Divisional playoff game thread: Colts @ Chiefs

[Kontradiction]

The Colts “incredible turnaround” appears to be more about their schedule. They had an impressive home win over the Cowboys during their run, but other than that it’s mostly beating up on the AFC South and NFC East, in my opinion the two worst divisons in the league. I think this was also the reason Houston went on a similar run near the end of the season and were also hugely overhyped.

I’m changing my outlook and going with Chiefs by a comfortable margin. I’ll be surprised if any AFC South or NFC East team makes it to a conference championship. If the Colts win at Arrowhead I’ll acknowledge they are legit, but I’m starting to look closer and seeing some smoke and mirrors here. It’s not they they didn’t improve this season, but to what extent I have some skepticism.

???

Those two divisions fielded two playoff teams each and one of them still has two teams in the dance. By which measure are they the two weakest divisions in the NFL?

 

[PP2]

The reason the Colts are tough is because KC can’t stop the run and Luck is a gritty, smart veteran

Mahomes is amazing but it’s still his first playoff start. But if he manages to play like he has all year KC should win. The Colts haven’t played an offense on KC’s level all season. But no one has even come close to handling KC, especially not at Arrowhead. They’re the 1 seed for a reason and have the MVP on their sidelines

Both divisionals seem like toss ups. Chiefs-Colts and Patriots-Chargers

Mahomes style of playing might be electric as far as regular season play, but as history has shown, that style never really succeeds in the playoffs.

My money is on the Colts.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Mahomes style of playing might be electric as far as regular season play, but as history has shown, that style never really succeeds in the playoffs.

My money is on the Colts.

He's similar to Rogers/Wilson. They have had post season success. I wouldn't count him out entirely. That said, I do get the feeling that we'll see an upset. Chiefs defense is simply too suspect.

 

[Kontradiction]

He's similar to Rogers/Wilson. They have had post season success. I wouldn't count him out entirely. That said, I do get the feeling that we'll see an upset. Chiefs defense is simply too suspect.

The Chiefs live and die by what their DL is able to do because their secondary is... pretty rough. I honestly don't see that DL laying a finger on Luck. I think he torches their secondary and Mack runs at will on them. On the other side of the ball, I see Indy getting more stops than KC is able to. I'll go with Indy as well.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is the same logic people have used against us because we play in the afc east and we have been to 8 Super Bowls.

No, it isn’t. If the Colts beat good teams in the playoffs, then my take is wrong (see my post.). Just like if the Patriots were going one-and-done every year, the argument that they just played a weak division would have some teeth.

 

[Brandon Manning]

No, it isn’t. If the Colts beat good teams in the playoffs, then my take is wrong (see my post.). Just like if the Patriots were going one-and-done every year, the argument that they just played a weak division would have some teeth.

Agreed. And haven't the Patriots statistically done just as good (If not better) outside the division? It's not like we go 6-0 every season. The last time we swept the AFC East was 2012.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

???

Those two divisions fielded two playoff teams each and one of them still has two teams in the dance. By which measure are they the two weakest divisions in the NFL?

I am just looking at their schedule and failing to find any significant challenges, particularly on the road (besides last week, though they've historically owned the Texans with Luck), since they lost to the Patriots and Eagles early in the season. I see their turnaround as more due to the schedule being front-loaded with the tougher games early on.

The Chiefs played the Patriots (road), Chargers (twice), Seahawks (road), Rams (road), Ravens, and Steelers (road). Of all those games, there wasn't a single time where they looked overmatched and played wire-to-wire competitive football in every game.

As for the Colts, I'm not sold they can go on the road and even be competitive. I see a bunch of very crappy opponents and not exactly a ringing endorsement that this is a top NFL team. They may be the real deal; it's just that the actual evidence is much less sound than I would have thought. It can be explained in an opponent strength context just as well as a chronological improvement context.

As for those two divisions, yes, they did produce two playoff teams. Both the Cowboys and Eagles were roughly even in point differential on the season, suggesting their record is much better than their actual team quality. The AFC South is not as bad as they've been for much of the last decade, but I'm not going to give much credit to Indy for cleaning up on those clown teams that they always beat, until they actually beat some quality teams outside the division. That's been their story for many years.

 

[PatsDeb]

I wish the poll said, "Who do you want to win?" I want Indy to win, but I think KC will...

 

[TinhWoodhead]

The Chiefs live and die by what their DL is able to do because their secondary is... pretty rough. I honestly don't see that DL laying a finger on Luck. I think he torches their secondary and Mack runs at will on them. On the other side of the ball, I see Indy getting more stops than KC is able to. I'll go with Indy as well.

Colts can stay hot one more game

 

[Triumph]

The Colts secret weapon is Andy Reid.

He will challenge a stupid play and lose a timeout. He will botch clock management as well. Reid called his timeouts way too early in the NE game. He will have his head buried in his Dennys menu while the game is going down the crapper.

The only saving grace is if Mahomes ignores Reid and does what he wants.

 

[PP2]

He's similar to Rogers/Wilson. They have had post season success. I wouldn't count him out entirely. That said, I do get the feeling that we'll see an upset. Chiefs defense is simply too suspect.

Yes, two quarterbacks out of how many have reached the superbowl in the last, let's say, 20 years?

 

[Kontradiction]

I am just looking at their schedule and failing to find any significant challenges, particularly on the road (besides last week, though they've historically owned the Texans with Luck), since they lost to the Patriots and Eagles early in the season. I see their turnaround as more due to the schedule being front-loaded with the tougher games early on.

The Chiefs played the Patriots (road), Chargers (twice), Seahawks (road), Rams (road), Ravens, and Steelers (road). Of all those games, there wasn't a single time where they looked overmatched and played wire-to-wire competitive football in every game.

As for the Colts, I'm not sold they can go on the road and even be competitive. I see a bunch of very crappy opponents and not exactly a ringing endorsement that this is a top NFL team. They may be the real deal; it's just that the actual evidence is much less sound than I would have thought. It can be explained in an opponent strength context just as well as a chronological improvement context.

As for those two divisions, yes, they did produce two playoff teams. Both the Cowboys and Eagles were roughly even in point differential on the season, suggesting their record is much better than their actual team quality. The AFC South is not as bad as they've been for much of the last decade, but I'm not going to give much credit to Indy for cleaning up on those clown teams that they always beat, until they actually beat some quality teams outside the division. That's been their story for many years.

None of this disproves the contention that those two divisions were not the worst in the NFL. Any division that's putting out two playoff teams each cannot be the worst. As a matter of fact, the AFC East this year has much more of a claim to being the weakest in football over either of those two. The NFC East has two teams left in the top four in that conference. The NFC South, on the other hand, was a dumpster fire this year outside of New Orleans.

 

[Redstorm]

Yes, two quarterbacks out of how many have reached the superbowl in the last, let's say, 20 years?

Those are just nice comparisons

Even Wilson and Rodgers weren’t this advanced at age 23

 

[Dorito Dink]

I've said the Chiefs have the makings of a one and done for quite some time. They just seem like the old-school Colts with a high-flying offense, weak defense, and suspect coach that will get exposed in the postseason. I think the new-school Colts are the perfect team to go in and beat them.

Marlon Mack has gotten better as the year has progressed and looked like a force last week. Making the defense account for a run game when you have a QB like Luck along with the fast weapons he has is a nightmare for that KC defense. Unless Ford, Jones and Houston can have some success against that stout Colts OL, I think the Colts try to control the clock and win a 27-24 type game.

 

[Dorito Dink]

The Chiefs live and die by what their DL is able to do because their secondary is... pretty rough. I honestly don't see that DL laying a finger on Luck. I think he torches their secondary and Mack runs at will on them. On the other side of the ball, I see Indy getting more stops than KC is able to. I'll go with Indy as well.

Kontra, what's your prediction for the Pats from here on out? I'm genuinely curious to see if you have changed your tune at all from a few weeks back on the Pats having zero shot/season being over. Do you think the Pats get by the Chargers this week? If so, sounds like you think the Colts come to Foxboro next week. I'd have to assume you'd like their chances at home in an AFCCG?

It's definitely going to be a tough road (have to handle LAC first), but if the above happens, you gotta like the Pats chances for a shot in Atlanta.

 

[qbno12]

I can't see all 4 top seeds winning based solely on probability and I don't honestly think either NFC team is in real danger of losing. So I am forced to predict an upset in the AFC.

That both excites and worries me. I hope the right upset happens.

But "right upset", I think you mean Colts. Please make it clear for us faint hearted

 

[Angelpats]

No, it isn’t. If the Colts beat good teams in the playoffs, then my take is wrong (see my post.). Just like if the Patriots were going one-and-done every year, the argument that they just played a weak division would have some teeth.

I wasn’t really disagreeing with you I was just letting you know your views on the colts mirrors what most people say about us and our division. They are only allowed to play whoever is on their schedule, and beating a playoff team last week is an accomplishment. It’s hard to win games in this league.

 

[Kontradiction]

Kontra, what's your prediction for the Pats from here on out? I'm genuinely curious to see if you have changed your tune at all from a few weeks back on the Pats having zero shot/season being over. Do you think the Pats get by the Chargers this week? If so, sounds like you think the Colts come to Foxboro next week. I'd have to assume you'd like their chances at home in an AFCCG?

It's definitely going to be a tough road (have to handle LAC first), but if the above happens, you gotta like the Pats chances for a shot in Atlanta.

I've said I think we get by the Chargers. I think it will be a tough defensive game. I think we either make our exit in the AFCCG or go down in the Super Bowl. The Colts we see now are not the same team from earlier in the season, unfortunately. That OL is playing some very dominant football. So a home contest with them, IMO, would be tougher than it was. But no, I haven't moved off of my belief that I don't think this team is complete enough to win a Super Bowl. Hopefully I'm wrong. Put it this way - if this team does somehow manage to prove me wrong, is there any doubt that this edition would be the weakest edition out of all of the previous Super Bowl winners for this team?

 

[Observer]

Colts beating the chiefs will definitely be a big upset but I hope they pull it off.

 

[Dorito Dink]

I've said I think we get by the Chargers. I think it will be a tough defensive game. I think we either make our exit in the AFCCG or go down in the Super Bowl. The Colts we see now are not the same team from earlier in the season, unfortunately. That OL is playing some very dominant football. So a home contest with them, IMO, would be tougher than it was. But no, I haven't moved off of my belief that I don't think this team is complete enough to win a Super Bowl. Hopefully I'm wrong. Put it this way - if this team does somehow manage to prove me wrong, is there any doubt that this edition would be the weakest edition out of all of the previous Super Bowl winners for this team?

All fair points. Nope, it'd definitely be the weakest edition. My contention all along has been that there aren't really any clear favorites this year so we have just as good of a shot as anybody. Chiefs/Rams were dominant early sure, but they've all showed some very fatal weaknesses. I think the Saints are the most complete team out there right now and they even have issues.

Although the Colts are playing great, I like our odds against them in Foxborough. BB has Luck's number and think we'd pick him off at least twice. The Saints are the team i think gives us the worst matchup so i'm praying (although i feel dirty) for a Philly upset.