Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BaconGrundleCandy, May 30, 2019.
Futures: Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa | Football Outsiders
2020 NFL Scouting Combine winners/losers: QBs
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia
2020 NFL Scouting Combine winners/losers: Justin Herbert stars
Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma: Whiteboard Session
Guys I really like
Justin Herbert - The arm and arm mechanics make me believe something special could be here.
His lower body mechanics are really consistent, but he played great at the Senior Bowl. He showed real elusiveness. I think he'd really benefit from not having to play for a year too, since he needs to adapt to the NFL game. This is my top QB and the only one I grade in the top 15 of the draft.
Guys I Sort of Like
Jordan Love - Solid arm. Nothing like Mahomes (I don't get the comparison). Solid athleticism. Solid accuracy. Slowish and mechanical in dropbacks and in his release. Can he be a decent QB? Sure. Will be live up to a 1st round billet, especially a top 10 billet? Hell no.
Late Round Flyers
Cole McDonald - He's some mix between Drew Lock and Justin Herbert, but with less hype. I love his athleticism (best footwork in the pocket in this draft). I really like his arm because it's whippy and displays a ton of touch. I don't like that he drops the release to the side so much, but the most important thing is that he completes throws. He should sit at least one year while he learns an NFL offense. The potential is here. Can he adjust his throwing mechanics to improve his accuracy?
Brian Lewerke - Live arm, good footwork. Accuracy can be on point. Had some tough times in college, but I compared him to Aaron Rodgers as a sophomore. He needs to stop relying on his arm so much, and he needs a good coach in the NFL. Is his body toast? He couldn't even fully sprint for his 40 at the combine.
Steve Montez - Strong arm. Too upright. Average accuracy at best. He seems like a career backup, but he doesn't have the red flags that other guys have. You might be able to take him late, let him develop. He compares to Mason Rudolph, albeit with a stronger arm.
Guys I didn't like
Joe Burrow - College offense ran by great offensive mind, hid his weaknesses. Can't make all the throws at an elite level. If I was able to take him in the later half of the first, I'd like him. I just think he'll be a bust for a 1st overall guy. He's not going to carry a team.
Tua Tagovailoa - Tua is basically a left-handed Jake Fromm with slightly better athleticism. I think several of these QBs will probably bust, but Tua is chief among them. Pop gun arm. Small. Barely enough athleticism to escape the pocket at the NFL level. Oh, and he just broke his hip.
Jalen Hurts - I really want to like him. Good character, athleticism, good lower body mechanics. His arm is below average with a long windup. He doesn't challenges an NFL defense.
Jacob Eason - Super slow. Bad mechanics on deep ball. Looks great on short to medium range passes. Lots of character questions. Will probably never put it together.
Jake Fromm - Again, pop gun arm, avg mobility. He can't challenge an NFL defense.
The Others (not a fan, will not explain why for every one)
Cole McDonald is QB I’d take a flier on in the fourth or fifth I like a lot what I see.
Don’t know why he isn’t as highly regarded.
And Anthony Gordon I like as well would be thrilled with a QB room of Stidham Mariota and one of those two.
I still don't know about Lewerke man. I think he fits the EP but he's so inconsistent everywhere. Idk some of the same mistakes keep popping up year after year.
Doesn't know how to play traffic cop and let the bodies fly by him, slide or have a great plan in general off script?
Footwork is a concern. +Arm talent and he does have the ability to work within the structure of an offense.
Cole has issues reading mof/underneath. Throwing guys open and doesn't show the anticipation I need to see. He's improved his balance/footwork & delivery from years past, +arm talent and is a threat to run. Idk how well he's do here though. Again timing and anticipation weren't his strengths imo.
Love is a curious case. He goes to OK, FL, TT next year. He probably tears it up. He needs work though. MOF, staring down defenders, hero ball. He needs a mentor. Someone that can shoot straight with him and someone Love respects. He's young enough to sit. Getting picked eaely isn't good for him but I really like him.
I wanted more from Herbert. He played with decent enough weapons. A great OL and just never established himself enough but like Love he's a toolsy prospect. I see a bit of Daniel Jones there.
I've always liked Hurts more than most. He's limited. Needs a lot around him but he's an unbelievable runner. Winner. Leader. Players love playing with a guy like him that leaves it all out there but is always getting questioned. Sometimes rightfully so but I always thought a bit too much.
Burrow did so much off-script out of broken down plays its not funny. The ability to stay calm, move, the footwork and awareness to make the right slide, step. The ability to time his throw on the run. The touch, placement and accuracy? Idk he was outstanding. Sure he had a lot of help but he's going to the NFL. Not XFL. He'll have the best of the best around him. I hate that it's Cinci but Burrow was just incredible this year from start to finish. He stepped it up when needed. Always answered the call. Idk he was really good.
Tua is also a fantastic prospect. I made a comment weeks ago about if you take away Tua's mobility he's not that far off from Fromm. Probably a mistake but in reality he's still the better prospect. If he's healthy you bet on him. He might not be here for a long time but it'll be a good time.
I thought Eason and Love were awful mof and at least one article confirmed that. Just really suspect. I'm betting on Love though.
I like Luton, Gordon, Morgon and Stanley in the mid-late rounds
I'd stay far away from Gordon. You have to start from square one in teaching him how to be a QB, and he doesn't offer anything special at the end of the tunnel. His arm is not even NFL average, in my opinion.
I think we're not too far off on our assessments. I would agree to disagree in a few places, that's all.
I think the safest prospects are Burrow and Hurts. That doesn't mean I love either as a future star, but they will be at least okay. Then, of course, the NFL hype machine will see a 23 year old QB playing okay and crown them as a top 10 guy or whatever, but seeing that ahead for some of these guys, I'm still calling it now that they aren't *that* good, in that they aren't going to dominate a defense.
Also, if you take away the huge injury risk with Tua, I still like him some. I just would certainly not crown him as an elite prospect, much like no one takes Fromm seriously at this point.
What do you think of McDonald?
This is what I said up above:
I can't really contest what BGC said about him. For one, I haven't tried to gauge his ability to read a field. For two, that Hawaii offense is totally crazy and not something you can easily project any QB from. One upon a time, I remember liking Colt Brennan when he came out. However, McDonald definitely has better tools and might have his head on straighter too.
McDonald actually might be the closest comp to Mahomes in the draft, now that I think about it. I'm not saying he has Mahomes' arm; I'm just saying that he is experienced in the art of the spread attack and hero ball, and his raw skills impress me more than the other options (Love, Herbert, etc). If you can harness that talent and also guide him into being a professional QB, you might have something. The key is where is mind is at. Mahomes has a photographic memory. What does McDonald have? He talks like he's relatively straight edge, which is a good sign. Island life doesn't always breed a love for the game though.
Just found McDonald's combine tape. His workout was REALLY bad. He missed almost every throw. This is bad, but also good. The bad side is that it is evidence that he's a long-short project. The good side is that I've already seen him display above average arm talent, and with some fixes to his throwing mechanics, his accuracy could increase dramatically (more than just regular practice would provide).
One other thing about Tua... it's very possible that at the end of the day, he's played with 4 first round WRs at once, along with two 1st round RBs, and two first round OTs. I think we cannot discount the level of surrounding talent he's had while he's put up these great numbers. It's unprecedented.
Just found the entire
Made some small changes here.
- Watched Herbert in the Senior Bowl. It's basically the only tape of him in a pro style offense. He looks a lot better here than he did at Oregon and than he did at the combine. Bold statement (to some): he will have a better career than Burrow and Tua. If he slips a bit, the Pats might be able to afford to move up and snag him?
- Moved Hurts down. Not enough arm talent to be an NFL QB. At least not a starter. If he's tough and team-first, maybe he can fill in as Taysom Hill type, as played out as that idea is for every single mobile QB.
- Moved McDonald and Lewerke to 'late round flyer' status. Both have serious enough consistency issues that I can't place too much value there. I wonder why McDonald hasn't learned to throw over the top yet and why Lewerke can't even run full speed right now.
- Moved Montez up to 'late round flyer' status as a value pick. He's probably somewhere between Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett, but I'm not in those meeting rooms. He might be a decent prospect. I see tools and I see mechanics are rough around the edges but more sound than some of the flashier aforementioned players. I see inconsistency. I see a four year starter. He's worth a look.
Best athlete: Cole McDonald
Best arm: Justin Herbert
Best mechanics: Brian Lewerke
Justin Herbert - Top 15
Joe Burrow - Late 1st
Jordan Love - Late 1st
Tua Tagovailoa - 2nd
Jacob Eason - 3rd
Cole McDonald - 5th
Brian Lewerke - 5th
Steve Montez - 5th
Jalen Hurts - 6th
Jake Luton - 6th
Nate Stanley - 7th
Jake Fromm - 7th
James Morgan - UDFA
Kelly Bryant - UDFA
Shea Patterson - UDFA
Kevin Davidson - UDFA
Anthony Gordon - UDFA
hurts and Gordon do not have the strongest arms. But I can not see tua as a second rounder.
That's just my personal grade, not where I'd expect him to actually go. It's also extremely subjective and definitely not a scientific process for arriving at grades.
QB KlassRoom: Quantifying Quarterbacks: Jacob Eason - Fantasy Columns
2020 NFL Draft: Player comps for PFF's top quarterbacks | College Football and NFL Draft | PFF
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU- Scouting Report
SIS Football Rookie Handbook Preview: Joe Burrow | Sharp Football
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama- Scouting Report
SIS Rookie Football Handbook Preview: Tua Tagovailoa | Sharp Football
My biggest issue with Hurts is that he runs too much, and I'm not sure BB is willing to spend a high draft pick on a QB who's going to pull the ball down 15+ times a game.
If hurts first read is covered, then he looks to run,
also kept in mind, his arm is substandard.
Not saying you're wrong, but this certainly seems to be an outlier opinion as far as the scouting reports I've read on Hurts...
NFL Draft & Combine Profile - Jalen Hurts | NFL.com
"Able to step and drive with adequate velocity"
The Draft Network
"Arm Strength - He's got plenty of juice, regardless of whether he's stressed in the pocket and forced to push one out with all arm or able to step and stride into his pass Capable of pushing the ball downfield with comfort and isn't prone to hanging the ball in the air when going vertical."
"Very good overall arm strength, evidenced when throwing 8 and 9 routes and generates very good power when the ball leaves his hands."
"Has the throwing power and arm strength to make any throw."
2020 NFL draft: Jalen Hurts scouting report
"He has good velocity behind his throws and can fit his passes into tight windows."
Separate names with a comma.