Bill Barnwell with a great, in-depth analysis of Pats vs. Falcons

[Ross12]

So if the Falcons have suddenly become disruptive on the defensive line because they've started blitzing a lot, then they're going to be totally boned on Sunday. Blitz Brady like that and you're toast.

 

[Ross12]

To beat NE, even this year, you basically have to play the perfect defensive game plan - get consistent pressure while only rushing four guys, drop almost everyone else into coverage, yet still be able to stop the run. That's very hard to do, obviously...

... The Falcons seem to only be getting pressure from the blitz, their coverage guys aren't good, and their run defense is awful... so, I don't see them being able to do a lot... Just sending 5 or 6 guys after Brady over and over is a death sentence.

Further, I think they'll actually hand it off to Blount and Lewis quite a bit too.

 

[drewskie]

Their center Alex Mack looks like he will be impacted by a high ankle sprain/fibula injury, and their RG has been the weak link to begin with.

You can bank on BB making sure the interior OL of ATL being a point of emphasis as one of their weak points.

 

[Ethanga62890]

It was not a high ankle sprain.

 

[DaveEG]

I wonder if it has anything to do with the OLs they were facing. Seattle had one of the worst OLs in the league, and the Patriots didn't really challenge it, choosing to try and contain Russell Wilson. I think Atlanta realized they could get there with their speed, and chose to attack, and was very effective at it.

Barnwell mentions they were getting lots of pressure on Rodgers, but doesn't mention LT Bakhtiari's tender ankle, or the Packers losing 3 starters on the OL during the game. That's not the entire reason, as I think there are lots of numbers out there showing the general improvement of the young Falcons D after their bye week. I think it's a little from column A, a little from column B.

So I don't know if it's about process change or opponent weakness. I'm not even sure they planned it. For all we know, the game plan was to blitz a bit early, then they realized, "Holy ****, they can't block this," then just went with it. But I think this Falcons D is continuing to grow and mature, and it's hard to really tell what we will see on Sunday. But the future looks really bright in Atlanta.

It was certainly unconventional to blitz Rodgers. To do that, you play man. That turns the DBs backs to Rodgers. The theory is he will run wild. That is basically what happened in the 2nd half of week 8. He ran a lot in the 2nd half once we made our adjustment to aggressive man coverage, but all his running only led to 8 points because we sacked him a few times to kill drives.

Atlanta is pretty simple since week 8. They attack like they don't care what happens on both sides of the ball until they get a two score lead. At that point they drop into the traditional Seattle 3 deep and bleed stats while the clock runs. One of the great myths in the NFL is that "Atlanta's prominent defense is a 3 deep zone in the model of the Seattle Seahawks." I don't know why announcers say that or why most fans repeat it. Since week 8, we save that scheme for when we feel really comfortable. We attack a bunch and hope we make as many big plays as we give up. When you start 7 1st and 2nd year guys make it simple. Put them in man and let them use their talent. Right now, they just don't play zone consistently well enough to sit in that coverage in tight games. They miss too many assignments. Quinn is trying to get there, but they are too raw atm.

This change happened about the time Trufant went to IR and we had to use two young CBs.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Good analysis, but I think he forgot one major salient point - the Packers had NO running game whatsoever, and no threat of a running game. They had two pathetic RBs and their line is particularly good at pass blocking and particularly bad at run blocking.

Hence the Falcons could pin their ears back and blitz and their DL didn't have to worry about run possibilities. Try that against the Patriots and Lewis and White will destroy them on screens and dump passes out of the backfield after chipping incoming blitzers. Plus, with a good dose of LaGarrette Blount to soften them up, they'll be tired and won't be able to tee off since they'll have to make damn sure Blount doesn't get into space, where he's a complete beast and can turn an inside handoff into a long TD run.

So I can't see them somehow overcoming this unless we mysteriously abandon the run. I too see a blowout.

 

[patfanken]

Well I know I feel better after reading that article.

But I agree with QM, in that I don't see the Pats holding the Falcons to 17 points, and here's why. While I DO think the Pats can keep the Falcon run game from running wild in the same way they kept the Steeler run game under control. The ONE think I am concerned about are those RB's in the passing game. I am doubly concerned if the officials decide that hitting those RB's are a point of emphisis against the Pats and throw a number of badly timed "illegal contact" flags to keep Falcon drives alive.

Now if they play it fair on both sides of the ball, then we should still be OK, but after watching Goodell's performance this week, I have every belief that he is capable of making the Pats play on an uneven playing field with calls and non-calls. Very similar to the 3 blatant holding calls that were ignored on the helmet catch in 2007. I will be surprised if the Pats don't have to overcome at least 3 first and 20's in this game..

I know that sound more than a little paranoid, but my God, the man didn't stop lying for the full 45 minutes of his presser.....even on stuff non- Patriot related.

 

[slash83]

If Mack's injury is as serious as this makes it sound, holding them to 17 isn't out of the question.

Pool practice report: Mack struggled with left fibula injury; Freeney DNP with calf injury | Atlanta Falcons blog: Atlanta football news

Read somewhere he was doing a lot of coaching up to his backup, take it for what its worth though.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think it's important to note that Barnwell isn't a Pats fan. For example, he thinks the Pats benefitted greatly when Bell went down in the AFCCG, almost sounding like a Steelers excuse maker. He calls it like he sees it.

His analysis on Beasley's 15 sacks was interesting.

Regards,
Chris

Barnwell's a Giants fan, who on the old Grantland NFL podcast admitted a few different times that he hates the Patriots... but respects the hell out of their play design, execution, and personnel management.

 

[Mack Herron]

Lombardi chimes in.

 

[Nunchucks]

If Mack's injury is as serious as this makes it sound, holding them to 17 isn't out of the question.

Pool practice report: Mack struggled with left fibula injury; Freeney DNP with calf injury | Atlanta Falcons blog: Atlanta football news

These players will be shot up and will play well.

 

[TommyD4207]

These players will be shot up and will play well.

Shot only lasts a half.

 

[Nunchucks]

That's the crazy thing about the playoffs.. all a team needs to do is put 3-4 wins together in a row to be Champs.. which is tough to do, but flukey crap happens..

Like in 2006, the Colts defense was a total joke against the run.. it was embarrassing how poor that defense was, but suddenly in the playoffs they started shutting everyone down and also running the ball effectively themselves... its like they completely morphed into a different team for that playoff run, minus that game against the Pats that I don't ever like to talk about lol

The Falcons have been playing like a different team in their last 2 games... It's been atypical of how they've played the 16 games prior... but if they can continue this outlier style play for 1 more week then we'll have a problem..

I'd put my money on them not being able to sustain that insane 3rd down conversion percentage, and I trust that Scar is going to have this offensive line ready to play... He's certainly faced a lot worse.. remember the Panthers defensive line in 2003? That was LOADED with talent, highlighted by Julius Peppers at DE.. the Patriots had a lot of injuries and had guys playing all over the place.. and they managed to hold them off the entire game and not give up a single sack

As long as we don't put up one of those total clunker games that happens 2 times a year, I really like our chances.. but I don't think Ryan and that team are going to go quietly without a vicious fight

That suddenly great run defense returned with the health of one Bob Sanders, super safety

 

[JarOfMayo51]

That suddenly great run defense returned with the health of one Bob Sanders, super safety

Yea that's true, Bob Sanders was an astounding strong safety and made a huge difference for their defense when he was healthy. A short career but he played lights out every time he was on the field

The Falcons certainly don't have anyone of his caliber.. and compared to the Seahawks, Broncos, Bills, Texans, etc... this Falcons D will seem like a 7 on 7 drill

 

[Nunchucks]

Yea that's true, Bob Sanders was an astounding strong safety and made a huge difference for their defense when he was healthy. A short career but he played lights out every time he was on the field

The Falcons certainly don't have anyone of his caliber.. and compared to the Seahawks, Broncos, Bills, Texans, etc... this Falcons D will seem like a 7 on 7 drill

I hope you are right!

 

[Wordsmyth]

I never saw the Giants holding New England to 14 points but it happened.

Apples and lampposts. The Giants D was legit.

The Derpy Birds... not so much.

 

[Ross12]

Imagine the matchup nightmare Gronk would have been against these Falcons. Good lord.

 

[mosi]

Apples and lampposts. The Giants D was legit.

The Derpy Birds... not so much.

I think people forgot how competitive the final regular season game with the Giants was in 2007. The Giants played lights out for 2 1/2 quarters but pooped out at the end.

 

[FourierSeries]

These players will be shot up and will play well.

Like Gronk did in SB46?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Shot only lasts a half.

Good thing for them there's this thing called "halftime". Which at the Superbowl is over twice as long as it usually is.