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Comparing 2014 to 2013

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mgteich

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Obviously, we are hoping for lots of improvement because we expect fewer injuries and that SOME of the many youngsters from last year will improve.

In addition, we have replaced some players. Let's look at the new players and who they replaced.

DEFENSE - a serious upgrade, especially given that we have WIlfork, Kelly and Mayo back
REVIS - Talib
BROWNER - Green
EASLEY - VELLANO
CHUNG - A WILSON
HULL - FLETCHER (COLLINS replaced Spikes last year)
SMITH - Carter

OFFENSE - an upgrade because the receivers are expected to be healthier and more experienced
WHITE - BLOUNT
FLEMING - SVITEK
STORK - BARKER
LAFELL - THOMPKINS
GARRAPOLO - MALLETT

Obviously, some 6th rounders, 7th rounders and UDFA's may make the team and be upgrades. For now, I am looking at the team without them.

For now, the 53 man team need lose no vets (consider Mallett as the 53rd until Browner is back) although it seems likely that some will be replaced. Wendell, WIlson and Bequette come to mind as possibilities.
 
Your 1st statement
DEFENSE - a serious upgrade, especially given that we have WIlfork, Kelly and Mayo back

I'd take the May 2013 version of each of those players

Am I being too literal?
 
Yes.

I am comparing what I expect from this year's defense compared to what we actually achieved last year.

Your 1st statement
DEFENSE - a serious upgrade, especially given that we have WIlfork, Kelly and Mayo back

I'd take the May 2013 version of each of those players

Am I being too literal?
 
I expect a third year leap from these players –
-Chandler Jones
-Donta Hightower
-Alfonzo Dennard
-Tavon Wilson (dreaming maybe but I still think he can contribute)
-Brandon Bolden

I expect a second year leap from these players –
-Jamie Collins
-Aaron Dobson
-Logan Ryan
-Duron Harmon
-Josh Boyce
-Chris Jones
-Michael Buchanan

I expect these players to return healthy –
-Rob Gronkowski
-Jerod Mayo
-Vince Wilfork
-Sebastian Vollmer
-Shane Vereen
-Tommy Kelly

I expect these players to perform better for numerous reasons –
-Stevan Ridley
-Danny Amendola
-Nate Solder
-Logan Mankins

I expect these new additions to contribute –
-Darrelle Revis
-Brandon Browner
-Brandon LaFell
-Dominque Easley
-Bryan Stork

Overall, I think this is the best roster we have had since the 2007 team that went unbeaten in the regular season.
 
I expect a third year leap from these players –
-Chandler Jones
-Donta Hightower
-Alfonzo Dennard
-Tavon Wilson (dreaming maybe but I still think he can contribute)
-Brandon Bolden

I expect a second year leap from these players –
-Jamie Collins
-Aaron Dobson
-Logan Ryan
-Duron Harmon
-Josh Boyce
-Chris Jones
-Michael Buchanan

I expect these players to return healthy –
-Rob Gronkowski
-Jerod Mayo
-Vince Wilfork
-Sebastian Vollmer
-Shane Vereen
-Tommy Kelly

I expect these players to perform better for numerous reasons –
-Stevan Ridley
-Danny Amendola
-Nate Solder
-Logan Mankins

I expect these new additions to contribute –
-Darrelle Revis
-Brandon Browner
-Brandon LaFell
-Dominque Easley
-Bryan Stork

Overall, I think this is the best roster we have had since the 2007 team that went unbeaten in the regular season.

I think both Chung and T Wison can contribute, if they are restricted to only in the box Safeties or S/LB hybrid duties. Don't ask them to cover deep or do any FS duties, that both demonstrated was weakness in their games. . This is possible with the change to much more man coverage; and the extensive use of 5 and 6 man secondaries, ie 4-2-5.

I have said over and over, the post 2009 rebuilding was essentially complete last season, finishing with the Defense, at last.. Careful Stat analysis shows it, Only to have the Defense partially ruined by the injury bug.

IMHO, BB just added the whipped cream and cherry on top with Easly, another QB, and the prospective interior O-line upgrades, and the FA CBs signings.

This can prove to be an awesome Patriots edition.
 
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I expect a...leap from these players
My list:
Third year players:
-Donta Hightower (He looks like he could be a quiet version of Brandon Spikes against the run with more to offer as a pass rusher.)
-Tavon Wilson (I may be dreaming, too, but I think he has chance to do well with the improved secondary around him.)
While, I'm dreaming, I'm hoping to see more out of two 3rd year guys still learning their positions:
-James Develin
-Nate Ebner
I think the others you mentioned performed pretty much as I would expect this year with minor improvement. With more opportunity to rest provided by Smith, I think Jones can provide more impacts plays. I don't know that that's really a leap on his part. Hightower finally gets his chance to play his own position and go forward and rush the passer on play action, instead of having to turn and chase.

I expect a second year leap from these players –
-Jamie Collins
-Aaron Dobson
-Logan Ryan
-Michael Buchanan
I don't know what to expect from Harmon. With a full-time gig and teams game planning to him, I would not be surprised to find him have what will be called by some a sophomore slump. I don't know that Jones has the skills to earn enough time to make much of a jump, but he keeps being serviceable in a reduced-playing-time version of his prior role. I'm hopeful for Boyce, but I'm not ready to expect much.

I expect these players to return healthy –
-Jerod Mayo
-Sebastian Vollmer (healthy for a while, at least)
I don't know what to expect with Vince, and while I expect Gronkowski to return health, the question is "when?". If Vince is back on the opening day roster (and not PUP), I think Kelly is our surprise cut, despite returning and performing reasonably well in limited action.

I expect these players to perform better –
-Stevan Ridley (will hold onto the ball more consistently)
-Shane Vereen (a full year relatively injury free will show us why he was drafted in the 2nd round)
-Kyle Arrington (Gets less playing time, but plays the slot exclusively and does the job on the small quick guys.)
I expect Amendola will have more than one good game this year, but will mostly be a serviceable, overpaid 4th receiver behind Edelman, LaFell, and Dobson.

I expect these new additions to contribute in week 1 –
-Darrelle Revis
-Brandon Browner (well, week 5 for this guy, but an immediate impact that is evident in pre-season)
-Brandon LaFell (I think he will be a pleasant surprise and will win admirers around here with the way he plays the game.)
-Dominique Easley
-The Fresh Prince
I'm hopeful for Armstead, but I've never seen him play, so I can't rightly expect much. Stork I expect to be on the healthy scratch list for most of the season, but I think we will be happy with him by year's end.
 
The only leap I want to see is Jerry Jones take a leap out of his owners box onto the stands below!

All kidding aside I hope that in 2014 we don't use the ambulance more than we use the team bus as we did in 2013.
 
But what if the offense struggles early on even worse than last yr which can realistically happen. The offense's firepower is very limited with edelman/amendola on the field at same times. DB's r getting bigger longer,more physical n already faster n more athletic than or wr's. A decade or so ago a 6' or near 6' athletic fast corner in the draft was special. This yr n last yr it was normal.
 
But what if the offense struggles early on even worse than last yr which can realistically happen. The offense's firepower is very limited with edelman/amendola on the field at same times. DB's r getting bigger longer,more physical n already faster n more athletic than or wr's. A decade or so ago a 6' or near 6' athletic fast corner in the draft was special. This yr n last yr it was normal.

Isn't it a bit early to start running around yelling "The sky is falling"? Man, we haven't even hit TC yet and it's gloom and doom.
 
But what if the offense struggles early on even worse than last yr which can realistically happen. The offense's firepower is very limited with edelman/amendola on the field at same times. DB's r getting bigger longer,more physical n already faster n more athletic than or wr's. A decade or so ago a 6' or near 6' athletic fast corner in the draft was special. This yr n last yr it was normal.
We haven't lost any of our receivers and we had many guys that had their first year in the system last year. If anything everything points to the offense being more consistent this year.
 
I'm honestly excited for this season. But i don't have that much faith in Wilson or Chung. Actually, i believe only one of those will be on the roster when the nfl starts for realz.
About Harmon: Hopeful. I don't know what to expect, he flashed something last year, fingers crossed for improvement.

Easley or Armstead will have a great contribution, as i expect one of those to be the starter for the year, since i have my guts telling me that Kelly won't be around (or may be downgraded on thr depth chart)
 
Isn't it a bit early to start running around yelling "The sky is falling"? Man, we haven't even hit TC yet and it's gloom and doom.

It's not too early. Our new secondary will be in lockdown mode in TC, so the sky-is-falling WR corps threads are destined to occur. Why wait to start the threads, when we know the Revis effect is going to make the offense look bad?
 
So, you biggest "but" is concerning who might be our #4 or #5 safety. I'd say that we have a mighty fine defense it that is the case.

I'm honestly excited for this season. But i don't have that much faith in Wilson or Chung. Actually, i believe only one of those will be on the roster when the nfl starts for realz.

About Harmon: Hopeful. I don't know what to expect, he flashed something last year, fingers crossed for improvement.

Easley or Armstead will have a great contribution, as i expect one of those to be the starter for the year, since i have my guts telling me that Kelly won't be around (or may be downgraded on thr depth chart)
 
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I think we are going to have a lot more fake field goals this year, I think they make grape the holder for all field goals to get him some playing time, with the occasional fake to keep opponents guessing.
 
I think we are going to have a lot more fake field goals this year, I think they make grape the holder for all field goals to get him some playing time, with the occasional fake to keep opponents guessing.
I'm not so sure about that. It's very hard to block a field goal and happens very seldom. But it's not that hard to stop a fake field goal if you are the least bit prepared for it. So if we even fake it 3 times in the first 5 games(that would be a lot) teams would probably just focus on stopping the fake as stopping field goals doesn't happens often. Fake field goals work when the defense have absolutely no idea it's coming. Not when you do them relatively often to "keep the defense guessing".
 
2014 to 2013:

Offense:

QB: ’14 Tom Brady is one year old than the ’13 TB, but on the other hand (hopefully) the offensive line will perform better, as will the ’14 receiving corps compared to the ’13 inexperienced/injured unit.
Better or Worse? To Be Determined


RB: Shane Vereen missed weeks 2 through 10 last year; that injury combined with the departure of Danny Woodhead in free agency created a void for the Pats, especially on 3rd down. Vereen and Ridley are playing for new contracts, while it remains to be seen if James White (or Roy Finch) will be as productive as LaGarrette Blount was last year.
Better or Worse? TBD, but probably better


TE: Last year the position was in shambles because number 81 became inmate number 174594, and Gronk missed the first six games as well as the final month and the playoffs. The lack of attention given to the position in the off-season is as much if not more of a concern than the lack of depth at DT was a year ago, and we know how that turned out.
Better or worse? All depends on Gronk's rehab and continuing health.


WR: This was another position of concern entering 2013. Michael Jenkins lack of speed kept him from making the roster, and Donald Jones never got an opportunity as he had to retire due to kidney issues. That would have been bad enough, but then the player figured to be the top receiver, Danny Amendola, was injured in week one and never the same after that. End result was that instead of a rookie or two being brought along slowly, they were counted on to perform from day one. This year’s unit still has question marks – Dobson’s health, Lafell’s ceiling, Amendola’s injury history – and once again the situation on the outside is murky. Outlook is TBD during training camp, too much unknown here.
Better or Worse? Should be better, but still TBD.


OL: After allowing 27 sacks in 2012, the team gave up 40 last year, an increase of almost 50%. The interior – specifically Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly – did not look very good at times. The Pats addressed that during the draft, making this another area well worth watching during training camp. It would be nice if the club could get immediate production from either Bryan Stork or Jon Halapio (or both), but at the bare minimum there is now plenty of depth on this unit.
Better or Worse? Better, with players healthier and more depth.


Defense:


DT: Last year I was concerned about the lack of depth, and that became a nightmare when both Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly went on IR. While both are back for the 2014 season, I’m going to be cautious about any optimism for their productivity. There are plenty of bodies, but can anybody worthwhile step up if Wilfork can’t go – or at least be counted on to give him plays off over the course of the game, and the season? Dominique Easley may turn out to be a steal down the road, but the Pats really need him and his twice blown out knees to be on the field wreaking havoc this year.
Better or Worse? Better is a given, but needs to be much better


DE: Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich were on the field too much to be at optimum productivity last year. Who is going to step up and provide quality play to keep them fresh?
Better or Worse? TBD; an injury to either starter scares me.


LB: The unit will be much improved with the return of Jerod Mayo. Losing Brandon Spikes and Dane Fletcher creates a void in terms of depth, but the club will play a 4-2-5 as often as any formation. Hopefully Will Smith will be recovered enough to be a contributor as a situational pass rusher.
Better or Worse? Better, even with the depth concern.


S: Devin McCourty remains solid, while Duron Harmon presumably replaces Steve Gregory as the other starter. I don’t see this position as being in as bad shape as some others do, with some combination of Jemea Thomas, Kanorris Davis, Nate Ebner, Tavon Wilson, Jeremy Deering and perhaps Logan Ryan or even (doubtfully) Patrick Chung filling out the position. This should be a competitive camp battle worth watching, and a position of decent depth and excellent special teams play.
Better or Worse? Slightly better.


CB: Let’s face it, this position is night and day better than it was in 2013 – which is amazing considering the fact lost their number one corner in free agency. After the first month you have Revis and Browner, with Dennard as the #3 and either Ryan or Arrington as a #4 injury option. That’s quality at both the top end as well as in terms of depth.
Better or Worse: Vastly better.



Overall the club is better, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Injuries are a fact of life in the NFL, and a position of strength can quickly become one of weakness as we saw at TE and DT last year. There are plenty of positions to keep an eye on during training camp, but right now the club does have an opportunity to be improved over their 2013 season.
 
So, you biggest "but" is concerning who might be our #4 or #5 safety. I'd say that we have a mighty fine defense it that is the case.
Well, i see the whole chung/wilson/harmon debate being about the #2 safety (yeah Logan ryan may be in the mix as well)

Anyway, i do feel very confident about our defense. Lots of great players. My biggest concerns are definitely on the offense, with our WRs, OL, TE...
 
Your post is a testament to your moderate nature and controlled realism. Please allow me to go off the rails just a bit, and then try and justify it.

This is a team that went to the final 4 last season. ...And there is no team in the league that will improve more in the way of talent. This team will bring back no less that FOUR proven all pros (Gronk, Revis, Mayo, and Volmer) And that's 5 if you include Vince. No other team comes close to that kind of talent infusion. ESPECIALLY when you consider that in Gronk and Revis you have the single most impactful non- QB offensive player in the league in Gronk, and his counterpart on D, in Revis.

2014 to 2013:

Offense:

QB: ’14 Tom Brady is one year old than the ’13 TB, but on the other hand (hopefully) the offensive line will perform better, as will the ’14 receiving corps compared to the ’13 inexperienced/injured unit.Better or Worse? To Be Determined

Too contained JM - The QB play will be better. Mallett now has to up his game. Competition extends even to the backup QB position. As to Brady I have every belief that while the quality of HIS play may slip slightly, the quality of the play AROUND him should definitely improve and thus improve the overall offense exponentially. Just remember, when Gronk was on the field, this offense, worts and all, was the most prolific offense in the league. Now think about it WITH Gronk and improvement in every other area.
RB: Shane Vereen missed weeks 2 through 10 last year; that injury combined with the departure of Danny Woodhead in free agency created a void for the Pats.... Better or Worse? TBD, but probably better
Stop waffling. You made good points and you are right. The RB situation with a healthy Vareen, and Ridley playing for his future will once again make the Pats running game one of the better ones in the league. I am also looking to see an uptick from Devlin, especially in the passing game
TE: Last year the position was in shambles because number 81 became inmate number 174594, and Gronk missed the first six games as well as the final month and the playoffs...... Better or worse? All depends on Gronk's rehab and continuing health.
. People shouldn't worry about Gronk's health once he gets back. Prior to the Broken Arm he had 2 full regular seasons of great health. The TE position other than Gronk should see improvement for a couple of reasons. I think Hooman will get more looks this year. Keller would be an excellent signing if Healthy. I'm interested in season what Harrison and DJ Williams will have to show at the "move TE".

WR: This was another position of concern entering 2013..... Outlook is TBD during training camp, too much unknown here. Better or Worse? Should be better, but still TBD.
Unless you are prepared to believe that NONE of last year's rookie WR's will make any kind of leap, this year's WR group should be much better. DA is healthy, JE has his confidence at a lofty level, and Brandon LaFell is in an offense much better suited for his skill set. Lots of good talent and lots of competition for snaps.


OL: After allowing 27 sacks in 2012, the team gave up 40 last year, an increase of almost 50%. The interior – specifically Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly – did not look very good at times. The Pats addressed that during the draft, making this another area well worth watching during training camp. It would be nice if the club could get immediate production from either Bryan Stork or Jon Halapio (or both), but at the bare minimum there is now plenty of depth on this unit.
Better or Worse? Better, with players healthier and more depth.
Yes, finally a commitment JM. The OL IS going to be better this season, and it didn't suck last year.
Defense:


DT: Last year I was concerned about the lack of depth, and that became a nightmare when both Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly went on IR. While both are back for the 2014 season, I’m going to be cautious about any optimism for their productivity. There are plenty of bodies, but can anybody worthwhile step up if Wilfork can’t go – or at least be counted on to give him plays off over the course of the game, and the season? Dominique Easley may turn out to be a steal down the road, but the Pats really need him and his twice blown out knees to be on the field wreaking havoc this year.
Better or Worse? Better is a given, but needs to be much better
I won't quibble. This group WILL BE much better. CJones, Siliga. and Villano should all be better. And while I still can't see Vince having a 2012 kind of season, coming off an Achilles, I'm hopeful he can still be a better than average run stopper on first downs, GL's and SY situations. Kelly is the key guy to me. He was everything and more during his short season as far as an inside presence goes. 2.5 sacks in 4+ games for a DT is a good number. Having him alongside Easly and Armstead will give the Pats a legit inside pass rush.
DE: Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich were on the field too much to be at optimum productivity last year. Who is going to step up and provide quality play to keep them fresh?
Better or Worse? TBD; an injury to either starter scares me.
Between Smith, Buchanon, Hightower, Collins, Easly, Armstead, and even Jake Bequette, the Pats are going to enough talent to drop Ninko and Chandler's snap counts down 25-30% this season. But you are right, both those guys are at the top of the "can't get hurt" list.

LB: The unit will be much improved with the return of Jerod Mayo. Losing Brandon Spikes and Dane Fletcher creates a void in terms of depth, but the club will play a 4-2-5 as often as any formation. Hopefully Will Smith will be recovered enough to be a contributor as a situational pass rusher. Better or Worse? Better, even with the depth concern.
If this was still 2003 Spikes' loss would be a concern, but it isn't, so who cares. I think some position flexibility makes depth less of an issue than some may think. I really like the top 3 guys, and would have been happier if Fletcher had returned, but that's a luxury that being made up in the 2ndary more than in the LB room.

S: I don’t see this position as being in as bad shape as some others do, with some combination of Jemea Thomas, Kanorris Davis, Nate Ebner, Tavon Wilson, Jeremy Deering and perhaps Logan Ryan or even (doubtfully) Patrick Chung filling out the position. This should be a competitive camp battle worth watching, and a position of decent depth and excellent special teams play. Better or Worse? Slightly better.
I couldn't agree with you more. There is more than enough talent back there to really solidify this position. Don't be shocked to see Nate Ebner take a step forward. His measurables are just as good as any of the top S prospects. What he's lack is experience. Now he's be playing and practicing for 2+ years now. If he's going to be anything more than a core STer, now is the time to show us something.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see TWilson rebound. People think this kid can't cover, but they ignore the fact that he played more CB than S in college, he was drafted to be a bigger cover S, and that he has 5 picks in 2 years of VERY limited play. Sure he looked bad on 2 play action pass plays, but that was due to a bad read, not coverage skills. TB has made Troy P look MUCH worse many MORE times over the years, and not one is calling for his head?.

In 2011 at the end of the season, with our patchwork secondary the Pats made it to the Superbowl and the defense played will enough to win that game. Perhaps the best player in that secondary by the end of that year was Pat Chung. Clearly he lost it, after that year, but he's still got some physical skills and experience. At worst he's quality competition. At best, he a contributor.

Finally we come to Harmon, who is constantly being underestimated because he doesn't "knock people out". But he does everything else pretty well. He's a good tackler, a decent cover guy with exceptional hips. Basically a good all around solid player. Granted he's not an "all pro", but he's proven he's not a liability out their either.....and yet ANOTHER rookie who should see an uptick to his game going into his 2nd season


CB: Let’s face it, this position is night and day better than it was in 2013 – which is amazing considering the fact lost their number one corner in free agency. After the first month you have Revis and Browner, with Dennard as the #3 and either Ryan or Arrington as a #4 injury option. That’s quality at both the top end as well as in terms of depth.
Better or Worse: Vastly better.
Well said

Overall the club is better, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Injuries are a fact of life in the NFL, and a position of strength can quickly become one of weakness as we saw at TE and DT last year. There are plenty of positions to keep an eye on during training camp, but right now the club does have an opportunity to be improved over their 2013 season.
Not just "better"
JM..... MUCH better. And they will have to be because so many of their potential opponents got better as well.....just not to the same degree.
 
EDELMAN - a year of experience as a starter shouldn't hurt.

AMENDOLA - we should certainly get more from him than last year (not a high bar)

DOBSON - We should expect more from him than last year (not a high bar)

BOYCE - We should expect more from him than last year (not a high bar)

LAFELL/THOMPKINS - We should expect more than we got from Thompkins/Collie last year (not a high bar).

Sure, the results are TBD. However, it would hugely surprising if we did not get much more our of the wide receiver position this year.

To consider "worse" a reasonable outcome is being extremely pessimistic.

2014 to 2013:

Offense:


WR: This was another position of concern entering 2013. Michael Jenkins lack of speed kept him from making the roster, and Donald Jones never got an opportunity as he had to retire due to kidney issues. That would have been bad enough, but then the player figured to be the top receiver, Danny Amendola, was injured in week one and never the same after that. End result was that instead of a rookie or two being brought along slowly, they were counted on to perform from day one. This year’s unit still has question marks – Dobson’s health, Lafell’s ceiling, Amendola’s injury history – and once again the situation on the outside is murky. Outlook is TBD during training camp, too much unknown here.

Better or Worse? Should be better, but still TBD.
 
Isn't it a bit early to start running around yelling "The sky is falling"? Man, we haven't even hit TC yet and it's gloom and doom.

True, but its also way too soon to declare this Pats team better than 2013.

Just for starters:

We dont know if Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo will be the same.

We dont know if the WRs will take a huge leap in production or Almendola will stay healthy.

The draft picks are all hopefuls. How often do they all pan out? Do we really need to be reminded of Chad Jackson,Meriweather and players like Maroney?

After 9 off seasons of sunshine and rainbows believing the Pats are ready to win another Lombardi, shouldnt we have guarded optimism? I do.
 
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