Brady videotape analysis

[crowell33]

Spent some time after today's loss looking over the old 2001, 2003, & 2004 Playoff / SuperBowl DVD's and compared Brady's throwing motion to games from this season. I went into this exercise troubled by the belief that Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Tate, Woodhead, Deion Branch, and Edelman were at least the equivalent of the old receiving corps.

I was surprised to find his footwork, throwing motion, arm slot, arm strength, and weight distribution all seemed identical. What I did find, was obvious, and jumped right off the screen at me. The old Brady, often seemed to have less time to throw then he does now. Amazingly however, the old Brady would make a half step left or right, shifting in the pocket to avoid the rush, then step forward toward the line of scrimmage as the pocket collapsed, often behind him. This would often result in Brady taking an awful hit, but also gave the wide receiver the extra second to get open.

That trademark intra pocket shifting and stepping up and throwing into a collapsing pocket has nearly vanished. Pressure with "2010 Brady" instead is much more likely to result in moving backwards out of the pocket, with throws out of bounds or at the receivers feet. It would seem a near certainty that the knee injury of 2008, has resulted in a more cautious approach, necessitating wide receiver separation much quicker than in the SuperBowl years.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

Thanks for the insight.

I'm not necessarily claiming fear of being re-injured is a major factor hurting Brady's performance. However, many quarterbacks see their production decline after a significant injury, or injuries, simply because they're no longer willing to take a hit to make a completion.

 

[swheeler23]

With his receivers leading the NFL in dropped passes, why take a hit for someone to just drop the pass anyway?

 

[mr3putt]

I would agree that his slide step mobility has diminished significantly
Even more disturbing is his tendency to two step when sensing any pressure
He is clearly not the same.
He may be good enough...but he ain't the same Tommy
Sad
Thanks Pollard..you cheap shot ****

 

[WhiZa]

I'd be interested to see this in video comparison myself if you have time to put it up

 

[VectorPrime]

You might be looking into it too much, who knows how much that has affected him. And you didn't examine footage from 2007, maybe he changed that year to adapt to the new style of offense and he has kept at it.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

I would agree that his slide step mobility has diminished significantly
Even more disturbing is his tendency to two step when sensing any pressure
He is clearly not the same.
He may be good enough...but he ain't the same Tommy
Sad
Thanks Pollard..you cheap shot ****

Brady's possible deterioration is almost a non-issue, really.

Suppose Tom Brady in 2010 is 10-20% below Tom Brady in his peak years. He's still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and it's difficult if not impossible for the Patriots to upgrade the quarterback position from where it is currently, in the near term.

Therefore the Patriots are "stuck" having a very good to excellent quarterback. There are 22 or more teams that would love to be in that position.

 

[VectorPrime]

Brady's possible deterioration is almost a non-issue, really.

Suppose Tom Brady in 2010 is 10-20% below Tom Brady in his peak years. He's still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and it's difficult if not impossible for the Patriots to upgrade the quarterback position from where it is currently, in the near term.

Therefore the Patriots are "stuck" having a very good to excellent quarterback. There are 22 or more teams that would love to be in that position.

Um, I think it is safe to say that no less than 28 teams would love to have Tom Brady as QB. And rightfully so.

 

[Fencer]

Spent some time after today's loss looking over the old 2001, 2003, & 2004 Playoff / SuperBowl DVD's and compared Brady's throwing motion to games from this season. I went into this exercise troubled by the belief that Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Tate, Woodhead, Deion Branch, and Edelman were at least the equivalent of the old receiving corps.

I was surprised to find his footwork, throwing motion, arm slot, arm strength, and weight distribution all seemed identical. What I did find, was obvious, and jumped right off the screen at me. The old Brady, often seemed to have less time to throw then he does now. Amazingly however, the old Brady would make a half step left or right, shifting in the pocket to avoid the rush, then step forward toward the line of scrimmage as the pocket collapsed, often behind him. This would often result in Brady taking an awful hit, but also gave the wide receiver the extra second to get open.

That trademark intra pocket shifting and stepping up and throwing into a collapsing pocket has nearly vanished. Pressure with "2010 Brady" instead is much more likely to result in moving backwards out of the pocket, with throws out of bounds or at the receivers feet. It would seem a near certainty that the knee injury of 2008, has resulted in a more cautious approach, necessitating wide receiver separation much quicker than in the SuperBowl years.

Interesting.

It sounds as if you're comparing his best/biggest plays of those years to average plays from this year. How sure are you you adjusted for that bias? E.g., the 65-yarder to Tate took a lot of evasion.

Also, as previously noted, in 2007 he held the ball for quite a while before delivering it. So presumably he hadn't changed that tendency at that point.

 

[mr3putt]

Brady's possible deterioration is almost a non-issue, really.

Suppose Tom Brady in 2010 is 10-20% below Tom Brady in his peak years. He's still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and it's difficult if not impossible for the Patriots to upgrade the quarterback position from where it is currently, in the near term.

Therefore the Patriots are "stuck" having a very good to excellent quarterback. There are 22 or more teams that would love to be in that position.

It is an issue when facing heavy pressure
Without Welker's quick cuts there is no one who can get open fast on a hot read
OC needs to call more slants and screens but I have been saying that for 2 years
Tommy will get smoked by good defenses.
Watch next week
It won't be pretty

 

[convertedpatsfan]

The type of pressure also matters. Last week, a lot of the pressure came from the edges, and Brady was able to side-step that quite effectively, especially on that Tate play. But there was also a great play earlier in the season where he literally ducked under a blitzer.

The pressure today came more up the middle, which is something Brady has always struggled with, and was quite evident against the Giants in 2007.

 

[crowell33]

Interesting.

It sounds as if you're comparing his best/biggest plays of those years to average plays from this year. How sure are you you adjusted for that bias? E.g., the 65-yarder to Tate took a lot of evasion.

Also, as previously noted, in 2007 he held the ball for quite a while before delivering it. So presumably he hadn't changed that tendency at that point.

Actually no. The discs contain every snap of each playoff game.

I would agree. Although I have zero footage of 2007, my best guess is that it would align with earlier in his career.

 

[Deus Irae]

In other words, Brady is fine, and you've got nothing to back up all your whining in the game thread.


Not really a surprise.

 

[The Dynasty]

The type of pressure also matters. Last week, a lot of the pressure came from the edges, and Brady was able to side-step that quite effectively, especially on that Tate play. But there was also a great play earlier in the season where he literally ducked under a blitzer.

The pressure today came more up the middle, which is something Brady has always struggled with, and was quite evident against the Giants in 2007.

Very good point. The OL has struggled the past few weeks but it has gone unnoticed because Brady has been able to escape the pressure and make plays, this week that wasnt the case. You are right when you say Brady has trouble with the pressure coming from up the middle as opposed to from the edges.

If the OL performed better Brady would as well. The running game would get better, and help set up the pass more as well. It all starts with the OL. I would expect BB to challenge the OL this week and hopefully they will rise to the occasion

 

[crowell33]

Brady's possible deterioration is almost a non-issue, really.

Suppose Tom Brady in 2010 is 10-20% below Tom Brady in his peak years. He's still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and it's difficult if not impossible for the Patriots to upgrade the quarterback position from where it is currently, in the near term.

Therefore the Patriots are "stuck" having a very good to excellent quarterback. There are 22 or more teams that would love to be in that position.

Completely Agree.

 

[letekro]

No question that the difference between the TB who was 1A-1B with Manning and the TB now who is clearly behind Manning, Rivers and Brees, is that extra-quarter second in the pocket. Before, he stood in to make the completion, now he bails out.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Thanks for the insight.

I'm not necessarily claiming fear of being re-injured is a major factor hurting Brady's performance. However, many quarterbacks see their production decline after a significant injury, or injuries, simply because they're no longer willing to take a hit to make a completion.

Brady had 10 minutes and no one rushing at him when he missed Branch by a good 5 feet as Deion was cutting over the middle. Was not in danger of getting hit when he missed an open Gronk in the left flat. That's what's so disturbing about Brady's game this year. He's making bad throws when he's not under pressure and he's been doing it all year long. This O line has protected him very well this year. Brady is also coming out flat all too often at the beginning of games. This offense isn't going to improve until he does.

 

[BradyManny]

Spent some time after today's loss looking over the old 2001, 2003, & 2004 Playoff / SuperBowl DVD's and compared Brady's throwing motion to games from this season. I went into this exercise troubled by the belief that Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Tate, Woodhead, Deion Branch, and Edelman were at least the equivalent of the old receiving corps.

I was surprised to find his footwork, throwing motion, arm slot, arm strength, and weight distribution all seemed identical. What I did find, was obvious, and jumped right off the screen at me. The old Brady, often seemed to have less time to throw then he does now. Amazingly however, the old Brady would make a half step left or right, shifting in the pocket to avoid the rush, then step forward toward the line of scrimmage as the pocket collapsed, often behind him. This would often result in Brady taking an awful hit, but also gave the wide receiver the extra second to get open.

That trademark intra pocket shifting and stepping up and throwing into a collapsing pocket has nearly vanished. Pressure with "2010 Brady" instead is much more likely to result in moving backwards out of the pocket, with throws out of bounds or at the receivers feet. It would seem a near certainty that the knee injury of 2008, has resulted in a more cautious approach, necessitating wide receiver separation much quicker than in the SuperBowl years.

Interesting take and analysis. I agree with the final conclusion - just not the cause of it. I don't think its the injury, I think it's having to adjust to life without Moss. Because even with this technique, he was having a great year while #81 was here - I don't know if you rewatched any of the Moss games or if it showed any noticeable differences.

Defenses are simply not respecting our deep threat at all, and when I rewatched the last few games, it simply comes down to the fact that no one is remotely open, and that his progressions are not designed to find the guy who is open if someone does happen to be so.

All 11 defenders are within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, 8 of them in the box, teams are getting pressure WITHOUT blitzing and dropping more men into coverage - it is, quite frankly, hopeless to pass against these kind of defenses.

Everything he has worked on the last 3 seasons and in this training camp is thrown out the window. It's been 4 years since he's had to work this hard to create completions and he's not used to it. His passes have been noticeably off the mark since the moment Moss was traded.

This is no coincidence since he was leading the league in catchable passes by a margin while Moss was here.

He's going to have to become re-accustomed to throwing the ball into tight windows to less-skilled or young receivers again.

 

[BradyManny]

He's making bad throws when he's not under pressure and he's been doing it all year long. This O line has protected him very well this year.

This simply isn't true - he was throwing about 80% catchable passes (completion % + dropped ball %) through 4 games, leading the NFL.

Frankly, statistically speaking, Brady could not have been any more accurate than he was through 4 games, and I doubt he's ever gone through a stretch with that accuracy, even in 2007.

Since the Moss trade, I doubt he's gone through a stretch of this inaccuracy since his first season as a pro.

Anyone not seeing that a light switched when Moss was removed from this team is not wanting to come to the harsh reality that defenses have adapted and we can't get guys open anymore. And the harsher reality that Brady is having trouble adjusting to this.

I hate admitting this since I was a proponent of the Moss trade, but you have to admit when you are wrong.

 

[serifyn]

yesterdays loss was worrisome indeed for a multitude of reasons, hopefully it was the team looking past the game, if that was the case, it will be an example for future and shouldn't be too difficult to fix as the team gets older and healthier.

however there are some observations i have about this team which have lasting effects.

1. The Defense - What we knew was a bad pass defense and 3rd down defense (worst in the league) has devolved into a poor run defense as well. Peyton Hillis is a good back, but when you cant stop him from running 8+ yards per carry when you have 8 in the box you are a terrible-abysmal defense. you really cant say enough bad things about the defense yesterday, the browns controlled the entire game with the run, and they knew it was coming all week.

furthermore, them being able to run opens up the play-action which absolutely murders the patriots. i dont have alot of faith that this team can beat the hard-running teams like the steelers, ravens and yes, jets in the playoffs. as long as they can run and they got a QB with half an arm, the patriots dont look like they can stop them.

2. The Offense - The Browns came into the game with a unique gameplan for brady, Dont show your defense by not setting a line and then drop into coverage, as the defense is still unable to stretch the field, tom had to settle for short yardage passes for minimal gain, this team is hurting without randy moss, who even as a decoy opened up significant opportunities for welker and hernandez.

3. The Road - For whatever reason, Tom Brady plays like complete crap on the road. he hasn't looked particularly good on any road game this year, and i dont even want to imagine him this week in Pittsburgh, i think he gets nervous when he cant hear whats going on around him and his pass accuracy is reflected by this.

Even with all of these concerns, the patriots are still talented and have good coaching, but none of it showed yesterday.