Belichick’s Trade Value.

[ctpatsfan77]

View attachment 54770

This was almost certainly not going to happen.

 

[XLIX]

Bottom line is you can’t trade him unless he agrees to it.

Right. But he can leave unless the Patriots agree to it. Officially he can't even talk to anyone unless the Patriots agree to it. So his hand isn't as strong as you say it is. The Patriots have some say in the matter.

 

[XLIX]

Why would the Chargers give a 1st or 2nd?

If they want Bill and he agrees they either:

BZZZZZZZZZT. Sorry, they can't talk to Bill without New England's permission. Try again.

PLEASE NOTE: I am assuming for the sake of argument that the reports regarding Bill's contract are accurate. If instead this is the final year of his contract then obviously Bill can do whatever he wants after the season.

 

[Boomer B]

BZZZZZZZZZT. Sorry, they can't talk to Bill without New England's permission. Try again.

PLEASE NOTE: I am assuming for the sake of argument that the reports regarding Bill's contract are accurate. If instead this is the final year of his contract then obviously Bill can do whatever he wants after the season.
.

This whole scenario is based on Kraft wanting to get rid of Bill.

But, if you don’t think Bill or interested teams won’t be back channeling before his official release you’re being naive.

 

[Boomer B]

Right. But he can leave unless the Patriots agree to it. Officially he can't even talk to anyone unless the Patriots agree to it. So his hand isn't as strong as you say it is. The Patriots have some say in the matter.

If Kraft wants to keep him then of course Bill can’t leave unless Kraft agrees. But that’s not the scenario we are talking about. This discussion is all based on Kraft wanting to get rid of Bill.

 

[XLIX]

This whole scenario is based on Kraft wanting to get rid of Bill.

But, if you don’t think Bill or interested teams won’t be back channeling before his official release you’re being naive.

They can back channel all they want but nobody is going to talk turkey without NE's permission.

But even if Kraft wants to get rid of Bill, that doesn't mean Bill "holds all the cards". 26 years ago everyone knew the Patriots were getting rid of Parcells, but they still negotiated a first rounder for him.

 

[Love The Drake]

They can back channel all they want but nobody is going to talk turkey without NE's permission.

But even if Kraft wants to get rid of Bill, that doesn't mean Bill "holds all the cards". 26 years ago everyone knew the Patriots were getting rid of Parcells, but they still negotiated a first rounder for him.

Parcells didn’t have the worst 3 years of his head coaching career though I will say.

 

[Boomer B]

They can back channel all they want but nobody is going to talk turkey without NE's permission.

But even if Kraft wants to get rid of Bill, that doesn't mean Bill "holds all the cards". 26 years ago everyone knew the Patriots were getting rid of Parcells, but they still negotiated a first rounder for him.

Completely different scenario. Parcells wanted out and was negotiating with the Jets before he left.

 

[XLIX]

Completely different scenario. Parcells wanted out and was negotiating with the Jets before he left.

Wait a second…. You said:

“if you don’t think Bill or interested teams won’t be back channeling before his official release you’re being naive.”

So, by your own words, Belichick will be negotiating with other teams. In fact, you called it naive to believe Belichick wouldn’t be negotiating with other teams.

So please tell us all how this is a “completely different scenario”.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Very odd that Bob Kraft was willing to give up a 1st round pick so easily for Belichick back in 2000.

I think Parcells was being a prick and was making Bill "untradeable", yet was surprised Bob accepted the asking price.

 

[Boomer B]

Wait a second…. You said:

“if you don’t think Bill or interested teams won’t be back channeling before his official release you’re being naive.”

So, by your own words, Belichick will be negotiating with other teams. In fact, you called it naive to believe Belichick wouldn’t be negotiating with other teams.

So please tell us all how this is a “completely different scenario”.

It’s simple:

A) Parcells wanted out, not Kraft wanting him gone

B) Belichick not wanting out, but Kraft wanting to let him go

In A Kraft holds the cards as he has Parcells under contract and can demand the high pick to let him out of it

In B Kraft wants Bill gone. Bill holds the cards as Kraft will either have to fire him and owe him the rest of his contract or if he wants compensation if Bill ends up at another team he has to hold onto Bill and not implement his new GM/Coach until a deal is done which will hurt the Pats if it drags on.

Completely different scenarios

 

[Jim Beankie]

Random tidbit: Assuming I'm doing this correctly (taking into account ties), if BB loses his next 4 games, and AReid wins his next 4 games, the latter will pass BB in Win Loss % for the regular season. Too lazy to include playoffs, which is a tougher climb.

 

[ralmat55]

It’s simple:

A) Parcells wanted out, not Kraft wanting him gone

B) Belichick not wanting out, but Kraft wanting to let him go

In A Kraft holds the cards as he has Parcells under contract and can demand the high pick to let him out of it

In B Kraft wants Bill gone. Bill holds the cards as Kraft will either have to fire him and owe him the rest of his contract or if he wants compensation if Bill ends up at another team he has to hold onto Bill and not implement his new GM/Coach until a deal is done which will hurt the Pats if it drags on.

Completely different scenarios

Your leverage equation is missing a couple of variables - Bill’s desire (72 year olds chasing a wins record can’t afford a year off) to coach somewhere next season and, with Bill’s replacement(s) probably already in house (Mayo, Wolf?), time would be on the Patriots’ side in this situation.

They could just hold off relieving Belichick of his duties until the team interested in hiring Belichick has to decide to move on to their backup candidate or give up what it takes to get Belichick. This is really what happened to Kraft in 2000. He had to move on Belichick or hire Dom Capers before someone else did.

Also, swallowing Belichick‘a 2024 salary isn’t the impediment you think it is. It’s a sunk expense as the Krafts have to pay it whether Bill coaches the Pats or not in 2024. The real cost to the Pats would be the modest first time GM and HC salaries they’d have to pay Bill’s replacement(s) if they fired Bill.

I don’t expect the Pats to reap a huge windfall of compensation either. But, it’s not because Bill is holding all the cards as you seem to believe but because the interest might not be there. But, if some team wants him, the Patriots hold the advantage of time which will bring them some compensation I believe.

 

[Boomer B]

Your leverage equation is missing a couple of variables - Bill’s desire (72 year olds chasing a wins record can’t afford a year off) to coach somewhere next season and, with Bill’s replacement(s) probably already in house (Mayo, Wolf?), time would be on the Patriots’ side in this situation.

They could just hold off relieving Belichick of his duties until the team interested in hiring Belichick has to decide to move on to their backup candidate or give up what it takes to get Belichick. This is really what happened to Kraft in 2000. He had to move on Belichick or hire Dom Capers before someone else did.

Also, swallowing Belichick‘a 2024 salary isn’t the impediment you think it is. It’s a sunk expense as the Krafts have to pay it whether Bill coaches the Pats or not in 2024. The real cost to the Pats would be the modest first time GM and HC salaries they’d have to pay Bill’s replacement(s) if they fired Bill.

I don’t expect the Pats to reap a huge windfall of compensation either. But, it’s not because Bill is holding all the cards as you seem to believe but because the interest might not be there. But, if some team wants him, the Patriots hold the advantage of time which will bring them some compensation I believe.

I hear you, but even if it’s Mayo we are still likely looking outside the organization for GM/scouting which needs to be in place ASAP after the season to prepare for the draft.

I don’t think this will drag on. I think Kraft either outright lets Bill go after the season or a deal will happen quickly for a 3rd or 4th rounder. Kraft will want this nightmare of a season to be over and begin the new era right away.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Right. But he can leave unless the Patriots agree to it. Officially he can't even talk to anyone unless the Patriots agree to it. So his hand isn't as strong as you say it is. The Patriots have some say in the matter.

If he leaves, then, according to most NFL coaching contracts, (A) he doesn't get paid, and (B) the Patriots still own his rights to coach in the NFL.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Completely different scenario. Parcells wanted out and was negotiating with the Jets before he left.

And, as a reminder, the Patriots got a first-round pick and more when Parcells left.

 

[Boomer B]

And, as a reminder, the Patriots got a first-round pick and more when Parcells left.

Exactly what I meant. Kraft held the cards when that went down.

 

[XLIX]

It’s simple:

A) Parcells wanted out, not Kraft wanting him gone

B) Belichick not wanting out, but Kraft wanting to let him go

In A Kraft holds the cards as he has Parcells under contract and can demand the high pick to let him out of it

In B Kraft wants Bill gone. Bill holds the cards as Kraft will either have to fire him and owe him the rest of his contract or if he wants compensation if Bill ends up at another team he has to hold onto Bill and not implement his new GM/Coach until a deal is done which will hurt the Pats if it drags on.

Completely different scenarios

No. Just no. First of all, we don't have the first clue what Kraft wants or what Bill wants or what Bill's contract says. That aside, the scenarios are very similar in that in each case, everyone believed that the coach had reached the end of the road in New England. You yourself admitted that there will be "back channeling" going on. That implies Bill wants to leave. Why would he "back channel" if he wanted to stay?

If he leaves, then, according to most NFL coaching contracts, (A) he doesn't get paid, and (B) the Patriots still own his rights to coach in the NFL.

I made a typo. I meant to say "he can't leave unless the Patriots agree to it."

 

[Boomer B]

No. Just no. First of all, we don't have the first clue what Kraft wants or what Bill wants or what Bill's contract says. That aside, the scenarios are very similar in that in each case, everyone believed that the coach had reached the end of the road in New England. You yourself admitted that there will be "back channeling" going on. That implies Bill wants to leave. Why would he "back channel" if he wanted to stay?

I made a typo. I meant to say "he can't leave unless the Patriots agree to it."

This whole scenario is based on Kraft wanting to move on from Bill. There has been 0 reports that Bill wants to leave.

When I said Bill could be back channeling it’s because he’s not dumb. He hears what’s being said on tv, radio, print… the wolves are at the door and he knows there’s a good chance he could be shown the door, so he’s preparing his next move if Kraft truly does want to move on.

 

[XLIX]

This whole scenario is based on Kraft wanting to move on from Bill. There has been 0 reports that Bill wants to leave.

Yes, because Belichick is so open with the media, and makes sure they are always kept fully apprised of his inner thinking and motivation.

Like I said: We don't have the first clue what Kraft wants or what Bill wants or what Bill's contract says. If they decide to part ways, each side will have a degree of leverage.