least one of the back to back games with the Bears and Packers - Those 2 teams will be tough to beat back to back.

I don't know about that. The Bears are a bad team. The Chicago crowd will probably be louder when Jay Cutler is on the field than when Brady is since their offense is putrid. The Packers will depend on how healthy they are.

 

[stcjones]

You are putting the cart way out ahead of the horse here. It's ridiculous to guesstimate how this whole thing will play out at this juncture. There are no given games on any schedule.

The Pats are currently 5-1.
This is how the rest of their schedule looks:

Sunday, Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings 4:15 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Sunday, Nov. 7 @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Sunday, Nov. 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 p.m. ET WHDH NBC 
Sunday, Nov. 21 Indianapolis Colts 4:15 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Thursday, Nov. 25 @ Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS 
Monday, Dec. 6 New York Jets 8:30 p.m. ET WCVB ESPN 
Sunday, Dec. 12 @ Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Sunday, Dec. 19 Green Bay Packers 8:20 p.m. ET * WHDH * NBC* 
Sunday, Dec. 26 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* 
Sunday, Jan. 2 MiamiT * WBZ-TV * CBS*

Even if the Pats go 7-3 the rest of the way that adds up to a 12-4 tam.
Their only remaining tough games are @ Steelers, vs Colts, and vs Jets.
Those are the only games I really see us losing and I'm not willing to concede that the Pats will go 0-3 against those teams.
But even if they did, they would be at 12-4. If we're generous and give them 2 wins out of those 3 matchups, there's a distinct possibility of 14-2. Did you realize how good this team could be this year?

 

[shmessy]

You should take it one game at a time just like the Pats.

Why? Is he on the roster?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Pats will probably drop at least one of the back to back games with the Bears and Packers - Those 2 teams will be tough to beat back to back.

We have 10 games remaining. 5 of those remaining games are against teams with winning records. 3 of those 5 are home games. The other two are the Steelers and the Bears. Their beat guy twitted this this AM and it caught my eye:

BradBiggs Seven games to draw these stats from isn't best sample size, folks, but it is nearly half the season.
about 1 hour ago via web
BradBiggs #Bears are 32nd in sacks, 32nd in INT, 32nd in 3rd down, 29th rushing, 27th time of poss., 26th scoring, 24th competion pct., 30th yards.
about 1 hour ago via web

It's more likely they drop one of two against the Steelers and Colts back to back, but I don't necessarily expect that to be the case. The most important games remaining on the schedule are the JETS and Steelers because of thier identical records. They each won their last game by a hair against lesser teams they should have handled easily. Go figure.

 

[stcjones]

You do realize we are still giving up 300-400 yard games to opposing offenses and even to QBs who have 3 of thier 4 top receivers out of the lineup right?

The defensive problems have been covered up by the opposing teams special teams disasters in Miami and San Diego and not to forget Brain Farts by SD players didn't hurt either.

How many teams will continue to practically throw away games to the Patriots?
It can't last all season there are some pretty disciplined and well coached teams along the way..

Be happy with 10-6 and a #6 seed, anything more than that with this young defense is gravy

Realism.....I love realism!! Good post.....one game at a time though.....

 

[shmessy]

Methinks you're jumping the gun big time, here. Back in 1999 the Pats were 6-2 going into their bye week and all was well. People were forecasting 12-4, 14-2...remember what happened? Pats went 2-6 the rest of the way. Teams figured out that in order to beat the Pats you just needed to bring lots of pressure right up the gut and Bledsoe would not be able to handle it.

Yeah, your example really is spot on because Pete Carroll and Drew Bledsoe could really mess up our season again.

You never know. Bobby Grier might also screw up our draft next April.

Good point, man.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

I offered to host. I got the bigger house, my Thanksgiving spread is better too (I cheat and found an awesome turkey farm that does the complete spread for reasonable price right by my house and they make the best turkey and stuffing). The deck was still stacked against me. It is their kid's first Thanksgiving and the in-laws are coming in from across country to see their grandkid. You can't compete with that. Believe me. The concensus of the entire family wanted it at my house, but the baby's first Thanksgiving trumps everything.

The baby isn't going to remember it!!

As for 12-4. Crazy talk.
We're going 18-1!

 

[shmessy]

One thing I noticed looking at that schedule is that by playing the lions on thanksgiving, we get an extra 3 days to rest and prep for the Jets. Hadn't realized that before now.

So do the Jets.

Thanksgiving AT HOME against Cinncinati.

 

[QB12]

....
Be happy with 10-6 and a #6 seed, anything more than that with this young defense is gravy

You're so pessimistic you make H.L. Mencken an eternal optimist.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

You're so pessimistic you make H.L. Mencken an eternal optimist.

Keeping hopes up high as in 13-3 guesses for season records is fine for those who do,but for me I would rather use 10-6 as an expected record and be happily surprised if they do better than that.

Its always better to think low and potentially get high results and be happy, rather than to think high and get lower results and be dissapointed.