Cutting Top Draftees

[Brady6]

Jermaine Cunningham is listed at 252 pounds on the New England Patriots website:

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

Wilfork has been listed at 325 for the past decade on that site. Tommy Kelly is listed at 310 pounds, and it has Solder and Vollmer both as 6'8 320 pounds.

It also has Chandler Jones listed as 265 pounds despite the fact he weighed 266 pounds officially at the combine, and it's been widely reported that he gain 10-15 pounds off muscle over last season.

Chandler Jones - DE - Syracuse - 2012 NFL Combine Results

So I wouldn't put to much stock in the list weights on the website. If a player enters the NFL at 260 pounds and he begins training with NFL strength coaches, eating a proper diet, and he is reported in by multiple media outlets to have bulked up it is inconceivable to think his weight didn't increase.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I will say for the record I'd love to see all of the players weigh in because I do not feel many of the list weights are accurate anywhere.

Can't say that's something I would want to witness.

 

[BradyFTW!]

No they are not. Not at all. Tavon is a Strong Safety with the coverage ability of an average-good CB, and much better than the typical SS. He is sitting while learning as the A. Wilson experiment continues. Gregory is a good-average FS, who has and is playing his career as a undersized SS. Harmon is a Free Safety with the head to direct a Defense; and with average cover abilities of a typical FS. BB wants him to be a full size and faster version of Sanders.

Both are sitting and learning with better players in front of them. But the SSs will likely be gone with in 2 seasons, while McCourty looks to be a Probowl FS for the rest of his career. Both are good depth, and both are good ST too.

Ebner is the Slater of the secondary. He is a very good ST-only guy at this stage of his career. Maybe more, if he learns the game.

Not only can I not sign on to the characterization of Gregory as "good-average", but it makes it hard for me to take the rest of the analysis seriously. He's solid depth, but well below average as a starter.

 

[supafly]

He's solid depth, but well below average as a starter.

I think that would be a fair assessment of Gregory.

I don't think any of us would be terribly sorry to see him go, but I also don't think anyone wants to see a huge gaping hole of unknowns back there again either--so that's the debate (along with salary cap implications and replacement cost for someone else of at least equal talent).

 

[Brady6]

I think that would be a fair assessment of Gregory.

I don't think any of us would be terribly sorry to see him go, but I also don't think anyone wants to see a huge gaping hole of unknowns back there again either--so that's the debate (along with salary cap implications and replacement cost for someone else of at least equal talent).

I’d agree with the assessment that Gregory is a solid depth safety; the problem is that role doesn’t merit a $2,183,333 cap figure which is 15th on the Patriots, and more than we’re paying established veterans (granted their later in age) like Adrian Wilson, Tommy Kelly. I think we overpaid for Gregory, most likely because he performance was skewed playing next to Eric Weddle. Needless to say I would release him and take the nearly $1 mil cap savings.

 

[supafly]

I’d agree with the assessment that Gregory is a solid depth safety; the problem is that role doesn’t merit a $2,183,333 cap figure which is 15th on the Patriots, which is more than we’re paying established veterans (granted their later in age) like Adrian Wilson, Tommy Kelly. I think we overpaid for Gregory, most likely because he performance was skewed playing next to Eric Weddle. Needless to say I would release him and take the nearly $1 mil cap savings.

I understand the issue with him being overpaid and that may definitely come into play as Belichick decides his fate, but I still think it'd make more sense to keep him one more year until the young players are ready to take over. It may leave us with a big void at the position both in backup talent and ability to start in a pinch, so that's my concern.

That 1 million dollar cap savings that you speak of will then be given to another player in his replacement, so we have to ask ourselves if that player will be on the same level or better. If the answer is yes (maybe from another team's roster cut etc) then it may be a very reasonable solution. One way or another that money should be spent on the position of safety. Whether or not another safety would be added if Gregory is cut is unknown, but I wouldn't want to take that chance myself of just going with Harmon, T.Wilson, and Ebner as the backups/rotational guys.

 

[mgteich]

IMHO, keeping Ebner instead of Gregory does not help the team. The plan was always to be keep him this year and likely cut him after this year. That is the way the contract is structured. I see now reason to deviate from this plan. Let's take the pressure off Tavon Wilson and let him develop for another year, while he place special teams.

Arguably, with McCourty, A Wilson, and Gregory, safety is a strength. We also have two developmental players who can play special teams. That seems right. I does not seem right to weaken the team by cutting Gregory.

However, cutting Gregory could certainly happen if Tavon Wilson is very impressive in the next few weeks in pre-season games and practices or if a better option become available.

I’d agree with the assessment that Gregory is a solid depth safety; the problem is that role doesn’t merit a $2,183,333 cap figure which is 15th on the Patriots, and more than we’re paying established veterans (granted their later in age) like Adrian Wilson, Tommy Kelly. I think we overpaid for Gregory, most likely because he performance was skewed playing next to Eric Weddle. Needless to say I would release him and take the nearly $1 mil cap savings.

 

[Brady6]

I understand the issue with him being overpaid and that may definitely come into play as Belichick decides his fate, but I still think it'd make more sense to keep him one more year until the young players are ready to take over. It may leave us with a big void at the position both in backup talent and ability to start in a pinch, so that's my concern.

That 1 million dollar cap savings that you speak of will then be given to another player in his replacement, so we have to ask ourselves if that player will be on the same level or better. If the answer is yes (maybe from another team's roster cut etc) then it may be a very reasonable solution. One way or another that money should be spent on the position of safety. Whether or not another safety would be added if Gregory is cut is unknown, but I wouldn't want to take that chance myself of just going with Harmon, T.Wilson, and Ebner as the backups/rotational guys.

If Wilson is in fact in the doghouse which I tend to question (I commented another one of your posts in a different thread) I'd like to see them convert Dowling to safety personally. I think it would be a better fit for him, and also with him initiating the contact with the player in front of him it may limit the injuries.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Cutting Top Draftees

IMHO, keeping Ebner instead of Gregory does not help the team. The plan was always to be keep him this year and likely cut him after this year. That is the way the contract is structured. I see now reason to deviate from this plan. Let's take the pressure off Tavon Wilson and let him develop for another year, while he place special teams.

Arguably, with McCourty, A Wilson, and Gregory, safety is a strength. We also have two developmental players who can play special teams. That seems right. I does not seem right to weaken the team by cutting Gregory.

However, cutting Gregory could certainly happen if Tavon Wilson is very impressive in the next few weeks in pre-season games and practices or if a better option become available.

Based on what you and SF have written I'm now in agreement it does make sense to keep Gregory, the secondary has been such era on the side of caution.

That said from the Patriots perspective I'm sure there will be a level of disappointment that Wilson, Harmon and even Ebner aren't able to provide enough to instill enough confidence to result in Gregory being cut, especially considering its primarily a part time role as a deep coverage safety on passing downs and Gregory weakness is his coverage.

 

[ausbacker]

Deus knows (ha, a double entendre) how much his self-acknowledged "aggressive posting style" and lightning quickness to call everything that disagrees with him a homer -has irked me into responding back at him in a snarky manner...

... so much so that Im on his ignore list.

But there is no other poster here that I trust more than Deus' when it comes to actual football knowledge.

jays52 is at the top of my list and manx for the draftniks.

 

[jmt57]

Some folks think that we might cut a draftee if they are not good enough to make the 53. Others would cut 2nd year high draftees.

Let's be clear. Belichick has never cut a 1st-4th rounder before Game One. Belichick has never cut a 1st or 2nd rounder before Game One of his second year. I believe that he did cut a couple of awful 3rd rounder before the Game 2 of Year 2.
==========================

As much as folks dislike Bilichick's special needs picks (Bequette, Wilson, and Harmon), they will make the 53 unless Bilichick changes his attitude towards his draftees (which is of course possible).

The more time the coaching staff has to spend with a player, the more accurate their assessment will be. No matter how much time one spends watching college football, it does not replicate working directly with a player.

At some point the coaching staff will have a very good idea on what a player's ceiling is. It is highly unusual to see enough positives in a player that you were comfortable in investing an early draft pick on him, and then immediately after that see so few positives and so many negatives that you are now suddenly convinced his ceiling is low. The coaches are going to think back to what they saw before, and try and coax that potential out of the player.

In most cases a coaching staff has seen enough after three years that they are very comfortable in assessing what that player's ceiling is. Once that is done they can then decide if that is acceptable, or if they are better off starting the process over again with another unknown which potentially has a higher ceiling (despite the inherent risk of a lower floor, as well as the time needed to ramp up to that ceiling).

Obviously there is a different way of looking at players whose initial projections are lower, since there are so many more with similar initial grades. They are on a much shorter leash because there are so many more players with similar grades and projections available; the same is not true for those that were considered to be among the top 100 of their class coming out of college.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think that would be a fair assessment of Gregory.

I don't think any of us would be terribly sorry to see him go, but I also don't think anyone wants to see a huge gaping hole of unknowns back there again either--so that's the debate (along with salary cap implications and replacement cost for someone else of at least equal talent).

He's better definitely a whole lot better than Josh Barrett. That's a common ground that we can all agree on and be really, really relieved about.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not only can I not sign on to the characterization of Gregory as "good-average", but it makes it hard for me to take the rest of the analysis seriously. He's solid depth, but well below average as a starter.

If you look at what BB has done at the safety position in recent years, you really see nothing but mistakes. McCourty was a CB, not a safety, and I can't think of a single decent move at safety post-Meriweather. He's blown so many chances that Lindsey Lohan is jealous.

Maybe I'm missing someone who was a good call, but we may have a "take the keys to the car" situation at safety here, because his moves there have been so bad that it's as if he's been trying to screw it up.

 

[Clonamery]

If you look at what BB has done at the safety position in recent years, you really see nothing but mistakes. McCourty was a CB, not a safety, and I can't think of a single decent move at safety post-Meriweather. He's blown so many chances that Lindsey Lohan is jealous.

Maybe I'm missing someone who was a good call, but we may have a "take the keys to the car" situation at safety here, because his moves there have been so bad that it's as if he's been trying to screw it up.

He's probably doing "it" just to irk you.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Some folks think that we might cut a draftee if they are not good enough to make the 53. Others would cut 2nd year high draftees.

Let's be clear. Belichick has never cut a 1st-4th rounder before Game One. Belichick has never cut a 1st or 2nd rounder before Game One of his second year. I believe that he did cut a couple of awful 3rd rounder before the Game 2 of Year 2.
==========================

As much as folks dislike Bilichick's special needs picks (Bequette, Wilson, and Harmon), they will make the 53 unless Bilichick changes his attitude towards his draftees (which is of course possible).

Bequette's place near the bottom of the depth chart and spotty play is what puts his roster spot in question. He won't be saved by his draft status, BB has cut 3rd rounders after one year three times before (Brock Williams - 2001, Kevin O'Connell - 2008, Tyrone McKenzie -2009).

The way I look at it, he is on the outside looking in. I have Jones, Ninkovich, Benard and Francis making it with Cunningham, Bequette and Buchanan battling it out for the last spot.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Cutting Top Draftees

If you look at what BB has done at the safety position in recent years, you really see nothing but mistakes. McCourty was a CB, not a safety, and I can't think of a single decent move at safety post-Meriweather. He's blown so many chances that Lindsey Lohan is jealous.

Maybe I'm missing someone who was a good call, but we may have a "take the keys to the car" situation at safety here, because his moves there have been so bad that it's as if he's been trying to screw it up.

Its a trap!!

 

[mgteich]

Fair enough

I don't think Benard and Francis are locks.
I have Benard, Francis, Cunningham, Bequette and Buchanan competing for three spots.
Based on camp, Benard is a strong favorite.

Bequette's place near the bottom of the depth chart and spotty play is what puts his roster spot in question. He won't be saved by his draft status, BB has cut 3rd rounders after one year three times before (Brock Williams - 2001, Kevin O'Connell - 2008, Tyrone McKenzie -2009).

The way I look at it, he is on the outside looking in. I have Jones, Ninkovich, Benard and Francis making it with Cunningham, Bequette and Buchanan battling it out for the last spot.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Fair enough

I don't think Benard and Francis are locks.
I have Benard, Francis, Cunningham, Bequette and Buchanan competing for three spots.
Based on camp, Benard is a strong favorite.

Not locks, but probably leading the pack. FWIW, Reiss thinks "Francis looks like a lock."

Roster re-set for Patriots - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston