That is where my head is, but I have to admit this is the most difficult draft season for me to get a handle on. Take a look at the generally agreed up areas of need:
OL - Mankins, Light and Neal could all be back. Connolly, Wendell and Ohrnberger all have experience in the program and could have been released multiple times (but weren't). Maneri and Ojinnaka were acquired for a reason. This doesn't even count Kaczur coming back.
DL - The Pats have 8 players that have started (Wilfork, both Warrens, Wright, Brace, Pryor, Love, Deaderick). Moore proved to be a solid rush specialist out of 40 front. And Richard is still hanging around.
CB - Bodden and McCourty are the starters. Butler has the talent to be a solid nickel/backup and Wilhite has experience in the system. Arrington is amazingly valuable as a solid corner and special teams ace.
S - Say what you want about Meriweather but he makes plays for a defense that needs playmakers. Chung is solid and improving and the coaches seem very comfortable with Sanders. Sergio and Josh Barrett have to be a consideration and McGowan and Page could both be brought back.
WR - Assume Branch and Welker return as the top guys. Tate just needs more time with Brady to break out. Edelperson has produced whenever he has been given regular practice/game reps. Price has the physical skills to be very productive and needs to be in the mix.
Depending on Belichick's evaluations, each of these positions could be all set for 2011. Or Belichick may want to make major changes for any of them. Outside of RB and OLB, it is impossible to know which youngsters are on the verge of getting major snaps and which are on the verge of collecting unemployment.
So outside of getting one or two OLBs early in the draft and grabbing a RB at some point (they can be had anytime), this draft could go a million different ways.
About the only thing in your unit evals I'd dispute is the D-line. Outside of Wilfork and Ty Warren (who may or may not continue to be productive on his return), we have quantity in D-linemen, but not necessarily quality. This set has to have been the worst at shedding/tackling in BB's career with the Pats. OTOH, aside from Brace, BB hasn't invested very much, pick-wise, in any of them.