Analyzing the offense

[Ring 6]

Good research.

As always, the NEP call plays based on the talent available to them.

If you look at the roster of the 2017 team.....
584 total passing plays and 38% of them went to Cooks and Gronk who collectively represented 47% of the total yards and averaged 16ypc

For the 2021 team...
524 pass plays and 38% went to Meyers and Henry who collectively represented 36% of the yards and ave 11yac.

We can say it's Josh calling more conservatively, or Mac just isn't looking downfield as much or not being more patient with his reads but it's clear as day there is a gap in game-breaking talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Gotta wonder what Mac would do in Year 2 throwing to a still in their prime Cooks and Gronk.

Agree but what I think I learned from looking this up is not that they need game breaking plays but that they need to throw 6-12 yards downfield instead of 0-2.
If you can pick up first downs on 1st and 2nd you need fewer do or die 3rd downs.
We don’t need 35 on 2nd and 7 we need 7 or 10 or 14. Instead, way to often, we are completing a pass and not moving the sticks.
No doubt Mac is too quick to check down, the question is whether that’s under orders or on his own.
And im not even saying it’s a bad thing, because this offense was light years better than it had any right to be, maybe the most productive offense ever with a rookie QB. I’m just saying this is a way to elevate it to the next level. I think it needs that next level to make noise in the post season because the rely on making a bunch of 3rd downs is a hard way to win playoff games. Of course it comes with the risk of aggressive-created mistakes. I think the best chance to win is to push that envelope a bit.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Sure mistakes are a factor but you can’t wave a wand and change that. You can say we need to push the ball down the field a little more to turn 2nd and 7 passes into 1st and 10 instead of 3rd and 3, and/or throw more in those situations. All season we have run much more heavily in those situations than in last years.
Mistakes happen you can’t just lose because of them, you have to overcome them. One clear way to do that is not be reliant on converting a ton of 3rd downs making yourself susceptible to drive killing mistakes.

The 2017 had the talent to overcome mistakes.

The 2021 team kinda does but not as frequently.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agree but what I think I learned from looking this up is not that they need game breaking plays but that they need to throw 6-12 yards downfield instead of 0-2.
If you can pick up first downs on 1st and 2nd you need fewer do or die 3rd downs.
We don’t need 35 on 2nd and 7 we need 7 or 10 or 14. Instead, way to often, we are completing a pass and not moving the sticks.
No doubt Mac is too quick to check down, the question is whether that’s under orders or on his own.
And im not even saying it’s a bad thing, because this offense was light years better than it had any right to be, maybe the most productive offense ever with a rookie QB. I’m just saying this is a way to elevate it to the next level. I think it needs that next level to make noise in the post season because the rely on making a bunch of 3rd downs is a hard way to win playoff games. Of course it comes with the risk of aggressive-created mistakes. I think the best chance to win is to push that envelope a bit.

Yep and assuming you used this web site for your research it tells that story for Mac.

Hes pretty much in the 20s.

2021 NFL Team Ranks: Offensive Efficiency & Success

Ranking every NFL team offense during the 2021 season, using advanced Success Metrics: missed yards per attempt, yards to stick, yards above success & success rate.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

We have a rookie QB with functional- but not dynamic playmakers. Couldn't have hope for a better result.

 

[Ring 6]

The 2017 had the talent to overcome mistakes.

The 2021 team kinda does but not as frequently.

Prioritizing staying out if 3rd down instead of getting to 3rd and short would mitigate that.
Im looking at it this way:
If it’s second and 7-10, which of these 2 alternatives would you prefer?

Dump off a check down with a 75% chance of completion but a 20% chance of a first down, or throw the ball 6-12 yards downfield with a 50% chance of completion and 40% chance if first downs?

I say an offense that takes the check down will not be as effective as one that doesn’t.

My point about mistakes was that you can’t game plan them away but you can game plan around them.
Ultimately if you keep 1 drive alive per half by staying out of 3rd down, you turn most losses into wins.

That said, 1000000%, the most important thing is not turning the ball over and talking it away
Everything else is crap analysis put alongside that. But again, you can’t gameplan consistently for what occurs on maybe 1 out of every 50 plays.

 

[Ring 6]

Yep and assuming you used this web site for your research it tells that story for Mac.

Hes pretty much in the 20s.

2021 NFL Team Ranks: Offensive Efficiency & Success

Ranking every NFL team offense during the 2021 season, using advanced Success Metrics: missed yards per attempt, yards to stick, yards above success & success rate.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

We have a rookie QB with functional- but not dynamic playmakers. Couldn't have hope for a better result.

I used pro football reference. Thanks for this source. Assuming we win today, I can do a deeper dive. Of course if we don’t I’ll be disinterested in dancing on the grave.

 

[Ring 6]

Yep and assuming you used this web site for your research it tells that story for Mac.

Hes pretty much in the 20s.

2021 NFL Team Ranks: Offensive Efficiency & Success

Ranking every NFL team offense during the 2021 season, using advanced Success Metrics: missed yards per attempt, yards to stick, yards above success & success rate.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

We have a rookie QB with functional- but not dynamic playmakers. Couldn't have hope for a better result.

There used to be a site that broke down QBs stats by length of throw. Very insightful stats. If anyone knows where to get that now, please let me know.

 

[Wozzy]

Sure mistakes are a factor but you can’t wave a wand and change that. You can say we need to push the ball down the field a little more to turn 2nd and 7 passes into 1st and 10 instead of 3rd and 3, and/or throw more in those situations. All season we have run much more heavily in those situations than in last years.
Mistakes happen you can’t just lose because of them, you have to overcome them. One clear way to do that is not be reliant on converting a ton of 3rd downs making yourself susceptible to drive killing mistakes.

The Pats have been losing because of mistakes, because of poor execution, because of turnovers. These are things you can fix.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Prioritizing staying out if 3rd down instead of getting to 3rd and short would mitigate that.
Im looking at it this way:
If it’s second and 7-10, which of these 2 alternatives would you prefer?

Dump off a check down with a 75% chance of completion but a 20% chance of a first down, or throw the ball 6-12 yards downfield with a 50% chance of completion and 40% chance if first downs?

I say an offense that takes the check down will not be as effective as one that doesn’t.

I agree in principal.

I just don't think Mac is there yet.

Interesting numbers...

Mac is 3rd in # of times blitzed but of 16 QBs have more than 500att Mac is #1 is least times pressured

Hes middle of the pack in time to throw. (2.4sec)

My belief is he is getting time to make his reads. Hes just not doing it all the time.

I do agree with Warner. The game is fast for him right now.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats have been losing because of mistakes, because of poor execution, because of turnovers. These are things you can fix.

You can try, but every team makes mistakes. You have to be able to overcome them, not pray for perfection and lose if you don’t get it.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree in principal.

I just don't think Mac is there yet.

Interesting numbers...

Mac is 3rd in # of times blitzed but of 16 QBs have more than 500att and Mac is #1 is least times pressured

Hes middle of the pack in time to throw. (2.4sec)

My belief is he is getting time to make his reads. Hes just not doing it all the time.

I do agree with Warner. The game is fast for him right now.

My feeling is if he isn’t more patient with his first read and continues to check down the offense will be mediocre against good competition and we aren’t going far.
If he forces himself to wait, he may take more hits, may take an extra sack or 2, but the offense will become much more dynamic and the chances of advancing improve.

That said, if we don’t change it up, then the degense must dominate and we are going to need to be mistake free and make plays in the clutch.

 

[Wozzy]

You can try, but every team makes mistakes. You have to be able to overcome them, not pray for perfection and lose if you don’t get it.

Agreed, mistakes happen. The Pats have lost games because their turnovers and mistakes were too frequent. Poor execution has not been a small factor in these losses, it has been the major factor. This has been an undisciplined team, when they weren’t messing up they have been very successful.

I’m not sure staring at random stats tells us anything. Otherwise good players playing poorly explains it all. After points, turnovers are the most important stat in football… because it most correlates to points.

 

[Ring 6]

Agreed, mistakes happen. The Pats have lost games because their turnovers and mistakes were too frequent. Poor execution has not been a small factor in these losses, it has been the major factor. This has been an undisciplined team, when they weren’t messing up they have been very successful.

I’m not sure staring at random stats tells us anything. Otherwise good players playing poorly explains it all. After points, turnovers are the most important stat in football… because it most correlates to points.

Checking down too quickly is an example of poor execution and it has had a big impact.
If you don’t think that the issue I posted about tells us anything, feel free to not participate.

 

[oldrover]

Great info, @Ring 6 . One of the most enlightening threads of the year.

 

[Wozzy]

Checking down too quickly is an example of poor execution and it has had a big impact.
If you don’t think that the issue I posted about tells us anything, feel free to not participate.

You also posted that the Pats ranked 17th in offensive turnovers, they rank 23rd in fumbles lost. This along with untimely penalties and poor blocking early in the season tells the entire story. The Patriots offense checked down often in 2001 and won a championship.

The Pats offense (per drive) ranks 6th in points scored and 11th in yards, they rank 10th best in third down conversions. They're a good offense when they're not shooting themselves in the foot.

If you want an echo chamber where nobody disagrees with you, posting this on a public forum discussing Patriots football is probably not the way to achieve it.

“Look, there’s no stat that correlates more to winning than turnovers,” Belichick said. “So points is No. 1. Turnovers is No. 2. Third down and red area are also critical. I think when you look at those four aspects, generally speaking, that usually tells the story”

 

[Ring 6]

You also posted that the Pats ranked 17th in offensive turnovers, they rank 23rd in fumbles lost. This along with untimely penalties and poor blocking early in the season tells the entire story. The Patriots offense checked down often in 2001 and won a championship.

The Pats offense (per drive) ranks 6th in points scored and 11th in yards, they rank 10th best in third down conversions. They're a good offense when they're not shooting themselves in the foot.

If you want an echo chamber where nobody disagrees with you, posting this on a public forum discussing Patriots football is probably not the way to achieve it.

“Look, there’s no stat that correlates more to winning than turnovers,” Belichick said. “So points is No. 1. Turnovers is No. 2. Third down and red area are also critical. I think when you look at those four aspects, generally speaking, that usually tells the story”

Spare me the attitude.
A post like this is fine and contributes to the discussion. The previous one did not and you know that.
I stared all along turnovers matter. But if you can’t see that the issues I highlighted have been major issues in close games against good teams, I don’t know what to tell you. Football teams don’t game plan with “don’t make mistakes, nothing else matters”

 

[Wozzy]

Spare me the attitude.
A post like this is fine and contributes to the discussion. The previous one did not and you know that.
I stared all along turnovers matter. But if you can’t see that the issues I highlighted have been major issues in close games against good teams, I don’t know what to tell you. Football teams don’t game plan with “don’t make mistakes, nothing else matters”

What attitude? Disagreeing that "checking down too soon" is a problem is not attitude.

Let me put it in another way that's easier to digest, in seven losses this season the Patriots have turned the ball over 16 times, two turnovers in every loss except two games where they had three. This doesn't include blocked punts which, at least in the Dallas game, was caused by the offense taking too long to decide whether they'd go for a fourth down conversion and giving the punt unit no time to set up.

In ten victories this season the offense turned it over 7 times. Only two victories this season came when the offense turned it over twice, the Panthers and the Texans, against the Panther the Patriots defense forced them into three turnovers. So the Patriots only won two games this year when they turned it over more than once. In the remaining eight victories they only turned it over three times, once in each game and five games with no turnovers.

And yes, football teams do their best to not make mistakes and execute at a high level. This team has been inconsistent, mistake prone, has caused untimely penalties at the worst times, has turned it over entirely too much and at bad times, they miss blocking assignments or jump offsides... when none of this is happening is when they accumulated stats which made them a top scoring unit in the NFL. There's no secret sauce to be found here, they need to play smarter and protect the ball better.

 

[captain stone]

To boil it all down…

Offense - Shaky O-Line and no big play potential

Defense - Poor run stopping and can’t get off the field when they must make a stop

Special Teams - Worst I’ve seen in the Belichick era

Bumped for Truth.

 

[captain stone]

Mac has gotten a lot worse the last few games. We will see if he starts conservative again, or where he left off from the Miami game.

fify

 

[PatsFan2]

Final roster lacked a playmaking WR we are too hit and more miss on 3rd and 3 or more. Hope we play like we have nothing to lose and please BB don't dress Harry tonight.

 

[captain stone]

Thank you for the tremendous research. I suspect that some of this will be discussed for months.

I disagree with your conclusion. I don't think that 6th in scoring and 10th in passing and rushing is necessarily a 12 win team, especially when the team is average in turnovers. What were we in penalties? I think that the team needs to be much better in the passing game. That being said, we were close to having an offense good enough for a 12 win season this year. Better play by special teams and couple of defensive stops might have been enough.

My bottom line on top offense is that when we are down 3 and have the ball with 2 minutes to go, I expected to be favored to win.
=========================
When you look at the season, offensively they are:
6th in scoring
17th in turnovers
2nd in % of drives resulting in points
10th in 3rd down conversions
11th in red zone TD % (but #1 since the 2/8 start in weeks 1-3
Balnaced, 8th in rushing, 14th in passing (probably would be more like 10 and 10 without the 3 pass game anomaly)
6 in time of possession

Statistically that looks like an offense that would be a 12-5, 13-4 team

If the offense, defense, special olympics teams AND coaching hadn't each taken turns soiling themselves during the losses to Miami x 2, Indy & Dallas, then this indeed would've been a 12-5 team...and the #1 seed in the conference.