Brady on deep passes vs. rest of league

[QuantumMechanic]

(Mods: if you think this is best served being in one of the existing threads talking about the game, feel free to move it.)

In Mike Tanier's previews of the division round games he has this statistical nugget, which I thought was interesting enough to pass along:

On passes that travel 20 or more yards in the air, Tom Brady is 16-of-62 for 509 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions this season, according to the Football Outsiders internal database.

The NFL average on these 20-plus-yard passes—let's call them Actual Deep passes, because the cutoff of 15 yards used for deep passes in the official play-by-play is ridiculously low—20-of-56 for 644 yards, 4.6 touchdowns and 3.9 interceptions. Brady throws downfield more than the average quarterback (surprising, though the 20-yard cutoff still allows for many mid-range passes) but enjoys it less, with a low interception rate as a mitigating factor.

(snip)

Brady is 5-of-17 for 150 yards when throwing Actual Deep to Rob Gronkowski. That makes him 11-of-45 for 359 when throwing Actual Deep passes to his receivers, other tight ends and running backs on the wheel routes New England likes to use to break tendencies.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

And here are the numbers for Flacco:

Here are Joe Flacco's Actual Deep passing numbers: 15-of-40, 548 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. That's right, Flacco throws deep less frequently than Brady and less frequently than the NFL average. Gary Kubiak has shaved some of the 60-yard heaves off the Ravens offense this year, replacing them with his signature play-action rollouts to tight ends or receivers on crossing routes.

It has been a good trade: Flacco's completion rate is up over three points from last season, his yards per attempt were higher than his career average (7.2 to 7.0), and he set career highs in yards and touchdowns.

There are still just enough satellite-trajectory bombs to generate both big plays and pass interference: Torrey Smith has drawn 11 pass interference flags for 229 yards

 

[mayoclinic]

And here are the numbers for Flacco:

Presumably that doesn't include the penalty yards from deep pass attempts, for which the Ravens led the league (again). That might change things.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm always struck by how often Brady overthrows his receivers on these deep passes. I'm convinced he deliberately errs on the side of caution with these deep throws by still giving his receiver a chance but ensuring the covering DB can't get it.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

I'm always struck by how often Brady overthrows his receivers on these deep passes. I'm convinced he deliberately errs on the side of caution with these deep throws by still giving his receiver a chance but ensuring the covering DB can't get it.

deep ball INT is a momentum killer too. it sucks the energy out of the stadium when you are home. it makes fans go crazy when you are away.

 

[Oswlek]

IIRC, Tom's deep ball numbers were abominable for he first month. I wonder what they look like since then.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I'm always struck by how often Brady overthrows his receivers on these deep passes. I'm convinced he deliberately errs on the side of caution with these deep throws by still giving his receiver a chance but ensuring the covering DB can't get it.

If you watch his throws, you can easily tell that he tries to put it in a spot least likely for an int. Brady lives by the sayin, live for another down.