Bedard: let six free agents walk

[Sciz]

OK. . . . so who are those two receivers going to be that are going to combine for 192 catches, 2,200+ yards, and 10 TDs, for less than the Pats would pay for Welker and Lloyd?

Well the whole idea behind upgrading Lloyd is to draw some safety help deep, which in theory opens things up underneath for the TEs and underneath WRs. The idea there isn't to find two WRs that replace Welker and Lloyd, but a WR that legitimately changes how defenses defend the Pats' offense by drawing coverage down the field to open things up underneath. The expectation is that adding that one WR will allow the TEs, other WRs, and RBs to have more room to turn smaller plays into bigger plays because there'd basically be one fewer body in the shallow part of the field.

Now it's not the course of action that I'd take this offseason, but I don't think it's as terrible as some people are making it out to be, assuming that #1 receiver turns out to be the right guy.

 

[supafly]

Now it's not the course of action that I'd take this offseason, but I don't think it's as terrible as some people are making it out to be, assuming that #1 receiver turns out to be the right guy.

I think that's the key part of the sentence, "this offseason."

I don't think that's a gamble they can really take right now, but in a perfect world we'd obtain a high pick WR through the draft who can come in and take away the WR2 job from Llyod, forcing him out next offseason instead.

 

[NE_PATS_FAN_54]

Looking at top free agent WRs:

• Cruz - RFA, will cost high draft pick plus a big contract, drops a lot of passes
• Bowe - Will cost big money, is amazingly adept at allowing passes to turn into INTs
• Wallace - Could have been had last season, wants big money
• Harvin - Would cost high draft pick and wants a big money contract
• Jennings - Has dealt with injuries and declining play in the past 2 seasons
• Amendola - Welker wannabe who can't stay healthy and who reports say is likely to be tagged if no deal is worked out
• Alexander - Player who can't stay healthy and has been a poor player outside of one stretch of games
• Hartline - wildly overrated by this board, looking to cash in on his first good season in his 4 year career. Even in this "breakout" season, he was at about 56% target/catch. Lloyd, whom he'd effectively be replacing/complimenting, was at 57%, and actually had 2 more first downs with the same number of catches and a smaller YPC.

These are just the players that will be available right now. Hundreds of players will be released in the coming days/weeks/months so we don't truly know what the available player pool will look. Never mind players available via trade. Since BB and crew can't draft a WR to save their lives, trade is a viable option. Also, this is the exact reason that Bedard didn't dive into the subject of who they Patriots should replace Welker/Lloyd with. Since we don't know who's available, all you can do is comment on what they should do with the guys they can control. Just because you don't agree with a person's point of view, doesn't automaticaly qualify it as "crap" as you say.

And also, Wallace "could have been had last year" for a 1st round pick and a new contract. Now he's a UFA. Much different situations
With Hartline, you can't compare target/catch rate between him and Lloyd. They were in completely different situations. Hartline was the focus of that offense with a rookie QB. Lloyd was the 3rd/4th option on a offense with the best QB in NFL history. Hartline would be a great addition to this offense.

 

[Deus Irae]

These are just the players that will be available right now. Hundreds of players will be released in the coming days/weeks/months so we don't truly know what the available player pool will look. Never mind players available via trade. Since BB and crew can't draft a WR to save their lives, trade is a viable option. Also, this is the exact reason that Bedard didn't dive into the subject of who they Patriots should replace Welker/Lloyd with. Since we don't know who's available, all you can do is comment on what they should do with the guys they can control. Just because you don't agree with a person's point of view, doesn't automaticaly qualify it as "crap" as you say.

Feel free to tell me all the elite WRs who are in danger of becoming cap casualties.

Also, differing opinions can be excellent. They can be mediocre. In this case, crap was fitting.

And also, Wallace "could have been had last year" for a 1st round pick and a new contract. Now he's a UFA. Much different situations

He was available to be had last year, as I noted. As I noted, this year he's looking for big money.

With Hartline, you can't compare target/catch rate between him and Lloyd. They were in completely different situations. Hartline was the focus of that offense with a rookie QB. Lloyd was the 3rd/4th option on a offense with the best QB in NFL history. Hartline would be a great addition to this offense.

Of course they can be compared. Lloyd was better and more productive, by at least one metric, in a system where he was, by your own claim, a lesser cog in the engine.

 

[Jimke]

These are just the players that will be available right now. Hundreds of players will be released in the coming days/weeks/months so we don't truly know what the available player pool will look. Never mind players available via trade. Since BB and crew can't draft a WR to save their lives, trade is a viable option. Also, this is the exact reason that Bedard didn't dive into the subject of who they Patriots should replace Welker/Lloyd with. Since we don't know who's available, all you can do is comment on what they should do with the guys they can control. Just because you don't agree with a person's point of view, doesn't automaticaly qualify it as "crap" as you say.

And also, Wallace "could have been had last year" for a 1st round pick and a new contract. Now he's a UFA. Much different situations
With Hartline, you can't compare target/catch rate between him and Lloyd. They were in completely different situations. Hartline was the focus of that offense with a rookie QB. Lloyd was the 3rd/4th option on a offense with the best QB in NFL history. Hartline would be a great addition to this offense.

How many of these receivers are willing to accept less than market value?

 

[NE_PATS_FAN_54]

Feel free to tell me all the elite WRs who are in danger of becoming cap casualties.

No way to tell right now. The changes of an elite WR being cut? Slim. But there will be quality players available this off-season other than just free agents.

Of course they can be compared. Lloyd was better and more productive, by at least one metric, in a system where he was, by your own claim, a lesser cog in the engine.

Easy with the better and more productive remark here. Even if we didn't consider the fact of who their respective QB's where (Brady vs. Tannehill) and who their offensive complements were (gronk/hernandez/ridley/vereen/welker/woodhead) vs. (bush/fasano/bess), we are talking about 56% vs 57% in a marginal statistic. I'd call that even.

 

[supafly]

Easy with the better and more productive remark here. Even if we didn't consider the fact of who their respective QB's where (Brady vs. Tannehill) and who their offensive complements were (gronk/hernandez/ridley/vereen/welker/woodhead) vs. (bush/fasano/bess), we are talking about 56% vs 57% in a marginal statistic. I'd call that even.

I'm jumping into the conversation a little late here, so forgive me, but are you claiming that it'd be better to release Llyod and sign Hartline?

I would assume that is not your point, because if it were it wouldn't make much sense based on the fact that Hartline would cost much more.

If your argument is to try and replace Welker with Hartline, that may be even worse because the potential cap savings wouldn't equal the lessened production that we'd get.

 

[Deus Irae]

No way to tell right now. The changes of an elite WR being cut? Slim.

Then there's no sense making the move. It's essentially "Destroy the WR corps and then pray".

But there will be quality players available this off-season other than just free agents.

The NFL rarely has trades of consequence. Draft picks are, for obvious reasons, questionable (and WR is right up at the top of the bust list), and that leaves gods from Asgard.

Easy with the better and more productive remark here. Even if we didn't consider the fact of who their respective QB's where (Brady vs. Tannehill) and who their offensive complements were (gronk/hernandez/ridley/vereen/welker/woodhead) vs. (bush/fasano/bess), we are talking about 56% vs 57% in a marginal statistic. I'd call that even.

Lloyd got more first downs despite fewer yards and YPC, and the 56/57 is just a sidenote. And, again, Lloyd accomplished his while seeing his place on the target chart start at 2 and fall down to 3-4 over the course of the season, and he usually had the opposing team's CB1 or CB2 on him, so it wasn't because he was always facing weaker defenders. Hartline only managed to get basically the same numbers, despite being his team's #1 target.

In other words, it played out as I noted.

Bedard's column was garbage. You're defending a garbage column. There's really not much more to say about it.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

i am on the harvin train...harvin or bust baby

 

[supafly]

i am on the harvin train...harvin or bust baby

PROS

He's young at 24. He's obviously talented. He has great speed and moves. He would make the offense more exciting instantly. He can take a lot of work in the slot and also move outside. He could tie up some of the safety's attention which could help to free up some more of the underneath routes. He can make big plays downfield both with YACs and with 20+ yd catches. He is versatile.


CONS

He would need to be signed to a big deal first, not to mention the high round trade pick + an additional later round pick that it'd cost. A major money investment and gamble. He has had some questionable attitude issues. He may have somewhat of a weakened psyche that points towards quitting, and/or selfish tendencies that the team normally doesn't touch in many cases, although there have been exceptions. He has had migraine issues in the past, although that seems to have corrected itself lately. He had a decent ankle injury this year, but that shouldn't affect his moving forward.

 

[Rob0729]

These are just the players that will be available right now. Hundreds of players will be released in the coming days/weeks/months so we don't truly know what the available player pool will look. Never mind players available via trade. Since BB and crew can't draft a WR to save their lives, trade is a viable option. Also, this is the exact reason that Bedard didn't dive into the subject of who they Patriots should replace Welker/Lloyd with. Since we don't know who's available, all you can do is comment on what they should do with the guys they can control. Just because you don't agree with a person's point of view, doesn't automaticaly qualify it as "crap" as you say.

And also, Wallace "could have been had last year" for a 1st round pick and a new contract. Now he's a UFA. Much different situations
With Hartline, you can't compare target/catch rate between him and Lloyd. They were in completely different situations. Hartline was the focus of that offense with a rookie QB. Lloyd was the 3rd/4th option on a offense with the best QB in NFL history. Hartline would be a great addition to this offense.

The only WRs I have heard that are any good that have been rumored or speculated of being released or traded that I have seen are Boldin (who said he would retire) and Santonio Holmes (more speculation than even a rumor). And Holmes is a head case coming off a major injury and will need to have surgery in a month or so to remove the hardware out of his foot and won't be able to run until late spring. I seriously doubt there will be any real surprises.

As for Wallace, word is the Browns will be going hard after him. They got tons of cap space. Chances are they will get him or drive up his price so much that he won't be worth it.

As for Hartline, yes the situations are different, but as the focal point of Dolphins' offense compared to a 3rd and 4th option of Lloyd, he should have better stats than Lloyd no matter the QB. For a rookie, Tannehill was actually pretty good.