Another option: Wilson at 22

[Box_O_Rocks]

Wasn't invoking Capers WRT either Meriweather or Chung as a rookie. What I was saying is that Capers had less overall DB talent to work with in '08 than Boyer had in '09 and somewhat better performance. He also appeared to have rookies Wilhite and Wheatley on a better development track. So, I'm extrapolating that, had Capers stuck around for 2009, Wilhite and Wheatley might not have regressed in their sophomore seasons and Butler and Chung might have developed even faster than they did.

BTW - there's a HUGE difference in the tackle numbers for Chung between NFL.com and PFF. With 125 snaps played, even subtracting the ST tackles from the 37 TT, Chung's tackle rate would have far exceeded the best starters in the league.

There was a time when I could find the season ending release NE sent out to all the media with NE's own coach's stats, those are the ones I'd like to see Patriots.com publish instead of linking to those pitiful in-game stats compiled by NFL.com. I recall an article this winter from one of our local reporters which mentioned Guyton's Tackles credited him with almost a game's worth more than NFL.com's final numbers, so I know the season ending release is still going out to the media. It's frustrating from a fan's perspective to not have the most accurate data if we're going to dissect our team.

 

[Nonentity]

BTW - there's a HUGE difference in the tackle numbers for Chung between NFL.com and PFF. With 125 snaps played, even subtracting the ST tackles from the 37 TT, Chung's tackle rate would have far exceeded the best starters in the league.

I like to entertain myself with the notion that actually these are the signs that Chung is a fantastic player


Another thought: perhaps teams were aiming at him a lot because he's a rookie, and Merriweather is the other side of the field? That would be a reason for him making more tackles.

 

[Nonentity]

Me neither. He does look faster on tape than his Combine numbers, so he might have shown up a bit of Haden-itis (although he sorted his numbers out), but those numbers are damning.

He has a slower shuttle time than half our O-line, and his 3 cone time was very poor for an alleged athletic freak.

Give me Te'o-Nesheim instead.

Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes.



Ahem.

 

[MaineMan]

There was a time when I could find the season ending release NE sent out to all the media with NE's own coach's stats, those are the ones I'd like to see Patriots.com publish instead of linking to those pitiful in-game stats compiled by NFL.com. I recall an article this winter from one of our local reporters which mentioned Guyton's Tackles credited him with almost a game's worth more than NFL.com's final numbers, so I know the season ending release is still going out to the media. It's frustrating from a fan's perspective to not have the most accurate data if we're going to dissect our team.

Absolutely agree. However, for me, the big thing is consistency - comparing apples to apples.

So, PFF (whose guys base their numbers on their own study of TV tape) has Chung with 13 tackles in 194 snaps (I misquoted 125 in my previous post). That extrapolates to about 40 tackles in 600 snaps which is right in line with what PFF credits to several other safeties who did have right around 600 snaps --- and to 50-something tackles in about 775 snaps (also right in line) - and to about 65 tackles in 970 snaps, just a bit less than the guys who did actually get that many snaps (mostly top starting veterans). So, PFF's numbers appear to be internally consistent, at least.

The numbers on NFL.com are internally consistent as well and they match the numbers from PFF very closely, IF you subtract ST tackles (from PFF) and NFL.com assists (NFL.com appears to be much more liberal in crediting assists) from the NFL.com "Combined" number for a given player. For Chung, this yields 15 tackles (PFF has him at 13).

Kyle Arrington is credited with 18 TT by NFL.com (14 + 4 assists) even though he had NO tackles from scrimmage AFAIK. PFF has Arrington with 13 ST tackles and 0 tackles from scrimmage. So, 14/13 is pretty close an makes it clear that NFL.com does include ST tackles in their total.

McGowan: NFL.com = 79 TT (59 + 20 assists). Subtract PFFs 7 ST tackles from 59 = 52 and PFF credits McGowan with 54. Again, 52/54 is pretty close.

The numbers worked out within 1-3 tackles either way for each of several other players I chose at random.

The point is, of course, to use one set of numbers exclusively for the sake of consistency - apples to apples. I prefer PFF only because they break things down into more detail (including snaps played at what position, number of times thrown at with completion percentage, etc.). Perhaps the coaches numbers would be more accurate, but perhaps more accurate ONLY for Pats players and they might not be quite as trustworthy as those from neutral observers for comparing Pats players to the rest of the league.

 

[MaineMan]

I like to entertain myself with the notion that actually these are the signs that Chung is a fantastic player


Another thought: perhaps teams were aiming at him a lot because he's a rookie, and Merriweather is the other side of the field? That would be a reason for him making more tackles.

Actually, as I surmised earlier, it's mostly a difference resulting from NFL.com including ST tackles and NFL.com's far more liberal crediting of assists. The solo from scrimmage tackle numbers for PFF and NFL.com are virtually the same (13 and 14, respectively, for Chung). IOW, as long as you're not comparing NFL.com gross TT to PFF solo tackles, you'll be okay. See my response to BoR for the details.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Actually, as I surmised earlier, it's mostly a difference resulting from NFL.com including ST tackles and NFL.com's far more liberal crediting of assists. The solo from scrimmage tackle numbers for PFF and NFL.com are virtually the same (13 and 14, respectively, for Chung). IOW, as long as you're not comparing NFL.com gross TT to PFF solo tackles, you'll be okay. See my response to BoR for the details.

So the bottom line is Chung's rookie year was pretty decent.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Taking a CB at the 22nd pick would be really stupid. So we should pick a CB just because the Jets have Holmes and the Dolphins have Marshall? How long can they cover these guys without a pass rush? Remember how the Giants beat the Pats in the '07 super bowl? You guys haven't learned much since then have you? Their CB's were horrible but looked like pro bowlers because the pass rush was relentless. The key to neutralizing good WR's is not even allowing them a chance at getting the ball from consistent pressure. The Pats aren't great at CB but they are not '05/'08 bad. If the Pats can find a pass rusher or two, they can slide with what they have this season. However, if they plan on taking a rookie CB, I can see them taking one in the 4th round.

 

[Marqui]

Taking a CB at the 22nd pick would be really stupid. So we should pick a CB just because the Jets have Holmes and the Dolphins have Marshall? How long can they cover these guys without a pass rush? Remember how the Giants beat the Pats in the '07 super bowl? You guys haven't learned much since then have you? Their CB's were horrible but looked like pro bowlers because the pass rush was relentless. The key to neutralizing good WR's is not even allowing them a chance at getting the ball from consistent pressure. The Pats aren't great at CB but they are not '05/'08 bad. If the Pats can find a pass rusher or two, they can slide with what they have this season. However, if they plan on taking a rookie CB, I can see them taking one in the 4th round.

Glad to see I'm not the only one that knows this.

It doesn't matter how good the CBs are, if there's no pass rush the CBs will eventually either lose the ball or lose the receiver. The secondary would look a lot better with a great pass rush

 

[MaineMan]

So the bottom line is Chung's rookie year was pretty decent.

Well, pretty decent in weeks 7, 9 and 10 when he got about 60% of his total snaps on the year. I just wish he'd been able to do enough to replace McGowan for the rest of the season after that.

 

[MaineMan]

Glad to see I'm not the only one that knows this.

It doesn't matter how good the CBs are, if there's no pass rush the CBs will eventually either lose the ball or lose the receiver. The secondary would look a lot better with a great pass rush

Well, that goes both ways.

Really, there can only be five pass targets on any given play. With three really good cover corners (we had, well, ONE) and two good cover safeties (we had, again, ONE), even a modest pass rush should have an extra tick to get close enough to home to cause some QB errors.

I'm not saying our pass rush doesn't need upgrading, but it's not like we were worst in the league either.

What I'd like to see is the addition of one very good cover corner (Wilson, McCourty, possibly Jackson) and one pass-rusher who's at least the equivalent of TBC on the other side (take yer pick). If Butler continues to improve at his recent rate, and if Chung can cover better than Sanders or McGowan, I think our overall pass defense suddenly becomes very good again. But I really think we need to upgrade a bit on both sides of the pass-rush/coverage dynamic. I don't think it's an "either/or".

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Glad to see I'm not the only one that knows this.

It doesn't matter how good the CBs are, if there's no pass rush the CBs will eventually either lose the ball or lose the receiver. The secondary would look a lot better with a great pass rush

Just to be the devil's advocate here (and not to be disrespectful) I have to wonder if you have a shutdown corner wouldn't that frees up a safety who can then blitz? It is a slippery issue.

The Patriots have a fairly respectable set of DBs so it makes sense to go for the pass rush first but if someone like Wilson or Hagen falls to them they have to take him.

 

[supafly]

Thought this deserved a bump, considering the discussion of Wilson, McCourty, and Jackson at #22.

Nice call by mgteich.

 

[captain stone]

Nice call indeed.

I really really hope we don't rue the day that Bill ignored the consensus higher-rated Kyle Wilson in favor of McCourty.