Bedard: Patriots down on Winovich, Jennings

[One-If-By-Sea]

It’s a figure of speech get a grip. They traded up to draft a guy never even sniffed the roster. Maybe you’re content throwing away picks but that’s why we are where we are.

Dude not every pick sniffs the roster. "Throwing away picks" because a 5th rounder is on the practice squad is a huge exaggeration. We are where we are because a 5th round pick is on the practice squad competing for a roster spot? Really. You generalize from a 5th rounder to "That's why we are where we are."? Please, get a grip and stop the hysteria.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

On third and 7 ? Sure.

On third and 3 ? Nope. Nope. No way.

Don't really want to see the other edge players on third and short as well they can't hold their ground on early down so why on third? Especially when it is maybe a pass play. I would line up depending on expected pass or run..of course it's not that simple with the RPO and PA stuff..

 

[luuked]

Don't really want to see the other edge players on third and short as well they can't hold their ground on early down so why on third? Especially when it is maybe a pass play. I would line up depending on expected pass or run..of course it's not that simple with the RPO and PA stuff..

You are missing the point.

Winovich is just too weak to hold up as an edge player againt the run. And if you can't set the edge in a BB defense you might as well not play. Simon was an 100% improvement on Winovich when it comes to edge setting. That's how bad Wino is against the run where he just lacks about 20lbs of mass.

 

[203Pat]

Dude not every pick sniffs the roster. "Throwing away picks" because a 5th rounder is on the practice squad is a huge exaggeration. We are where we are because a 5th round pick is on the practice squad competing for a roster spot? Really. You generalize from a 5th rounder to "That's why we are where we are."? Please, get a grip and stop the hysteria.

Yes I know everything they do is perfect. Picks are meaningless blah blah blah. We currently had Cowart as a starter all year, Bentley as a starter all year, Jake Bailey as our starting punter, Joe Cardona as our starting long snapper, Marcus Cannon would have been a starter in all likelihood. All 5th round picks so don't tell me spending a 5th round pick on a guy who never even made the team is fine.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

You are missing the point.

Winovich is just too weak to hold up as an edge player againt the run. And if you can't set the edge in a BB defense you might as well not play. Simon was an 100% improvement on Winovich when it comes to edge setting. That's how bad Wino is against the run where he just lacks about 20lbs of mass.

I agree with the most Part but wasn't wino the guy who was our Best edge defender against the run during the first few weeks before his playing time declined? I remember statistics in the wino appreciation thread where he was succesfull to set the edge against the run and pass. He is sometimes out of Position and probably Lacks also consistency to do his Job to Set the edge instead of going on the pass rush. I hope he can add some weight and become an every down starter.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Yes I know everything they do is perfect. Picks are meaningless blah blah blah. We currently had Cowart as a starter all year, Bentley as a starter all year, Jake Bailey as our starting punter, Joe Cardona as our starting long snapper, Marcus Cannon would have been a starter in all likelihood. All 5th round picks so don't tell me spending a 5th round pick on a guy who never even made the team is fine.

Glad you are in love with 5th round picks. Slater was a 5th round pick, Brady was a 6th, Edelman was a 7th. So that means every pick has to hit or we are left drawing the conclusion that 5th round misses = "that means we are where we are?". I agree with your points - completely disagree with your generalization and overreaction.

Only 28.2 percent of players drafted in Rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 were retained at the end of their first contract—which is a number that is largely supported by an abundance of fourth-round picks re-upping. Round 5, 6 and 7 made up 16.7 percent of the 28.2 percent total. Bleacher Report

I Googled to find the 5th round draft pick hit rate. About 17% or less make it to a second contract, 1 in 6. You listed five 5th round picks (you missed Slater so that is six) that should make it to a second contract. If, on average, one out of six 5th round picks make it to a second contract, then the Pats can miss on the next 20+ drafts if they are average at drafting in the 5th round. In case you are not a math guy, 36 / 6 = 1 in 6, so 36 - 6 = 30 picks that miss if 6 are successful to = 1 in 6. So the Pats might have missed once in 2020 with the kicker. Get used to it. They can miss for the next 30 years and still be average picking in the 5th round. The 2020 kicker in the 5th round has NOTHING to do with why "we are where we are".

 

[203Pat]

Glad you are in love with 5th round picks. Slater was a 5th round pick, Brady was a 6th, Edelman was a 7th. So that means every pick has to hit or we are left drawing the conclusion that 5th round misses = "that means we are where we are?". I agree with your points - completely disagree with your generalization and overreaction.

Only 28.2 percent of players drafted in Rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 were retained at the end of their first contract—which is a number that is largely supported by an abundance of fourth-round picks re-upping. Round 5, 6 and 7 made up 16.7 percent of the 28.2 percent total. Bleacher Report

I Googled to find the 5th round draft pick hit rate. About 17% or less make it to a second contract, 1 in 6. You listed 5 fifth round picks (you missed Slater so that is 6) that should make it to a second contract. If, on average, one out of six 5th round picks make it to a second contract, than the Pats can miss on the next 20+ drafts if they are average at drafting in the 5th round. In case you are not a math guy, 36 / 6 = 1 in 6, so 36 - 6 = 30 picks that miss if 6 are successful to = 1 in 6. So the Pats might have missed once in 2020 with the kicker. Get used to it. They can miss for the next 30 years and still be average picking in the 5th round. The 2020 kicker in the 5th round has NOTHING to do with why "we are where we are".

What generalization? Bad drafting is why we don't have Brady anymore. Bad drafting is why we had no cap space before the opt outs. Bad drafting is why we have no depth. Bad drafting is why we may have the worst roster from top to bottom in the league.

Not every pick needs to be a home run but I don't know why we need to get cute and draft the kicker no one has heard of when we have our pick of the litter.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yes I know everything they do is perfect. Picks are meaningless blah blah blah. We currently had Cowart as a starter all year, Bentley as a starter all year, Jake Bailey as our starting punter, Joe Cardona as our starting long snapper, Marcus Cannon would have been a starter in all likelihood. All 5th round picks so don't tell me spending a 5th round pick on a guy who never even made the team is fine.

He made the team and is still on the team. He got beat out by Nick Folk, who hit 26 of 28 FGs this year (and will probably price out next year) for a 53-man roster that only keeps one placekicker.

This year, he'll probably compete with Ricky Aguyao, a THIRD ROUND pick and one of, if not the, most accurate kickers in college history, for that one spot.

Unless Folk comes back cheaply enough for BB, which I doubt.

Last year's draft gave them Uche and Dugger, Onwenu and Herron, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keene, all of whom played more than most rookies ever do with the Pats. At least four - the first four I named, will be here for a while, contributing. The next three? Who knows? But I wouldn't bet against them. Even Maluia played on Special Teams. Hard to argue with that draft.

I didn't like the Rohrwhatever pick - I thought there were better kickers sitting there (loved Blankenship), but kicking certainly wasn't a weakness on the team this year.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

He made the team and is still on the team. He got beat out by Nick Folk, who hit 26 of 28 FGs this year (and will probably price out next year) for a 53-man roster that only keeps one placekicker.

This year, he'll probably compete with Ricky Aguyao, a THIRD ROUND pick and one of, if not the, most accurate kickers in college history, for that one spot.

Unless Folk comes back cheaply enough for BB, which I doubt.

Last year's draft gave them Uche and Dugger, Onwenu and Herron, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keene, all of whom played more than most rookies ever do with the Pats. At least four - the first four I named, will be here for a while, contributing. The next three? Who knows? But I wouldn't bet against them. Even Maluia played on Special Teams. Hard to argue with that draft.

I didn't like the Rohrwhatever pick - I thought there were better kickers sitting there (loved Blankenship), but kicking certainly wasn't a weakness on the team this year.

He showed nothing in the NFL to be a starting Kicker so far. I dont see any reason to spent a second round pick on a Kicker. I think that is a joke from the bucs.
Agree with the rest esp the last part

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

What generalization? Bad drafting is why we don't have Brady anymore. Bad drafting is why we had no cap space before the opt outs. Bad drafting is why we have no depth. Bad drafting is why we may have the worst roster from top to bottom in the league.

Not every pick needs to be a home run but I don't know why we need to get cute and draft the kicker no one has heard of when we have our pick of the litter.

We had no cap space because we put the tag on Thuney and BB wanted to clear the cap space and start again in 2021. Swallow the cod liver oil and get healthy. You might hate it, but it was the right decision. Sit back and watch this team transform over the next 24 months. Enjoy the ride - don't hate on it.

"Worst roster in the league top to bottom because we can not draft, and last year's 5th round pick indicates that". Then you say. "What generalization"? Too funny.

Sure you can second guess the pick. That is OK. Maybe they got cute - being cute as worked out for them as they wrote in your last post having hit on 6 players which is an OUTSTANDING hit rate in the 5th round. So maybe being cute didn't work in this case but overall it works? Maybe? In one post you note how good the Pats are picking in the 5th round, and in the next post you say they got cute in the 5th round. Since they have hit on prospects in the 5th round at a much higher rate then the average, maybe they were not being cute by following their previously successful 5th round formula? If something works way above average, maybe we should stick with it even though it misses once or twice or thrice, and looks a bit cute?

My point is that a miss in the 5th round is exactly that - a miss in the 5th round. Nothing more. Surely not an indicator of overall drafting ineptitude. If you want to argue that the Pats should stop being cute in the 2nd round with their CB picks and they should change their 2nd round strategy, I think you would have a much stronger argument . Let's hope they have changed already as indicated in the 2020 draft - I liked the Dugger and Uche picks and still like them.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Chase Winovich run stop percentage: 5.9% (68th out of 121)
John Simon run stop percentage: 3.4% (109th out of 121)
Shilique Calhoun run stop percentage: 1.9%

Chase Winovich 47 pressures with 5.5 sacks
John Simon 12 pressures with 2 sacks
Shilique Calhoun 9 pressures with 2 sacks


Could Winovich improve vs. the run? sure. Was he by far and away the best pass rusher on the team? 100%.

Also it's fiction that Simon & Calhoun were good options on the EDGE against the run.

 

[203Pat]

He made the team and is still on the team. He got beat out by Nick Folk, who hit 26 of 28 FGs this year (and will probably price out next year) for a 53-man roster that only keeps one placekicker.

This year, he'll probably compete with Ricky Aguyao, a THIRD ROUND pick and one of, if not the, most accurate kickers in college history, for that one spot.

Unless Folk comes back cheaply enough for BB, which I doubt.

Last year's draft gave them Uche and Dugger, Onwenu and Herron, Jennings, Asiasi, and Keene, all of whom played more than most rookies ever do with the Pats. At least four - the first four I named, will be here for a while, contributing. The next three? Who knows? But I wouldn't bet against them. Even Maluia played on Special Teams. Hard to argue with that draft.

I didn't like the Rohrwhatever pick - I thought there were better kickers sitting there (loved Blankenship), but kicking certainly wasn't a weakness on the team this year.

He never made the roster he made the practice squad but honestly I didn't think anyone would take offense to my post but here we are.

 

[203Pat]

We had no cap space because we put the tag on Thuney and BB wanted to clear the cap space and start again in 2021. Swallow the cod liver oil and get healthy. You might hate it, but it was the right decision. Sit back and watch this team transform over the next 24 months. Enjoy the ride - don't hate on it.

"Worst roster in the league top to bottom because we can not draft, and last year's 5th round pick indicates that". Then you say. "What generalization"? Too funny.

Sure you can second guess the pick. That is OK. Maybe they got cute - being cute as worked out for them as they wrote in your last post having hit on 6 players which is an OUTSTANDING hit rate in the 5th round. So maybe being cute didn't work in this case but overall it works? Maybe? In one post you note how good the Pats are picking in the 5th round, and in the next post you say they got cute in the 5th round. Since they have hit on prospects in the 5th round at a much higher rate then the average, maybe they were not being cute by following their previously successful 5th round formula? If something works way above average, maybe we should stick with it even though it misses once or twice or thrice, and looks a bit cute?

My point is that a miss in the 5th round is exactly that - a miss in the 5th round. Nothing more. Surely not an indicator of overall drafting ineptitude. If you want to argue that the Pats should stop being cute in the 2nd round with their CB picks and they should change their 2nd round strategy, I think you would have a much stronger argument . Let's hope they have changed already as indicated in the 2020 draft - I liked the Dugger and Uche picks and still like them.

We are in cap trouble because Bill has drafted poorly. When you whiff on Aaron Dobson and N'Keal Harry you have to pay Brandon Lafell and Chris Hogan and trade for Sanu and sign AB. Instead of having Geneo Grissom slide into Jamie Collins' role you have to trade for, then pay Kyle Van Noy. You should have had cheap young talent but you had to pay people.

For the third time it isn't about a single 5th round pick. It is about the recent drafting as whole.

 

[luuked]

Chase Winovich run stop percentage: 5.9% (68th out of 121)
John Simon run stop percentage: 3.4% (109th out of 121)
Shilique Calhoun run stop percentage: 1.9%

Chase Winovich 47 pressures with 5.5 sacks
John Simon 12 pressures with 2 sacks
Shilique Calhoun 9 pressures with 2 sacks


Could Winovich improve vs. the run? sure. Was he by far and away the best pass rusher on the team? 100%.

Also it's fiction that Simon & Calhoun were good options on the EDGE against the run.

It is not fiction at all. All you need to take a look at are his snap counts.

Simon is a substantially better EDGE option against the run than Winovich. In both physical size and also dependability as Winovich often enough took the cheese or tried to wrap inside and gave up the EDGE. That is what got him semi benched during the season.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Chase Winovich run stop percentage: 5.9% (68th out of 121)
John Simon run stop percentage: 3.4% (109th out of 121)
Shilique Calhoun run stop percentage: 1.9%

Chase Winovich 47 pressures with 5.5 sacks
John Simon 12 pressures with 2 sacks
Shilique Calhoun 9 pressures with 2 sacks


Could Winovich improve vs. the run? sure. Was he by far and away the best pass rusher on the team? 100%.

Also it's fiction that Simon & Calhoun were good options on the EDGE against the run.

Calhoun is straight garbage. Cut him. Simon is over the hill. Have Anfernee Jennings take Simon's spot on the edge and then draft our 1st rounder at DE or DT.

.

 

[captain stone]

It amazes me that anyone could be so emotionally attached to a 5th round pick that it could still "kill them" a year later. It is a fecking 5th rounder.

What a willfully ignorant statement.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Agreed on Winovich, I was thoroughly unimpressed with him this year. Went from real optimism after his rookie season to considering him basically a JAG in pretty short time. Maybe he'll rebound and prove that assessment way off, I hope he does, but just anecdotally it rarely seems to go that way with guys like this. Something about undersized edge rushers with big egos just rubs me the wrong way maybe.

That's a bummer to hear about Jennings, but it also kinda sounds like maybe they haven't figured out the right role for him yet. Because if he *has* to be particularly mobile, then you probably shouldn't have drafted the guy in the first place. Or maybe it would probably be more accurate to say knew it was a weakness but figured he could at least still be passable in a role that didn't call on him to be fast, and he turned out to be too slow even for that. That's the kind of thing you'd really like your scouting department to clear before investing a third round pick on a guy, but at least it's only a late 3rd. Anyone without significant red flags is off the board at that point, shotgun approach is in full effect.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Agreed on Winovich, I was thoroughly unimpressed with him this year. Went from real optimism after his rookie season to considering him basically a JAG in pretty short time. Maybe he'll rebound and prove that assessment way off, I hope he does, but just anecdotally it rarely seems to go that way with guys like this. Something about undersized edge rushers with big egos just rubs me the wrong way maybe.

That's a bummer to hear about Jennings, but it also kinda sounds like maybe they haven't figured out the right role for him yet. Because if he *has* to be particularly mobile, then you probably shouldn't have drafted the guy in the first place. Or maybe it would probably be more accurate to say knew it was a weakness but figured he could at least still be passable in a role that didn't call on him to be fast, and he turned out to be too slow even for that. That's the kind of thing you'd really like your scouting department to clear before investing a third round pick on a guy, but at least it's only a late 3rd. Anyone without significant red flags is off the board at that point, shotgun approach is in full effect.

We heard that Hightower was slow and not mobile as well. No-one is perfect, and like you said, anyone in the late 3rd round will have a blemish or they would already be off the board. Jennings dropped back into coverage at AL so Saban did not think he was overly slow. Like every other rookie, there was no off-season, no training camp, no preseason and more Zoom practices than padded practices, so let's hit the brakes and see what happens in 2021. Remember Gunner and how this board said he looked like a HS player and was not fit for the NFL? Now Gunner is an All-Pro in Y2 leading the NFL in punt returns. Boston journalists always overreact, and when they are by chance correct, they always brag about it.

 

[50-yard-line]

Agreed on Winovich, I was thoroughly unimpressed with him this year. Went from real optimism after his rookie season to considering him basically a JAG in pretty short time. Maybe he'll rebound and prove that assessment way off, I hope he does, but just anecdotally it rarely seems to go that way with guys like this. Something about undersized edge rushers with big egos just rubs me the wrong way maybe.

That's a bummer to hear about Jennings, but it also kinda sounds like maybe they haven't figured out the right role for him yet. Because if he *has* to be particularly mobile, then you probably shouldn't have drafted the guy in the first place. Or maybe it would probably be more accurate to say knew it was a weakness but figured he could at least still be passable in a role that didn't call on him to be fast, and he turned out to be too slow even for that. That's the kind of thing you'd really like your scouting department to clear before investing a third round pick on a guy, but at least it's only a late 3rd. Anyone without significant red flags is off the board at that point, shotgun approach is in full effect.

Well, that's the whole point of the Bedard "revelations," isn't it? Go look at the draft profiles of the guys in question - he's just regurgitating the weaknesses that were known from all of them when the Patriots drafted them.

Harry is a receiver who doesn't get a lot of space but wins contested balls? Check.
Winovich can get out of position because of his aggressiveness and is a little undersized for the edge? Check.
Jennings has tight hips and isn't quick-footed? Check.

If these are deal-breakers, maybe, you know, draft different types of players or something?