I text with
@midwestpatsfan from time to time and he had this to say. Mike is a good dude that knows what he's talking about and isn't afraid to have an opinion.
It's possible I'm too low on Strange, I had a 3rd on him. Tough to argue against Bill and his resume they obviously felt Strange was a top 25-30 prospect and stuck to their boards.
Remember we picked Geneo Grissom before Flowers and Mason so it's about the collective in the end but I get the frustration. A ton of good prospects on the board though, a lot. I suspect we trade up in the 2nd and get a prospect everyone will love
I agree with you and your friend BCG. Don't allow people to bully you off a valid opinion derived from studying hundreds of prospects over the years. As far as I can tell you put a lot more hours into your scouting than any of the other forum posters.
The key to the gut reaction that this is a bad pick is the value is not there, it's as your friend put it, the opportunity cost. The Patriots had the opportunity to take the best remaining of premium positions and instead took a guard in the first, a position that is very fungible, and just how much difference will there be between the 2nd best guard of this class and the 4th or 6th best guard? Probably not a lot.
Meanwhile as the analyst and media reactions also point out, the Patriots could have taken a more premium position such as edge, corner, or even linebacker. Not only that despite what BB insisted in his press conference, to save face no doubt, many draft odds calculated that strange had a 93% chance of lasting until pick 54. If the Pats had gotten antsy on day 2 they could have easily moved up a few spots to ensure getting 'their guy' strange in round 2 while securing the premium asset in round 1.
The other thing we can't ignore is that the 'need for a guard' was a self-inflicted wound created by Belichick the GM. We had an all-pro guard locked up for the next 2 years for at least 2022/2023 and could have easily just held onto him and let him walk in free agency. Instead we flipped him for a 5th round pick, and then compounded the wound by fixing it with a 1st round selection of an interior lineman, passing over other more premium needs such as cornerback, edge, linebacker, etc.
Just look at who was taken immediately after the Strange pick - George Karliftis Edge, Daxton Hill DB, and Lewis Cine DB. Those 3 picks and all the players taken before the Patriots take their 2nd player on Day 2 will be compared to Strange as the cost of taking a guard in round 1. OOF.
The other problem is that 2021 draft aside, BB has pulled this crap before, and has lost the, oh we'll give him the benefit of a doubt. There have been too many 1st and 2nd round busts who were reaches that elicit a bad reaction from BB on draft day. It feels like oh, why was he the good GM in 2021, but the arrogant reacher every other draft? I suspect it might come down to the person stacking the draft board. In 2021, the Patriots employed, Dave Ziegler. He has since left to join McDaniels with the Raiders. Before 2021, it was Nick Caserio who was DOP. Was this the main difference in the 2021 draft and all the other BB drafts?
As for Day 2, the Patriots have plenty of picks to maneuver. And they might yet find a 'Barmore' level prospect who helps us forget that Strange was a bad reach. But it doesn't change the fact that round 1 was a wasted opportunity, and BB was properly roasted for overreaching by the media and the draft analysts.
