The FRG has a little ****
They'll also be facing stiffer competition. Denver that was hit hard by injuries lost to them by only 6 pts the 2nd time, and are a "Deshaun Watson" away from giving them real competition. The Chargers almost beat them in their 1st game being rookie Herbert's 1st pro game. Raiders only team to beat them (not counting loss to Chargers).I think the bigger issue is their roster just isn’t elite anymore. They’ve been carried by superstars, and that has its consequences. Sure, there’s a strong case that a top-5 of Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Jones, and Mathieu are the best top 5 in the league.
When you start getting beyond that, you see a roster almost devoid of that upper-middle level guy. So many players who are average to below average. ESPN had a list ranking the Super Bowl players, and after those top 5, which Chiefs player would rank ahead of these Bucs players... Brady, Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronkowski, Wirfs, Jensen, Marpet, Vea, Suh, Pierre-Paul, Barrett, White, David, Winfield.
That’s literally 15 players, and you could list off another 10 where it’s debatable because the Chiefs don’t have a guy who stands out. Fischer and Schwartz would likely be somewhere up the list, but this also shows how superstar heavy contracts (those guys were at over $20M) are risky as there’s little depth in case of injury. Those plucky role players are great, except when they’re asked to play at a level higher than their capabilities.
Frank Clark’s cap number is $25M next year (lol), a horrible investment at the most overrated, overvalued position in sports. Also cost them a first round pick. Watkins was playing for like $14M this year, too. That’s a lot of wasted money there.
I think the Chiefs are still favorites in the AFC, but I also think the team has made abysmally bad moves that are going to get worse and worse over time. The Patriots have realized for a long time that, with an all-world QB, those huge contracts to the wrong players are the only thing that can really wreck your team. We saw Seattle and Green Bay do something similar, but the Chiefs are on another level of superstar worshipping to the detriment of the overall roster. With Mahomes now moving out of the rookie pay scale, Kelce getting older, and those two tackles having major injury questions, they’ll likely be a lot closer to the lower margin of victory that you cited and their record will reflect that.
I don't think they get HFA in 2021, then anything can happen.