Be honest: Do the OT rules to end games need changing?

[Deus Irae]

Anyone with a brain in his head can figure out that having a draft order that punishes success is not fair, but we don't get calls to fix the draft every time we turn around. So let's stop with the nonsense about overtime.

 

[Deus Irae]

The system is fair. And it helped the Pats a lot. And those statements are not inconsistent.

Yes, actually, they are inconsistent. Actually, they are in opposition. If the system is fair for all, it's not helping any team more than another in existence or application.

But at least I see the problem now. You're confusing the system itself with the abilities of specific players and teams to work within said system, based upon the applications of those abilities, not based upon the system.

Or, to put it another way, Tom Brady has gone to the Super Bowl in half of his NFL seasons. That's not because the system is unfairly rigged in his favor. That's because of multiple factors outside of the specifics of the NFL system, the two most important of which being that he's the G.O.A.T. and that his head coach is one of the two greatest coaches in league history.

 

[bormio]

Yes, actually, they are inconsistent. Actually, they are in opposition. If the system is fair for all, it's not helping any team more than another in existence or application.

But at least I see the problem now. You're confusing the system itself with the abilities of specific players and teams to work within said system, based upon the applications of those abilities, not based upon the system.

What you are ignoring is the fact that the pretest probability (the chance each team has of scoring a TD on its initial drive) impacts the desired outcome that the coin flip not affect the result of the game. Most fans feel if the coin flip affects the result of the game - it is not fair.

 

[bormio]

What you are ignoring is the fact that the pretest probability (the chance each team has of scoring a TD on its initial drive) impacts the desired outcome that the coin flip not affect the result of the game. Most fans feel if the coin flip affects the result of the game - it is not fair.

If NE has an 80% chance of scoring a TD on the first drive - their chance of winning the game goes to 80%+ if they win the flip.

 

[Flash]

I don't even understand why people are making a big deal out of this. The Saints literally won the coin toss and Drew Brees threw an INT and lost the game. I saw on reddit that statistics show teams winning the coin toss only win about 54%~ of the time, this is not a significant advantage.

I'd understand Chiefs fans being salty since they were on the losing end but the rest of the NFL are only complaining because it's the Patriots that benefited from this.

 

[Deus Irae]

What you are ignoring is the fact that the pretest probability (the chance each team has of scoring a TD on its initial drive) impacts the desired outcome that the coin flip not affect the result of the game. Most fans feel if the coin flip affects the result of the game - it is not fair.

I'm not ignoring anything. You're trying to apply specific context to general rules and act as if that's meaningful and relevant, when it's not. As I noted, in the current NFL, which is specifically designed to prevent long lived dynasties, the Patriots have gone to the Super Bowl 9 times in 18 seasons. That's not because the system has been unfairly rigged in favor of Tom Brady, BB and the Patriots. It's because, within said non-rigged system, Tom Brady, BB and the Patriots are the best.

In other words, you're talking out of your ass.

 

[bormio]

I'm not ignoring anything. You're trying to apply specific context to general rules and act as if that's meaningful and relevant, when it's not. As I noted, in the current NFL, which is specifically designed to prevent long lived dynasties, the Patriots have gone to the Super Bowl 9 times in 18 seasons. That's not because the system has been unfairly rigged in favor of Tom Brady, BB and the Patriots. It's because, within said non-rigged system, Tom Brady, BB and the Patriots are the best.

In other words, you're talking out of your ass.

And you are diverting because you lost the argument.

 

[Deus Irae]

And you are diverting because you lost the argument.

I haven't diverted anything. In fact, even after I told you that I wasn't going to continue down this particular track, I gave another response or two to your godawful argument. You're making an ass out of yourself, because you insist on making an argument that's the equivalent of "The NBA isn't fair because tall, fast people with a great ability to shoot a basketball have an advantage over short slow guys who couldn't hit water falling off of a boat".

So here's something that you should know, but apparently don't:

"Fair", in context, isn't about equality of outcome.

 

[bormio]

I haven't diverted anything. In fact, even after I told you that I wasn't going to continue down this particular track, I gave another response or two to your godawful argument. You're making an ass out of yourself, because you insist on making an argument that's the equivalent of "The NBA isn't fair because tall, fast people with a great ability to shoot a basketball have an advantage over short slow guys who couldn't hit water falling off of a boat".

So here's something that you should know, but apparently don't:

"Fair", in context, isn't about equality of outcome.

So if winning the coin flip gives NE an 80% chance to win, and winning the same coin flip gives KC an 80% chance to win - you don’t see why people say the coin flip determined the result and think the system is poor.

 

[Deus Irae]

So if winning the coin flip gives NE an 80% chance to win, and winning the same coin flip gives KC an 80% chance to win - you don’t see why people say the coin flip determined the result and think the system is poor.

For the last time:

1. The fairness issue, in context, is about giving as close to a level field of opportunity as is possible in an inherently unfair situation. It is not about letting everyone have a turn, or requiring a TD instead of a FG, or any of that crap, as those are just potential methods of achieving the mythical fairness, and not the mythical fairness itself. In fact, the only "fair" overtime in football is no overtime at all, since requiring/allowing overtime in a game designed specifically for a limited period is inherently unfair, but both the league and fans have chosen not to let that be how the game is governed.
2. Nothing is fairer than a 50/50 opportunity, which is what a coin toss provides.
   
3. Nobody knows what percentage chance of victory exists for any specific team in any specific game, so your 80% claim is irrelevant.
4. Even taking your 80% rate as accurate in a specific case, your argument is meaningless, because the OT rules are not in place to govern specific matchups, but are in place to govern regardless of specific matchups.

So, if a bunch of idiots want to cry because they think Tom Brady is so good that he gives the Patriots an edge over pretty much every opposing defense (and that's what the bleating here is actually about, as you tacitly acknowledge when you admit that the success or failure chances are variable based upon teams and circumstances), I really don't care. The fact that one team is more, or less, capable of taking advantage of "fair" rules does not make said rules somehow not "fair". Now, if you want to continue making the same lousy argument you've been making, I suggest making it to someone else, because I've given you far too much time on it already.

 

[bormio]

For the last time:

1. The fairness issue, in context, is about giving as close to a level field of opportunity as is possible in an inherently unfair situation. It is not about letting everyone have a turn, or requiring a TD instead of a FG, or any of that crap, as those are just potential methods of achieving the mythical fairness, and not the mythical fairness itself. In fact, the only "fair" overtime in football is no overtime at all, since requiring/allowing overtime in a game designed specifically for a limited period is inherently unfair, but both the league and fans have chosen not to let that be how the game is governed.
2. Nothing is fairer than a 50/50 opportunity, which is what a coin toss provides.
   
3. Nobody knows what percentage chance of victory exists for any specific team in any specific game, so your 80% claim is irrelevant.
4. Even taking your 80% rate as accurate in a specific case, your argument is meaningless, because the OT rules are not in place to govern specific matchups, but are in place to govern regardless of specific matchups.

So, if a bunch of idiots want to cry because they think Tom Brady is so good that he gives the Patriots an edge over pretty much every opposing defense (and that's what the bleating here is actually about, as you tacitly acknowledge when you admit that the success or failure chances are variable based upon teams and circumstances), I really don't care. The fact that one team is more, or less, capable of taking advantage of "fair" rules does not make said rules somehow not "fair". Now, if you want to continue making the same lousy argument you've been making, I suggest making it to someone else, because I've given you far too much time on it already.

I have made my argument, and have no desire in convincing you because you are too dense.

 

[Deus Irae]

I have made my argument, and have no desire in convincing you because you are too dense.

Now that's some high level irony.

 

[Caretaker]

As long as your team isn't equivalent to SSOL Phoenix Suns, you should be able (or at least have a reasonable chance) to stop the other guys from scoring TD. Sure, some teams are better equipped to win toss/get the ball scenario, but is it good enough reason to change the rules again?

Anyways, if they'll allow to get a possession after TD, I'll be fine with it. I just want it to be consistent.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Talking heads just wanted to see Mahomes get the W over Brady for the story — tough **** losers.

The rules sucked with the ability to lose on a FG a minute into OT. They changed it to you only lose if they score a TD in the opening drive. You hold em to a FG? You get a chance to win. If you give up an opening drive TD, you didn’t deserve to win. Hell, you had 4 quarters to do it. The rule change was perfect.

The only reason it’s a problem now is Tom Brady led a legendary drive in OT to go back to the Super Bowl and the media darling lost.

 

[scott99]

I guess not surprisingly there’s more handwringing this morning over the OT rules having the Patriots walk off another TD. I doubt there would be as much concern if it went the other way but I digress.

Some like Florio think the college rules would be better to let both teams get a shot with the football. I really hope we never see that here.

I didn’t like a cheap FG winning the game but I do like very much a TD doing it. I think it’s fine as it is.

I think they are fine. Lose the coin toss, you need to play some defense and force the team into a FG or less. Then you get the ball back anyway. If you can't stop the team from scoring a TD, you deserve to lose.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Of all the things that are obviously, demonstrably unfair in the NFL, I'd say the overtime rules rank pretty low on the list. That said, I have no particular objection to changing them. Is history is any indicator, they'll get changed and at some point in the next year or two the Patriots will benefit from said change and everyone will lose their damn minds all over again.

 

[slam]

I do fervently hope that if they do change the OT rules, the Patriots are the first team to benefit from it.

 

[Sfpat]

I agree - on average the current system IS close to fair. But with 2 high- powered offenses and tired defenses, the advantage swings to the team going first. So the Pats got a big break by winning the flip, just as KC would have if they did. I don’t think we really disagree.

So what. It's a single game with specific circumstances. Do you propose multiple rules depending on who is playing who and where, weather conditions, time of day, 1st game of year, etc. etc.?

 

[Sfpat]

What you are ignoring is the fact that the pretest probability (the chance each team has of scoring a TD on its initial drive) impacts the desired outcome that the coin flip not affect the result of the game. Most fans feel if the coin flip affects the result of the game - it is not fair.

The probability of the coin toss is known to all prior to the start of the game. If a coach wants to rely on a coin toss to determine the outcome, that is a coaching decision. KC had opportunities to avoid the probabilities of the coin toss and elected to go for the tie anyway. The rules didn't change after KC decided to kick the tying FG

 

[Mack Herron]