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Defense Doesn't Always Win Championships

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SB39

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It never ceases to amaze me how people can't see more than 2 feet in front of their own faces. Yes, this past Sunday, defense won the Super Bowl Championship for Seattle. But I am not ready to completely and radically change the formula for success the Patriots have followed.

Fact is that in 6 of the 7 past years, the better defense on Super Sunday lost the game - and there's an awful lot of mediocre defenses in there.

Let's look at the previous years:

2012: The Ravens were 12th in the league and San Francisco was 2nd so defense sure didn't win any championships last year.

2011: The sad sack Giants were 25th. It still sickens me.

2010: The #1 defense in the league, the Steelers, went to the Super Bowl - and lost giving up 31 points.

2009: The Saints were a very mediocre 20th and beat #8

2008: Pittsburgh was the top defense and they won it all. Huzzah.

2007: Giants were #17 and NE was #4. It still sickens me.

2006: Indy was an abysmal #23 against the #3 Chicago Bears
 
Im sorry but I just found this to be the most obvious statement "defence doesn't always win championships." Well No $H!T!!!!
 
In season rankings do not represent defenses that get hot in the post-season.
 
#1 scoring offenses definitely don't win championships. Maybe once in a decade at best. The best defense trumps the best offense anyday
 
It looked to me like a complete football team won a championship Sunday night. Their defense was dominant. Their special teams were dominant. Their offense was as well.
 
#1 scoring offenses definitely don't win championships. Maybe once in a decade at best. The best defense trumps the best offense anyday

The #1 scoring offense in the league is 8-8 in Super Bowls in NFL history. The best team wins the Super Bowl, but you have to have a defense that can force more 3 and outs than they don't. That's an absolute requirement.
 
The #1 scoring offense in the league is 8-8 in Super Bowls in NFL history. The best team wins the Super Bowl, but you have to have a defense that can force more 3 and outs than they don't. That's an absolute requirement.

I think that's the most crucial part, especially when you have a QB like Brady. You need a defense that will get him the ball back when he isn't hitting his rhythm early. That's why you can't appreciate how much our defense dropped the ball, for example SB46 and this year's AFCC, just because the PA wasn't awful. Zero turnovers forced and Brady watching on the sidelines.

Balance wins more than defense wins, but your defense needs to at the very least be able to get off the field and not give up 70% of your 3rd downs. ESPECIALLY when some of those are 3rd and 10+
 
Any team that forces 4 turnovers in any game, while giving up none will usually win...

Remember, Cold Hard Football Facts?, a stat that is stuck in my brain, that if a team commits a turnover the chances of winning increase by 27%...

These numbers only go up to 2010, but show that if you throw 2 int's then your chance of winning is 31%

The almighty CHFF interception ladder

Here's the CHFF Interception Ladder, a look at the record of teams in the playoffs (since 1970) based upon the number of interceptions that they throw (through the 2009 divisional playoffs):
0 INT – 191-51 (.789)
1 INT – 144-119 (.548)
2 INT – 54-119 (.312)
3 INT – 17-78 (.179)
4+ INT – 1-41 (.024)
 
It never ceases to amaze me how people can't see more than 2 feet in front of their own faces. Yes, this past Sunday, defense won the Super Bowl Championship for Seattle. But I am not ready to completely and radically change the formula for success the Patriots have followed.

Fact is that in 6 of the 7 past years, the better defense on Super Sunday lost the game - and there's an awful lot of mediocre defenses in there.

Let's look at the previous years:

2012: The Ravens were 12th in the league and San Francisco was 2nd so defense sure didn't win any championships last year.

2011: The sad sack Giants were 25th. It still sickens me.

2010: The #1 defense in the league, the Steelers, went to the Super Bowl - and lost giving up 31 points.

2009: The Saints were a very mediocre 20th and beat #8

2008: Pittsburgh was the top defense and they won it all. Huzzah.

2007: Giants were #17 and NE was #4. It still sickens me.

2006: Indy was an abysmal #23 against the #3 Chicago Bears

These are misleading because several of these defenses were average to horrible, but got hot and stout in the playoffs. Let's look at some of these:

2011: The Giants might not have had a great defense in the regular season, but their defense was stellar in the playoffs. They held the two of three best offenses in the league that year to 20 (Packers) and 17 (Pats) respectively where both teams averaged over 32 PPG. They held the Falcons (7th in points that year) to 2 points. They held the 49ers in the NFCCG to 17 points. They won in the playoffs on defense.

2009: The Saints gave up 14, 28, and 17 points in their three playoff games. And they were 7th in points allowed that year.

2007: The Giants gave up 14, 17, 20, and 14 points respectively in the playoffs. They held the best offense in NFL history at that point to 14 points.

2006: The Colts held opponents in the playoffs to 8, 6, 31, and 17 points in the playoffs. The Pats did get 34 points, but the Colts dominated the second half after getting in a deep hole.

Defense means a lot more to championships than you state. I am not advocating that the Pats need to give up on offense and just focus on defense. I believe the Pats need to be more balanced and can't rely on Brady and the offense to win the Super Bowl.
 
One question is how you rate defenses. Yards allowed, points allowed, take aways, some combination of both???

The media usually looks at yards allowed, which always seems dumb to me. I like points allowed better, but that is just me.
 
It never ceases to amaze me how people can't see more than 2 feet in front of their own faces. Yes, this past Sunday, defense won the Super Bowl Championship for Seattle. But I am not ready to completely and radically change the formula for success the Patriots have followed.

Defense is why the likes of Rypien, Dilfer, Johnson, Hostetler can win Super Bowl rings. Defense is why Rex Grossman can get to the game. Lack of defense is why a guy like Peyton Manning only has one ring, and his one ring came when the Colts defense started playing much better when Bob Sanders got healthy. Lack of defense is why Aaron Rodgers only has one ring and one SB appearance. Lack of defense is why Brady hasn't won a ring in 9 years.

I'm sure there have been an exception here and there over the years but as a rule, if you have a choice between a strong defense and a game managing offense vs a strong offense and a defense that can't stop anyone, your best bet is to go with the strong defense.

I mean just look at our team. 3 titles focused on a strong, intimidating and playmaking defense. ZERO titles focused on Brady and the offense. Nuff said. It's right there in black and white.


2011: The sad sack Giants were 25th. It still sickens me.

They were a helluva lot better than the Patriots defense. Don't even think of telling me the Patriots defense was good that year.

2010: The #1 defense in the league, the Steelers, went to the Super Bowl - and lost giving up 31 points.

It's worth noting that the Steelers pass defense statistically wasn't all that. And counting the Super Bowl they played just 3 top 10 passing teams all season and lost to all of them.

2009: The Saints were a very mediocre 20th and beat #8
That defense still made plays to stop Manning. Look at how easily they stopped Brady.

2007: Giants were #17 and NE was #4. It still sickens me.
That #4 ranking was a mirage. Hard to measure how good a D really is when the offense gets big leads every week and the other team becomes one dimensional trying to catch up.

It was that pass rush that shut down Brady. Defense won that championship.

2006: Indy was an abysmal #23 against the #3 Chicago Bears

That's because Bob Sanders got healthy. The difference with him in there was like night and day.


The Air Brady show needs to be put to bed for good because the Pats haven't - and never will IMO - win a championship with that approach. Gimme a strong defense over a big offense anyday. That is what wins championships. Actually gimme a team strong on both sides but given the choice, gimme defense. I hope the Pats do whatever it takes to get their D where it needs to be.
 
In season rankings do not represent defenses that get hot in the post-season.

It doesn't represent offenses that get hot in the postseason, or offenses/defenses that get cold in the postseason, either. It's an incomplete picture, but the point still remains.

People are overdoing the "defense wins championships" thing because we just saw a defense shut down its opponent.

When Baltimore beat SF 34-31 last year, it wasn't defense winning that championship.
 
Lack of defense is why Brady hasn't won a ring in 9 years.

The Air Brady show needs to be put to bed for good because the Pats haven't - and never will IMO - win a championship with that approach. Gimme a strong defense over a big offense anyday. That is what wins championships. I hope the Pats do whatever it takes to get their D where it needs to be.

The Pats D gave up 21 and 17 points in recent SB losses. The Pats D gave up 17, 29 and 21 points in SB wins.

The Pats O put up 17 and 14 in losses. The Pats O put up 20, 32 and 24 in wins.

So the defensive teams gave up the same or more points than the offensive teams and won, while the offensive teams gave up the same or fewer points and lost.

Strange, that seems to say more is needed on offense, not defense. But hey, keep telling yourself that there is a definite reason why 3 point swings in 5 title games should always favor the Pats, because good teams always win the title. Those awesome D's giving up 3 or more TDs in the biggest game of the year are just what the doctor ordered.
 
The Pats D gave up 21 and 17 points in recent SB losses. The Pats D gave up 17, 29 and 21 points in SB wins.

The Pats O put up 17 and 14 in losses. The Pats O put up 20, 32 and 24 in wins.

When it came down to it, the defense didn't make the stop at the big moment that they needed to make. Both times. I have no doubt the 01,03 and 04 D's would have. Both times.

Same with the Ravens AFC Championship game. The D failed in that one too as the Ravens were marching down the field for the game tying or winning score. They were just lucky Evans dropped the game winning TD pass and Cundiff shanked the FG.

The Patriots with a strong D: 3 titles. With Brady as the focus: 0 titles. Fact. Indisputable.

So yes, let's load up again on offense and leave the D as an afterthought like it's been the last several years. Why on earth should I think the end result will be any different?

The Pats haters will of course be happy to chirp about spygate when the real reason for the lack of titles is right there in black and white.

Great offenses have been shut down by defenses in the playoffs again and again and again and again and again and again. Why insist on sticking with a losing strategy when there's proof of a more successful one? It makes no sense.

I know a lot of people around here want Brady to get his stats. I'd rather have titles with a game manager QB than none with an all world QB. Titles will do a lot more for Brady's legacy than stats.
 
When it came down to it, the defense didn't make the stop at the big moment that they needed to make. Both times. I have no doubt the 01,03 and 04 D's would have. Both times.

Same with the Ravens AFC Championship game. The D failed in that one too as the Ravens were marching down the field for the game tying or winning score. They were just lucky Evans dropped the game winning TD pass and Cundiff shanked the FG.

The Patriots with a strong D: 3 titles. With Brady as the focus: 0 titles. Fact. Indisputable.

So yes, let's load up again on offense and leave the D as an afterthought like it's been the last several years. Why on earth should I think the end result will be any different?

The Pats haters will of course be happy to chirp about spygate when the real reason for the lack of titles is right there in black and white.

Great offenses have been shut down by defenses in the playoffs again and again and again and again and again and again. Why insist on sticking with a losing strategy when there's proof of a more successful one? It makes no sense.

I know a lot of people around here want Brady to get his stats. I'd rather have titles with a game manager QB than none with an all world QB. Titles will do a lot more for Brady's legacy than stats.

So Welker's drop and Samuel's missed interception represent the failing of the offense? It's "air Brady" that caused the problem?

People have tunnel vision on this subject after the last game. Making the last stop is no more or less a cause of those losses than was making the last catch and putting the game away. If the defenses played better earlier, then there is no need to make the last stop. The same is true of the offense - play better and the defense is a non-issue. Dillon in 2004 showed an offense can stop another offense by keeping it off the field.

Lousy defenses often prevent playoffs. Supernatural defenses can offset lousy offenses, to some extent. There are 3 phases to football. Balance wins championships, as a general rule. Neglect one too much, and you lose. But this game is played within evolving rules, and the vaunted 2003 defense played within a different, more tolerant, rule set. If you believe that defense would enjoy the same degree of success today, guess again.

1996 showed special teams can win titles. 1985 and 2000 showed a great enough defense can win titles. 2001 showed great coaching can win titles.

I am not saying dedicate more to the offense. My point was responding to your theory that defense was a cause of the losses when the more logical argument is the offense, not the defense, came up short in the losses. The Pats have been putting resources to the D, in the secondary, on the line and in the linebackers very recently (Wilson, Kelly, Talib and multiple draft picks last year). We will never know what this might have done if it could remain healthy all year. The same is true of the offense. Misses on draft picks are not about "Air Brady" or the need to scuttle the offense to make this team a title winner. The best teams compete for titles every year, and only one wins. The fact the Pats came up short in the last two opportunities does not mean the team strategy is wrong somehow. This team, as a whole, competes every year, and in the salary cap era that is astounding. No team is gifted the playoffs, and some of our resdent doubters labeled this an 8-8 or 9-7 team in the preseason.

If the heavyweight champion and number 1 contender square off in the ring, one is going to win. If the champion loses, then he doesn't scrap his training and shift to MMA because he lost. Everyone wants the easy out here - get a better defense, and we will win more titles just like the Hawks. The Hawks were a catch away from losing at home and not playing the final game of the year. Let's not deify the Hawks model, and make it the model of success now and forever. They won the game. Rosters are built with 53 players, and winning titles often comes down to a substantial percentage of the best players on the roster moving in the same direction at the end of the season.
 
Pass Rush wins championships!
 
It's about making plays when it counts. I'd like the Patriots defense to be able to do that next year.
 
One question is how you rate defenses. Yards allowed, points allowed, take aways, some combination of both???

The media usually looks at yards allowed, which always seems dumb to me. I like points allowed better, but that is just me.
I used total points allowed. The official rankings are based on yardage allowed, but I prefer to use points.
 
It doesn't represent offenses that get hot in the postseason, or offenses/defenses that get cold in the postseason, either. It's an incomplete picture, but the point still remains.

People are overdoing the "defense wins championships" thing because we just saw a defense shut down its opponent.

When Baltimore beat SF 34-31 last year, it wasn't defense winning that championship.
Absolutely, 100% true. People are totally overdoing the "defense wins championships" thing because of what we saw this past Sunday.

Like I said, 6 of the previous 7 Super Bowls had the team with the weaker defense win the game. And there are several mediocre defenses in that list.

I think Denver had the worst possible matchup for them and it showed, but fact is that the Seahawks are a beatable team. If they had to play the Niners again, I'm not so sure they'd beat 'em.
 
When it came down to it, the defense didn't make the stop at the big moment that they needed to make. Both times. I have no doubt the 01,03 and 04 D's would have. Both times.
Are you kidding? In both Super Bowls 36 and 38 the defense had a chance to cement the game but in each case they gave up game-tying TD's with under 2 minutes left.

The reason why we needed the Brady drive in SB36 was because the Rams scored with about 90 seconds left to tie the game. A virtually identical thing happened in SB38.
The Patriots with a strong D: 3 titles. With Brady as the focus: 0 titles. Fact. Indisputable.
Congratulations. You've just given us the exact same argument the Patriot-haters use when they talk about Spygate.
 
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