Brady vs Mahomes

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Debate is over for the time being.
Kermit still has the best albeit slim chance of catching TB12 but it's gonna take a lot.

To paraphrase TB12’s broadcasting, Kermit should focus on achieving smaller goals first, like getting across midfield.

 

[Triumph]

 

[Triumph]

 

[Triumph]

 

[jal]

Some interesting things I've read:

1) If you normalize passer ratings by how many standard deviations above average for a given season: by career average Brady is almost identical to Mahomes (meaning, there's no meaningful statistical advantage for Mahomes and obviously have to take into account Mahomes will likely have a period to end his career where numbers dip)


2) Mahomes' footwork is highly unorthodox and he often relies on his actual arm strength more than sound throwing fundamentals (feet up) even for pretty standard inside the pocket passes (not just talking about his no look, sidearm throws and throws outside the pocket). That is not going to age as well as throwing with sound mechanics (where the arm strength itself isn't as important)...so it's not just his scrambling / moving out of the pocket that will likely dip over time but even inside the pocket his style isn't going to age as well. He can definitely focus on improving his mechanics over time as an opportunity area, and maybe he will...but some NFL film junkies I've talked to have said it's not something that he seems to have focused on improving to date and he basically plays the same way he always has from a mechanical standpoint. Clearly his "dad bod" that he's famous for also indicates that to date he hasn't taken the nutrition / lifestyle part of the game as seriously as Brady either.

I saw a couple of links on this but can't seem to find them now...will edit this post when I do.

3) Generally I think for a variety of reasons that if Mahomes is going to catch Brady, he pretty much has to do it in the next ~5 years because it will be too late for him after that. His own play likely will deteriorate beyond that window (5-7 years), Andy Reid / Spags will retire (maybe before 5 years), and in the next 1-3 years the core star players of the roster will have to be rebuilt with new superstars acquired to replace Kelce and Chris Jones (easier said than done). In other words, Mahomes' window is NOW and it's uncertain if he gets another one (without switching teams) while he's still at a superstar level of play.

 

[jal]

Mahomies get so mad to hear this, but fact is that he has been very mediocre statistically the past 2 years. Heck, he didn't even get selected for the Pro Bowl this year.

I tried to warn them all year long that he just wasn't that good this year, but they hid behind the team's stellar record. Not really that much you can say in response to that, but anyone in here remember the idiocy of the "Can the Chiefs go undefeated?" thread?

If we are being fair - the dip is because he no longer has a superstar offensive supporting cast (Hill gone, Kelce slowing down finally). We saw the same happen to Brady when he got crap support (2006, 2013, 2019) and it clearly had little to do with the level of QB play. I don't think Mahomes himself has declined much, but it goes to show how much the supporting cast matters for stats. The Chiefs overall however I think have been a stronger team because they've been more well-rounded with a strong defense. It's better to build a well rounded team than depending on your QB to always string together 3-4 great games in the playoffs - more robust system will beat a highly leveraged system in a one loss and you are out playoff format.

That's why I've never been a "stats only" or "wins only" guy - have to judge it holistically, in context, and personally for me with more emphasis on level of play in big moments. That last bit is a big reason why I put Mahomes ahead of Rodgers and Brees and at least at the same level as Peyton despite probably not quite reaching the same level of regular season play / mastery of the QB position esp. compared to Peyton (Mahomes will pass Peyton in my eyes simply with more years even if those years have less success than Mahomes has shown career to date). Mahomes has come through in big moments many many times with relatively few failures. Only Brady and Montana are ahead of him in that count among the QBs that I've personally seen.

Maybe that's because Andy Reid is also a genius and has schemed some wide open guys on critical downs, some obviously lucky ref calls, etc. but at the end of the day all of these guys have had a lot of support and luck too (as well as unlucky moments) - that stuff tends to normalize over time. We will see how long Mahomes can keep it up....I doubt for many reasons he's going to catch Tom but that's no shame, Tom had by far the greatest career this sport has ever seen.

 

[Sect140]

To me I think Montana is back in the picture as 2nd beast QB.

Montana: 4-0
Mahomes: 4-2

 

[XLIX]

To me I think Montana is back in the picture as 2nd beast QB.

Montana: 4-0
Mahomes: 4-2

Montana never left the picture, except amongst the near sighted mediots who can't remember anything not currently in front of their faces.

BTW, if you're talking about Super Bowls, Mahomes is 3-2.

 

[sb1]

To me I think Montana is back in the picture as 2nd beast QB.

Montana: 4-0
Mahomes: 4-2

Take Mahomes getting +17 points in Super Bowls and he's still 3-2.

 

[Sect140]

Take Mahomes getting +17 points in Super Bowls and he's still 3-2.

You and XLIX are correct, I guess I got ahead of myself. LOL!

 

[TB12TheGoat]

3) Generally I think for a variety of reasons that if Mahomes is going to catch Brady, he pretty much has to do it in the next ~5 years because it will be too late for him after that. His own play likely will deteriorate beyond that window (5-7 years), Andy Reid / Spags will retire (maybe before 5 years), and in the next 1-3 years the core star players of the roster will have to be rebuilt with new superstars acquired to replace Kelce and Chris Jones (easier said than done). In other words, Mahomes' window is NOW and it's uncertain if he gets another one (without switching teams) while he's still at a superstar level of play.

I was talking about this with a Chiefs friend of mine the other day. if Mahomes wants to have any chance of catching Brady then in the next 5-7 years he needs to win 3 rings and average around 5,000 yards and 40 passing TD in the regular season. even if he does that, he's still behind and would need to do some more in his late 30s, 40, 41, etc. he clearly won't play as long as Brady and will likely show a noticeable decline starting around 37-39 years old so he has to go super saiyan in his 30s

 

[PatriotSpy]

Will be interesting to see Kelce fall off a cliff next year and see the corresponding decline in Mahomes play. I mean how many times is he throwing to a wide open Kelce? If it's not that, he's running for first downs and his quickness and acceleration will decrease over the next few years. Those two things taken out of the equation makes things interesting as to how Mahome's career goes.

 

[Guts]

I was talking about this with a Chiefs friend of mine the other day. if Mahomes wants to have any chance of catching Brady then in the next 5-7 years he needs to win 3 rings and average around 5,000 yards and 40 passing TD in the regular season. even if he does that, he's still behind and would need to do some more in his late 30s, 40, 41, etc. he clearly won't play as long as Brady and will likely show a noticeable decline starting around 37-39 years old so he has to go super saiyan in his 30s

You get a winner react for the saiyan reference alone

 

[Guts]

Will be interesting to see Kelce fall off a cliff next year and see the corresponding decline in Mahomes play. I mean how many times is he throwing to a wide open Kelce? If it's not that, he's running for first downs and his quickness and acceleration will decrease over the next few years. Those two things taken out of the equation makes things interesting as to how Mahome's career goes.

I'm sure KC will design their offense around Worthy/Rice with Kelce being a third option that be the smart thing to do since Kelce has slowed down

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'm sure KC will design their offense around Worthy/Rice with Kelce being a third option that be the smart thing to do since Kelce has slowed down

Kelce is coooooked

 

[aluminum seats]

KC’s success in one score games will come down to earth too

 

[amfootball]

I was talking about this with a Chiefs friend of mine the other day. if Mahomes wants to have any chance of catching Brady then in the next 5-7 years he needs to win 3 rings and average around 5,000 yards and 40 passing TD in the regular season. even if he does that, he's still behind and would need to do some more in his late 30s, 40, 41, etc. he clearly won't play as long as Brady and will likely show a noticeable decline starting around 37-39 years old so he has to go super saiyan in his 30s

That decline has already begun. It has been 2 years now of decline. He didn't make the pro bowl this year despite only losing one legit game. IMO, he has about 3-5 years to try to stack as many chips as possible to catch Brady. There is no way he is playing high level football at age 35 or beyond.

 

[signbabybrady]

No coach is getting anywhere near 6 either

 

[sb1]

Brady at age 30: 16-0 and shattering a bunch of NFL records
Mahomes at age 30: 6-6, 13th in passer rating, and on the verge of losing his division to a Bo Nix team.


And of course he remains 0-2 against Brady in games that matter.

 

[borg]

Brady at age 30: 16-0 and shattering a bunch of NFL records
Mahomes at age 30: 6-6, 13th in passer rating, and on the verge of losing his division to a Bo Nix team.

Patty is definitely not aging as slowly as Brady. Lack of avocado soy-shakes, no doubt.
Biggest short(ish)-term question for KC: How will they replace Mahomes' binky, Travis Kelce, who is 36 and soon marrying a billionaire?

OT: What happened to Lamar Jakson's wheels? DTs are running him down.