Bill Belichick's draft strategy.

[Deus Irae]

Where did I say BB is great BB is God? I admit he isnt perfect with his picks, although no one is, Im just saying the strategy he employs for the draft is sound. Looking back and saying they could have, should have picked this guy is a fools game because its using 20-20 hindsight.
We're not idiots Deus, we know last years teams had its faults, there was a few of us that thought they still could be Super Bowl Champions the way the team was constructed, we we're wrong.

You denigrated others as "arm chair GMs" and you gave us the "In order to rate BB's drafts you'd have to look back and see what they traded for and what they got, or you could just go by the end results". Well, the "arm chair GMs" were right about years of the draft, and the results were bad draft picks. Pointing to the on-the-field results, which are not just the draft, is a way of shining up BB. Leave that sort of thing to the over-the-top homers.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

You denigrated others as "arm chair GMs" and you gave us the "In order to rate BB's drafts you'd have to look back and see what they traded for and what they got, or you could just go by the end results". Well, the "arm chair GMs" were right about years of the draft, and the results were bad draft picks. Pointing to the on-the-field results, which are not just the draft, is a way of shining up BB. Leave that sort of thing to the over-the-top homers.

Douche

Even for you, this is completely, god awful stupid.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I have been a big proponent of trading down /out til next year - for the last many years - and IF Bill trades that is usually a good thing as it means: a) he found a trade partner (sorry that Dead Al can no longer be bait) and B) Bill believes it is worth trading as he doesnt trade just for fun.......oops - he did last year with Andy Reid. Nevertheless - the fact remains the following:

a) Pats in good salary cap shape now and it looks like next couple of years -so no need for big youth movement (did that a few years ago).

b) many of recent 2-3 NEP drafts have gone well and those players are entering their prime (Mayo, Wilfork, Seabass, Gronk, Chung, Hernandez, hopefully McCourtey) and promising up and comers need game playing time to see if can reach potential Ridley, Vereen, Solder, Canon, Ras I Dowling, etc.

c) NEP have gone bargin Vet FA shopping in a big way for depth. last I read over 70 players under contract for training camp

d) we have seen all to many times last few years that our late draft picks just end up on other teams and our practice squad gets raided.

e) new rookie salary cap makes first rounders reasonable priced

f) new system allows only first rounders to get 5 year contracts -everyone else is max 4 years (and not so often that NEP rookies see much playing time which means 4 year contract = only 3 years good production IF without injury)

g) Brady is nearing the end.......he does need a 4th ring to be where he belongs up with Montana / Bradshaw. Seriously, in 10 years WE could be like Dolfans and Bills fans waiting for the next Marino, Kelly, (Brady). We do need to win now to be immortalized like the Steelers / 49'ers / Cowboys of past generations.

h) this years schedule is pretty cushy for another possible 1st round playoff bye.

This 2012 team is stocked for depth and locked and loaded........Patriots ARE really 1-2 difference makers on defense from another Lombardi.

Think of how close we were to SB victory in '07 and '11. In the recent playoff defeats - most were also close (only the Ravens loss was lobsided). Just a play or two the other way WILL make the difference for another trophy.

In the old days, a Willie Mac stop or a Vrabel sack or a Bruschi forced fumble or a Ty Law interception would seal the deal in the 4th quarter. I am not saying to trade the farm for a lottery ticket. But the conditions listed above all come together to create that perfect storm which screams out: Do what it takes to get 1-2 difference makers on Defense - and do it now.

I rest my case your Honor(s)

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I have been a big proponent of trading down /out til next year - for the last many years - and IF Bill trades that is usually a good thing as it means: a) he found a trade partner (sorry that Dead Al can no longer be bait) and B) Bill believes it is worth trading as he doesnt trade just for fun.......oops - he did last year with Andy Reid. Nevertheless - the fact remains the following:

a) Pats in good salary cap shape now and it looks like next couple of years -so no need for big youth movement (did that a few years ago).

b) many of recent 2-3 NEP drafts have gone well and those players are entering their prime (Mayo, Wilfork, Seabass, Gronk, Chung, Hernandez, hopefully McCourtey) and promising up and comers need game playing time to see if can reach potential Ridley, Vereen, Solder, Canon, Ras I Dowling, etc.

c) NEP have gone bargin Vet FA shopping in a big way for depth. last I read over 70 players under contract for training camp

d) we have seen all to many times last few years that our late draft picks just end up on other teams and our practice squad gets raided.

e) new rookie salary cap makes first rounders reasonable priced

f) new system allows only first rounders to get 5 year contracts -everyone else is max 4 years (and not so often that NEP rookies see much playing time which means 4 year contract = only 3 years good production IF without injury)

g) Brady is nearing the end.......he does need a 4th ring to be where he belongs up with Montana / Bradshaw. Seriously, in 10 years WE could be like Dolfans and Bills fans waiting for the next Marino, Kelly, (Brady). We do need to win now to be immortalized like the Steelers / 49'ers / Cowboys of past generations.

h) this years schedule is pretty cushy for another possible 1st round playoff bye.

This 2012 team is stocked for depth and locked and loaded........Patriots ARE really 1-2 difference makers on defense from another Lombardi.

Think of how close we were to SB victory in '07 and '11. In the recent playoff defeats - most were also close (only the Ravens loss was lobsided). Just a play or two the other way WILL make the difference for another trophy.

In the old days, a Willie Mac stop or a Vrabel sack or a Bruschi forced fumble or a Ty Law interception would seal the deal in the 4th quarter. I am not saying to trade the farm for a lottery ticket. But the conditions listed above all come together to create that perfect storm which screams out: Do what it takes to get 1-2 difference makers on Defense - and do it now.

I rest my case your Honor(s)

You mean like a Mayo INT in Washington, Big stop against Dallas, a forced fumble against SD?

Maybe it's time to consider that fewer 4th quarter "seals" are needed due to so many victories come via the blow out.

BTW, why did those "clutch" defenses fail to close out SB XXXVI and XXXVIII when they had the chance and gave up game tying TD's?

 

[thodoks]

Oh look, more internet message board posters who remain convinced of their own brilliance. Why have these savants not yet fired off a resume or two to various NFL front offices?

 

[kudzif]

Oh look, more internet message board posters who remain convinced of their own brilliance. Why have these savants not yet fired off a resume or two to various NFL front offices?

No one claims to be a football savant, but you do not need years of nfl experience to see that having a secondary comprised of the likes of ihegdibo and slater means, and having a worn out Branch as our only other viable receiver means whoever made up the roster fd up.

 

[Rob0729]

Most of the time, armchair GMs are more lucky than good. I include myself in that category.

Back when the Pats had the choice to draft Clay Matthews or trade down, it is easy for an armchair GM to take Matthews. Even though the guy had some serious question marks about him, there is no consequences in making that selection at home. Even if you are wrong, no one remembers.

Unfortunately, for real GMs there are real consequences. The consequences are too great many times to draft the trendy name with serious question marks. Teams with no scouting department like the Bengals do which is why they get great draft grades by Mel Kiper every year but have a horrible success record despite always drafting the hot trendy picks. I remember people falling in love with their picks of trendy players who dropped like Rey Maualuga (a decent player), Andre Caldwell (mediocre at best), Frostee Rucker (can't stay on the field), Odell Thurman (bust who's bad off field reputation was actually understated), etc.

Yes, the people who said take Matthews was right that he was worth the pick, but many of these same people were upset that the Pats traded down for Mayo instead of up for Vernon Gholston or that they took Devin McCourty over Jerry Hughes. Besides trading the Matthews pick did ultimately get the Pats Rob Gronkowski (granted after another trade with one of the picks they got for the Matthews' pick), Julian Edelman, Darius Butler, and Brandon Tate. Most people would at least consider a straight up trade if they had Matthews and they were offered Gronkowski. I think a majority would jump at a trade like this.

 

[Rob0729]

No one claims to be a football savant, but you do not need years of nfl experience to see that having a secondary comprised of the likes of ihegdibo and slater means, and having a worn out Branch as our only other viable receiver means whoever made up the roster fd up.

And yet, the Pats were leading in the Super Bowl with 1:05 left on the clock.

Name another team without holes last year. Green Bay was supposed to be the best team in the NFL and they ended up giving up more yards than the Pats did last year and gave up nearly twice as many points to the Giants in the playoffs than the Pats did. The Ravens had no offense. The 49ers didn't either. The Giants had no depth on defense and almost missed the playoffs because they were a mediocre team during the regular season.

Yes, the safety position was compromised from the start, but Branch had 706 yards and 5 TDs in the 11 games that he was with the Pats in 2010. Most people thought Chad Ochocinco was a great pick up. Before the start of the regular season, everyone thought the Pats' WR position would be great with three legitimate starting WR. It is revisionist history to now say he was stupid to go into the season with the receivers they had.

Besides, the Pats have already significantly upgraded their WR position in free agency. Brandon Lloyd is a potential 1400 WR with Brady throwing to him.

Also, Tom Curran reported that the Pats may trade up for Mark Barron. That is assuming he gets past the Cowboys and/or the Jets.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh look, more internet message board posters who remain convinced of their own brilliance. Why have these savants not yet fired off a resume or two to various NFL front offices?

Excellent point. Belichick's never made a bad football move in his life. Who are we to question him? Ian should just shut down the site, except for the Pro-Patriots blog posts.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, but think about having 16 picks in the seventh round! Yay!

Think value.

The next Troy Brown is out there somewhere.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

You mean like a Mayo INT in Washington, Big stop against Dallas, a forced fumble against SD?

Maybe it's time to consider that fewer 4th quarter "seals" are needed due to so many victories come via the blow out.

BTW, why did those "clutch" defenses fail to close out SB XXXVI and XXXVIII when they had the chance and gave up game tying TD's?

Blow outs are not the norm in the playoffs and are increasingly rare as the playoffs progress. You hear quote after quote from NFL players and coaches saying how close the level of competition is in todays NFL. Gone are the blowouts of SB's in the 70 - 80's, which is why NFL today is so compelling and interesting. Half of playoff teams dont make it to playoffs the following year.

In the Pats glory years we had difference makers on defense (Willie Mac, Brushci, Rodney Harrison, Vrabel, Ty Law, etc) - who made big plays at big moments in big games.

Who on the defense now would you say are the 'difference makers' ?

Look at the SB's the last few years and see the game changing plays on defense: Tracy Porters pick 6 for the Saints, Harrisons 99 yard INT return before halftime (Pitt vs Cardinals). You ask the players and they all say that those type of plays change the outcome of games. Momentum is a powerful force.

Again that begs the question: who do the NEP have on defense the last few years that are difference makers......not just solid starters. I can name 1 maybe 2 (out of 11 starters). We have the salary cap space, we have the draft ammo - we dont need anymore capable starters (ok at Safety we do). NEP HAVE enough special teamers, veteran depth and good starters. We have a franchaise QB - but we need a championship calibre defense (1-2 more playmakers) to 'seal the deal' and put #4 Lombardi on Bradys resume. And it needs to be done sooner than later - before the ship has sailed (Brady and BB).

This is the year NEP should be moving up in the first 4 rounds and not down / out....IMHO. (only exception I would favor would be with one of the first rounders if we could get a 1st next year plus another high pick this year to continue the 'annuity')

 

[Triumph]

No one claims to be a football savant, but you do not need years of nfl experience to see that having a secondary comprised of the likes of ihegdibo and slater means, and having a worn out Branch as our only other viable receiver means whoever made up the roster fd up.

As the Sunshine Boys would say "Go follow another team."

BB has 5 Super Rings and drafted Tom Brady.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Blow outs are not the norm in the playoffs and are increasingly rare as the playoffs progress. You hear quote after quote from NFL players and coaches saying how close the level of competition is in todays NFL. Gone are the blowouts of SB's in the 70 - 80's, which is why NFL today is so compelling and interesting. Half of playoff teams dont make it to playoffs the following year.

In the Pats glory years we had difference makers on defense (Willie Mac, Brushci, Rodney Harrison, Vrabel, Ty Law, etc) - who made big plays at big moments in big games.

Who on the defense now would you say are the 'difference makers' ?

Look at the SB's the last few years and see the game changing plays on defense: Tracy Porters pick 6 for the Saints, Harrisons 99 yard INT return before halftime (Pitt vs Cardinals). You ask the players and they all say that those type of plays change the outcome of games. Momentum is a powerful force.

Again that begs the question: who do the NEP have on defense the last few years that are difference makers......not just solid starters. I can name 1 maybe 2 (out of 11 starters). We have the salary cap space, we have the draft ammo - we dont need anymore capable starters (ok at Safety we do). NEP HAVE enough special teamers, veteran depth and good starters. We have a franchaise QB - but we need a championship calibre defense (1-2 more playmakers) to 'seal the deal' and put #4 Lombardi on Bradys resume. And it needs to be done sooner than later - before the ship has sailed (Brady and BB).

This is the year NEP should be moving up in the first 4 rounds and not down / out....IMHO. (only exception I would favor would be with one of the first rounders if we could get a 1st next year plus another high pick this year to continue the 'annuity')

Way to avoid the real question there, Lars.

Again

Why didn't the "difference makers" stop the opponents in SB XXXVI and XXXVIII?

In SB XXXVI, the "difference makers" blew a 14 point lead 4th quarter lead.

In SB XXXVIII, the "difference makers" could have stopped the Panthers on the last drive and got run over for a game tying TD.

That defense gave up 29 POINTS to Jake 'effin Delhomme.

Show me a game in the dynasty playoffs where the "not difference makers" on offense was turning the ball over 3 or 4 times per game.

You long for a reality that never existed. You do this because you have a deep seated belief in nonsense.

Nonsense can only seem real if you torture reality to conform to that belief.

That's how patsfans.com winds up looking at two playoff losses with 6 of 9 opponents scoring drives already start in FG range and goes effectively -7 in turnovers and........thinks the problem is defense.

Here's reality

Turn the ball over....expect to lose. Go minus 2 in turnovers, you lose over 90% of the time.

If you have the whole second half to put the game away but let the opponent hang around.....expect to lose.

If you have a play to close the game and don't...expect to lose.

Earth to Denmark.....4th quarter comebacks are not rare....like the Douche posting something intelligent.....they happen all the time.

If go give that chance to a QB like Manning who just set a record for the number of 4th qtr comebacks.....expect to lose.

It's as simple as that.

 

[Ivan]

Excellent point. Belichick's never made a bad football move in his life. Who are we to question him? Ian should just shut down the site, except for the Pro-Patriots blog posts.

Another strawman, no-one has claimed Belichick is perfect just that those claiming to know more, like you, are pompous arrogant douches who should stick to Madden. When you claim "the armchair QB's were right," you are talking about yourself and that is obvious, when in truth you are wrong far more than right in your criticisms

 

[Rob0729]

Way to avoid the real question there, Lars.

Again

Why didn't the "difference makers" stop the opponents in SB XXXVI and XXXVIII?

In SB XXXVI, the "difference makers" blew a 14 point lead 4th quarter lead.

In SB XXXVIII, the "difference makers" could have stopped the Panthers on the last drive and got run over for a game tying TD.

That defense gave up 29 POINTS to Jake 'effin Delhomme.

Show me a game in the dynasty playoffs where the "not difference makers" on offense was turning the ball over 3 or 4 times per game.

You long for a reality that never existed. You do this because you have a deep seated belief in nonsense.

Nonsense can only seem real if you torture reality to conform to that belief.

That's how patsfans.com winds up looking at two playoff losses with 6 of 9 opponents scoring drives already start in FG range and goes effectively -7 in turnovers and........thinks the problem is defense.

Here's reality

Turn the ball over....expect to lose. Go minus 2 in turnovers, you lose over 90% of the time.

If you have the whole second half to put the game away but let the opponent hang around.....expect to lose.

If you have a play to close the game and don't...expect to lose.

Earth to Denmark.....4th quarter comebacks are not rare....like the Douche posting something intelligent.....they happen all the time.

If go give that chance to a QB like Manning who just set a record for the number of 4th qtr comebacks.....expect to lose.

It's as simple as that.

Yeah, people forget that in the Super Bowl against Carolina the defense fell apart in the end. Yes, that is because in large part both Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison both went down with injuries. But the Pats lost them at the end of the game while the Pats' this year the Pats were with a far less than 100% Gronk and Mankins the entire game.

In five Super Bowls during the Patriots era, every single one has been won or lost by less than a TD and either team having a chance to win or tie within the final two minute warning. During the winning Super Bowls, some of the luck in the final minutes went the Pats' way (the Panthers' kicker kicking the ball out of bounds when the Pats only needed a field goal to win) and in the losses the luck went the other way (the most improbable helmet catch in league history).

The complainers on this board act like the Pats were this year's Jets (a team that employs the strategy they want the Pats to employ of agressively drafting in higher rounds) by going 8-8 and missing the playoffs when they went into the season with Super Bowl aspirations. This was a team that was leading in the Super Bowl with 1:05 left in the game. Yes, it sucks that they lost, but this still was a team minutes away from winning a Super Bowl with two of their best offensive weapons playing with significant injures that seriously hurt their playing ability.

 

[Rob0729]

Another strawman, no-one has claimed Belichick is perfect just that those claiming to know more, like you, are pompous arrogant douches who should stick to Madden. When you claim "the armchair QB's were right," you are talking about yourself and that is obvious, when in truth you are wrong far more than right in your criticisms

Agreed. Yes, Belichick has made mistakes in the draft, but that doesn't mean that all the complainers arguments of flaws in his overall draft strategy is correct.

The thing is that many of the players that the Pats have drafted when they traded down are the same players they would have drafted if they couldn't find a trade partner. It was reported that if the Pats didn't trade with New Orleans last year, they would have drafted Ras-I Dowling at 28 instead of the second round where they drafted him. Would Dowling be a better pick being drafted in the first round instead of the second round. Based on who was drafted in 2010, the Pats probably would have drafted McCourty whether they traded down or not.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Way to avoid the real question there, Lars.
Wrong - try again , and neither is my name Morten.

Again Why didn't the "difference makers" stop the opponents in SB XXXVI and XXXVIII?

As pointed out Gino and Harrison out at the end. in the other SB, NEP defense didnt have anyone who could cover T. Owens

In SB XXXVI, the "difference makers" blew a 14 point lead 4th quarter lead.
you cant expect -even for a very good defense - to hold the other teams offense down the whole game. This isn't soccer where the play is mostly impromptu - NFL offense always has the advantage as it knows what play it is running and has backup plays the QB can audible to. Especially with the recent rule changes lobsidedly favoring offensive football, the NFL WANTS and is changing the game to promote high scoring games.

In SB XXXVIII, the "difference makers" could have stopped the Panthers on the last drive and got run over for a game tying TD. As before , Gino and Harrison out

That defense gave up 29 POINTS to Jake 'effin Delhomme.
Who had some pretty good WR in Steve Smith, Ricky Proel, and Housh when he was good.

Show me a game in the dynasty playoffs where the "not difference makers" on offense was turning the ball over 3 or 4 times per game. We vikings in Scandinavia are too thick to get what your point is......Maybe I should remove my gold horn hat from my head to help me understand

You long for a reality that never existed. You do this because you have a deep seated belief in nonsense. So the addage 'Defense wins championships is nonsense? Why didnt the offensive powerhouse of the 2000's Indy Colts win only one SB? Won double digit wins basically every year yet Peyton Manning is under .500 in the playoffs - because playoff teams usually have good defenses....though that trend is lessening last few years.

Nonsense can only seem real if you torture reality to conform to that belief.
Where did you steal that from : Confucius ? Or the bathroom wall from your local Dennys in Pitt ?

That's how patsfans.com winds up looking at two playoff losses with 6 of 9 opponents scoring drives already start in FG range and goes effectively -7 in turnovers and........thinks the problem is defense. Defense is also responsible for creating turnovers. Like the 2 pick 6's that changed the course of recent SB's: Saints SB win (Tracy Porter) and Pitt SB win (Harrisons 99 yard pick 6) vs. Arizona

Here's reality

Turn the ball over....expect to lose. Go minus 2 in turnovers, you lose over 90% of the time. Cause again defense is not creating turnovers - if you cant cover and cant put pressure on the opponents QB - how do you expect to cause Interceptions, sacks, bad passes (incompletions) ?

If you have the whole second half to put the game away but let the opponent hang around.....expect to lose. Can't put the game away because the other teams defense is good and put relentless pressure on Brady....which is why in ´07 the top scoring offense of all time scored only 14 points in the SB loss we all prefer to forget.

If you have a play to close the game and don't...expect to lose.

Earth to Denmark.....4th quarter comebacks are not rare...especially when you have a defense that makes every JV QB look like a HOF'er due to no pass rush pressure.like the Douche posting something intelligent.....they happen all the time.

If go give that chance to a QB like Manning who just set a record for the number of 4th qtr comebacks.....expect to lose.

It's as simple as that.

Its also as simple as looking at one of the best offenses in the league and looking at one of the worst defenses - and rationally concluding that this teams defense is the one who needs serious help. And not a 3rd or 4th round draft pick. NEP team defense needs infusion of top level talent (difference makers / game changers / ball hawks- not more depth. That is why the Jets went to 2 AFC championships the last few years -due to defense and running the ball effectively in this 'passing league' which the NFL has become.

Replies in Red above

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Replies in Red above

Sven

So you say I can't expect for a defense (even a good defense) to hold an offense down the entire game because this isn't soccer.

Does that apply or apply just when you want it to apply?

Thank you

Now just apply that nugget of genius to SB XLVI and we COMPLETELY agree.

Also,

San Fransisco had the "best" defense in the NFL in 2011. Yet they created zero turnovers against the Giants in the NFCCG......Do they also suck as a defense because of zero turnovers?

The game tying TD by New York was on a pass with the Giants 3rd and 15. What does that say about the 49er defense?

 

[Ivan]

Agreed. Yes, Belichick has made mistakes in the draft, but that doesn't mean that all the complainers arguments of flaws in his overall draft strategy is correct.

The thing is that many of the players that the Pats have drafted when they traded down are the same players they would have drafted if they couldn't find a trade partner. It was reported that if the Pats didn't trade with New Orleans last year, they would have drafted Ras-I Dowling at 28 instead of the second round where they drafted him. Would Dowling be a better pick being drafted in the first round instead of the second round. Based on who was drafted in 2010, the Pats probably would have drafted McCourty whether they traded down or not.

I agree, and the real problem is that the people com plaining are just really miserable people who will always complain no matter how much success the Patriots have. It would not matter one bit to them if the Patriots had won the super bowl they would still be shrieking and crying about passing on Clay Mathews and drafting Brace and Butler. They are fixated on Belichick passing on their binkies and really believe they know more about NFL talent and would do a better job than Belichick does. It's no different than the a-holes who insist year after year that they know more about running an offense than the OC does, no matter how good the offense is. These people are really just ,miserable, period, and try to inflate their own ego's by trashing coaches who are really good at their jobs because it somehow fills some aspect of their self worth. The patriots could win 10 super bowls in a row amnd the same armchair QB's would be spouting off about all their misses and calling those happy with their success Belichick polesmokers or homers, as they have been doing here for a long long time, in fact triumph said exactly that yesterday.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Sven

So you say I can't expect for a defense (even a good defense) to hold an offense down the entire game because this isn't soccer.

Does that apply or apply just when you want it to apply?

Thank you

Now just apply that nugget of genius to SB XLVI and we COMPLETELY agree.

Also,

San Fransisco had the "best" defense in the NFL in 2011. Yet they created zero turnovers against the Giants in the NFCCG......Do they also suck as a defense because of zero turnovers?

The game tying TD by New York was on a pass with the Giants 3rd and 15. What does that say about the 49er defense?

Sven.....that was a good guess. You know more about Denmark than you are letting on.....

You keep sticking to one or two SB games as a basis of your opinion .....which i am not sure what it is actually because everyone and their grandmother (yours too) knows that this defense has to get better. Which requires more top end talent (not just depth).

And yet to answer any of my questions feks.
Why the top offense of the decade in 2000's Colts were < .500 in playoffs (if defense doesnt really matter)?
Why did GB and Saints: 2 of best offenses last year, lose in the playoffs to Giants and 49'ers.....(give you a hint.....starts with DEFxxxx.)

And finally, who on the Pats defense besides Wilfork do opposing defenses have to game plan for to stop ?

On offense we have Welker, Gronk, Brady, and could also be Lloyd this season. Thats 3 hopefully 4. Defense has one.......(I love Mayo but are other offenses game planning to stop him?) So that gives 3 or 4 on offense to one on defense for this upcoming season - unless we draft 1st round talent on defense this season - and not trade back or out of the first round as some are suggesting.