Andy, you certainly went to a lot of detail, thank you for the post.
Overall I agree that the multitude of formations and packages make it impossible to rely on the same 4 LBs all the time.
I am not as sold on some of the other analysis:
1) "IMO, given this assumption we are as strong as ever rushing the passer from our base" - For years the Patriots had two very good pass rushers, either McGinest and Vrabel or Vrabel and Colvin. Some years they had all three (at least for 1/2 hour before one of them was hurt). I don't see anything on the same level this year.
2) Thomas as primary pass rusher - The dilema with this is that he is also the best coverage OLB, if he is rushing then Woods / Mayo or Guyton is covering a TE. The Patriots had major issues with this last year. The good news is that with improved CBs the Safeties can help the LBs.
3) ILB - I actually think the OLB unit has more depth (just a lack of talent outside of Thomas). Again Thomas can shift inside adding more depth, he really is the key to the LBs.
All of the fancy smancy formations are nice but some teams (Colts) force teams to play their base, they use the no-huddle to exploit matchups, other teams (like the majority of the opponents this year) are run first, this means stuffing the run and setting the edges will be job number one for the LBs.
I went to practice on Tuesday, just from an eye ball test Guyton and Mayo looked to have bulked up. Lenon looks very slight, I can't see him making the team. Hopefully Crabel is back soon and can take over the Rosie Colvin spot.
Final analysis - I am not sold on the LBs, they should be average which will probably be good enough with the offense putting up 25 PPG.
1) Typically one of the OLBs almost exclusivley rush out of the base. The last 2 years it was Vrabel. As I said, the ability to be able to use either is a nice plus, but not a necessity. Consider one of the OLBs as a DE, the 4th pass rusher. Its AD now, and was Vrabel last year, McGinest in early years, etc. I don't put a lot of weight on the pass rush ability of a guy who doesnt pass rush. I suppose we have less potential than other years, but in the end Woods being the guy who doesnt rush or Thomas, or Vrabel or Colvin doesn't mean much IMO.
2) Well, we don't play a lot of man from the base, so I don't think any LB is 'covering the TE' per se. I dont see major issues with the coverage abilities of our LB crew, including Woods.
3) I'm fine with our ILB depth. Considering we use 2 on only half the plays, I'm good with Mayo, Bruschi, Guyton and Lenon. We almost have never played the 5th ILB on the depth chart, and I'm good with the quality of the backups.
I don't know how any team can 'force us into the base'. We don't even play the base D against the Colts we start in some variety of nickel.
I dont know how playing teams that like to run could be bad for us. The questions in our D aren't in stopping the run.
I think average is setting the bar very low.
Mayo and Thomas are far above average. Woods, Bruschi, Guyton, TBC, Crable (maybe) would have to be slouches to make the unit average, and I don't see a bunch of slouches and liabilities there, although I don't see the name value some fans like to base their analysis on.