A way too early ranking of the AFC (with minimal thought put into it):
- Patriots
- Chiefs
- Chargers
- Steelers
- Browns
- Texans
- Titans
- Jaguars
- Ravens
- Jets
- Bills
- Broncos
- Raiders
- Colts
- Bengals
- Dolphins
It's hard to rank teams because it depends on how you look at them. For instance you ranked the chargers 3rd, and in a macro sense that's probably correct. Does that make them the 2nd biggest threat to the Patriots? I don't think so. What comes into play is a team's ceiling vs floor. The Chargers will be pretty good but not great. They are missing that X factor to really challenge.
Here is how I rank these teams (more based on threat level).
Stuck in the basement.
16 Raiders
15 Bengals
14 Colts
13 Dolphins
Decent teams/above average upside
12 Titans - They will be exactly average. No better no worse.
11 Jaguars - Foles can get streaky and make them dangerous at times but can't sustain.
10 Jets - A better situation than JAX. Their QB hasn't proven he can't do it for 16 games.
9 Bills - In the same spot as the Jets but with a better defense.
8 Ravens - They have the coach and D. Unlike the Bills or Jets I think their QB has no chance to pan out though. Limiting their upside.
Good teams but not true contenders
7 Steelers - A good team with a good QB but so-so coaching and lacking the pieces. They have no chance to put it all together and make a real run, but will be in the mix.
6 Chargers - This team may well have a chance to make some noise and pull an upset on someone. However as I said they lack that X factor just like the Steelers do.
5 Texans - This team has the highest ceiling of these three teams but are still limited. Last years playoff game vs the Colts showed they are not ready and that is still the case.
Dark horses
4 Broncos - The Broncos are probably going to miss the playoffs. That being said if they get it together their upside can be very scary. Miller/Chubb looks legit and could make this D very scary once more. Their skill players could be very good. Sutton in particular is a forgotten man. He could make a big jump this year. Him and Emmanuel would be a good 1-2 if that happens. Their run game will be good as always and their QB situation is set up well for upside. Flacco can manage games and keep them close. Add in that home field advantage and they could surprise. People are sleeping on their upside.
3 Browns - Many people have gone over it before.
Penciled in contenders.
2 Chiefs - Nothing needs to be said.
1 Patriots - Ditto.