Curran article on Pats regularly beating probability of winning stats

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Curran gives us a very nice recap of recent history of the Pats facing blowouts and turning it around. Not all were wins, but they became interesting despite long odds.

Key point: those stats assume that the teams involved are statistically normal teams. Some teams are more prone to never give up, seem to always fight to the end, and have greatness at the helm

Curran: Patriots Super Bowl comeback was more probable than not

 

[Froob]

Also, amazingly true and probably only time it has ever happened

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Whoever designed that website needs to be taken outside and shot.

 

[K. Dog]

I like this line:
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They knew the avalanche could be started by the most delicately descending snowflake. Even if the chart didn’t.
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[convertedpatsfan]

Under BB and Brady, this team has always shown resiliency in the face of tough odds. We have won so many games we should have lost because they kept fighting. Yes, other teams make mistakes, but if you've given up already, you can't take advantage of those mistakes.

That's why when I watch Brandon Marshall on TV and he's proclaiming the game over by the 3rd quarter, I see an absolute loser. If you're a competitor and there's time on the clock, you're trying to win the game, not referring to stat probabilities to see if you should bother trying or not.

The other thing is that with Brady, we can do the impossible pretty consistently. With other teams, they have to play so well, do all the little things well, have all the breaks go their way. Yes, Atlanta fumbled the ball and gave us a short field. But they still won the turnover battle. They got out to a fast start. So many things they needed went right. And they still lost.

We can play like **** for 3 quarters and still have a chance to win. It seems unfair, but it's true, and it's why we should never turn off a game regardless of the score.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I assume that the odds for winning at the time the Patriots got the football at the 9 yard line with 3:40 or so to go would have been something like...

odds to score a TD on a 91 yard drive: ~20%
odds to convert the 2 pt. conversion: ~50%
odds to win in overtime: ~50%

taken together, this would be ~5%

Was ANYONE thinking the odds were 5%? I was worried about the 2 point conversion, but at that point in my mind I was certain the score was about to be 28-26, and if they made the 2, that there was no way in hell that the Patriots would lose in OT, however the flip went.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Also, amazingly true and probably only time it has ever happened

They beat the record by 5 seconds. In Super Bowl 5, the Baltimore Colts trailed the Cowboys nearly the entire game until they tied it up and won it on a field goal by rookie kicker Jim O'Brien with 5 seconds left in the game...
Super Bowl V Box Score | The Football Database

 

[Uncle Rico]

That's a great headline

 

[EddardSnow67]

I assume that the odds for winning at the time the Patriots got the football at the 9 yard line with 3:40 or so to go would have been something like...

odds to score a TD on a 91 yard drive: ~20%
odds to convert the 2 pt. conversion: ~50%
odds to win in overtime: ~50%

taken together, this would be ~5%

Was ANYONE thinking the odds were 5%? I was worried about the 2 point conversion, but at that point in my mind I was certain the score was about to be 28-26, and if they made the 2, that there was no way in hell that the Patriots would lose in OT, however the flip went.

I was a bit worried about the conversion, but at that point, I was feeling like the offense was completely unstoppable and when they lined up in trips and Atlanta stayed in straight man I knew they had it assuming Edelman and Hogan didn't completely whiff on their blocks. After that, I was 100% confident they would win the game. Atlanta was toast, you could see the desperation, arguing with one another, begging for every call...

With that said, Brian Poole made a HUGE mistake for the Falcons, reading the play inside when there was really no reason to. Ricardo Allen had perfect position and read the play side immediately and, having no one to cover on a quick throw, played it hard inside-out, so there was no inside lane for Amendola. Poole mind bogglingly tries to play Dola over the top, getting himself caught behind Jalen Collins, giving Danny outside leverage.

That's also a credit to Amendola's ability to stress the motion defender into cheating over the top and getting himself a lane to the end zone.

Just absolutely perfect execution, forcing a mental error on Poole's part. If Poole had kept outside leverage, Amendola would have had to break at least one tackle to get to the goal line. The Patriots literally forced the Falcons to open up that play.