You're correct in that mathematically speaking, the Patriots have to win out to guarantee HFA. You're also correct saying that that holds true even with a single Pittsburgh loss anywhere between here and the NE-Pit game.
However, realistically speaking, both KC and Pittsburgh have some losses coming their way. I don't think the Patriots have to win out to get the #1 seed.
Yeah. Possibly.
At this time of the season, I typically start looking at the standings like match play scores in golf, and I don't really begin to relax until the Pats have a 3-game lead with 2 games left.
I think we'll learn a lot about how legit the Steelers are over the next couple games, starting tomorrow night with them hosting the Titans on a short week, followed up by the Steelers hosting the Packers a week from Sunday, again in primetime. I'm not as sure as others seems to be that the Packers are all that bad with Hundley, but BAL @GBY this Sunday will tell us a lot about both teams.
After that, the Steelers have two more primetime games, @CIN and home v. BAL, before the Pats play them in Pittsburgh. I suspect that the Steelers will lose at least one of those four games, and possibly two, but they may be better (or luckier, at least) than they appear to be to me.
Meanwhile, KC appears to have the easier schedule: @NYG on Sunday, hosting BUF, and @NYJ in wk-13, followed by a 3-game home stand versus the Raiders, the Chargers and the 'Fins before finishing up @DEN. I could see them winning out.
Although both TEN and JAX are virtually tied with KC at one game back, unless one or the other of them are significantly better than they appear to me, I don't see either of them still being in the conversation for the #1/#2 seed in wk-17. Both have "interesting" and nearly identical schedules, but JAX appears to have the slightly easier one:
- Both play their second games against IND and HOU (both are home games for JAX; TEN plays @IND).
- Both still have three games v. NFC West teams. Both play @ARZ and @SFO (perhaps against JG at that point). JAX hosts SEA in wk-14; TEN hosts the Rams in wk-17. Then, they face off against each other in Tennessee in the final game.
However, TEN play @PIT tomorrow night, while JAX plays @CLE on Sunday.
I'm fairly confident that the Bills are pretenders and are more likely than not to be virtually out of the WC conversation by the end of wk-14 or 15. They play
@Chargers and
@KC the next two weeks before hosting the Pats, the Colts and the 'Fins.
I have a feeling that either the Ravens or the Raiders end up in the #6 spot, with a slight edge to the Ravens based on their schedule, though the 'Fins could still get there (if Cutler finds a better coke supplier).
