AFC Watch

[RelocatedPatFan]

AFC EAST
After 6 weeks, we have a 4 way tie for first place. Or, a 3 way tie for last place if you believe (like me) that the Patriots are still the class of the AFCE.

Front Runner: New England 3 Wins, 3 Loss
Current Identity = Great Offense, Defense could cost them the post season
Future Identity = Mental lapses on both sides hurt them. Expect BB to have them focused and get their swagger back by lighting up the Jets.
Trending = Slightly Lower, but forecasted for up. Looked bad losing to Seattle and got a few players banged up. Bye week on the horizon and no major injuries.

Why New England? So many reason, but their losses have been by a combined 4 points and their mistakes can be fixed. They may lack a defensive secondary, but it can only get better and there's still plenty og youth on this team. I expect a team that will continue to develop and will have seasoned players by season end.

I think little of the Jets, even less as they lost their best receiver and Revis is gone for the season. Buffalo just seems to have negative synergy and until they turn it around, they seem just what they are. a .500 team. Miami seems to have some potential and could be in play for a wild card


AFC NORTH
Baltimore definitely seems to be in command of the division. But a couple injuries on defense have set them bad. Veteran leader Ray Lewis and CB Ladarius Webb lost of the season. That's a hugeblow to any defense and Suggs won't be due back for a bit (and will he be explosive when he does). Pittsburgh is stumbling with a 2-3 record and Cincy has quiety done fairly well at 3-3.

Front Runner: Baltimore 5 Wins, 1 Loss
Current Identity = Drivers Seat and looking good for a bye if the defense can handle the loss of 2 starters.
Future Identity = Let’s wait and see what the Houston game holds. But, a shift has already happened in Baltimore, they are better offensively than defensively.
Trending = Up for record, down for a rash of imjuries. if the next man up isn't up to the task, the defense can slide toward away from mediocre to bad.


AFC SOUTH
Not much to comment on this division. Crown the Texans as this has to be the worst division in the NFL. I don't think the Colts/Titans/Jaguars will get to a total of 16 wins combined (and they automatically get 6 wins by playing each other).

Front Runner: Houston 5 Wins, 1 Loss
Current Identity = Team to beat in the AFC
Future Identity = A win makes then the favorites. A loss means they bye week has competition
Trending = Slightly down. Lost a stalwart defender in Cushing and got embarrassed by a Green Bay team who's backs were up agaisnt the wall. (I trried to warn them)


AFC WEST
San Diego could have set themselves up nicely by taking a lead on the division. But, something happened in the 2nd half of that game. Peyton Manning went in there, stole their lunch money, their girlfriend and I think I saw River's dog jump into the back of Mannings truck on the way out of California.

Front Runner: San Diego/Denver pick'em at 3-3
Current Identity = San Diego, What is their identity | Traditionally a slow starter, they could break the mold OR not. Denver - Is Manning all the way MVP
Future identity = Will be forged on the field.
Trending = Good football to watch

Wild Cards
Front Runner: Denver/San Diego -- whichever one loses the division
Mid Runner: Miami -- Time will tell, they have to face the cold season. May need to build up a couple extra wins
Can take a shot: Cincy

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Last Week:

Disclaimer: I'm aware that any record after the next 2 weeks can be misleading, but let's get the predictions on

AFC
In short, the conference seems to be a 4 team race. 2 other teams will have a shot to make it to the pos season, but no teams really stand out. sure, cincy is 3-2, but do you trust them? Could miami make a move? I think the only real compeition will be thse 2 spots, the rest feel like solid picks. Pittsburgh lost more thaqn a game Thursday. They lost half their offensive line. Getting to the post season will require some healthy bodies. Still plenty of time for them to turn it around, but it has to be in the next week or two -- max.

Houston
Current Identity = Team to beat in the AFC
Future Identity = Same. They are still the most balanced team (unless they lose 2)
Trending = No where to go but down. They appear to be well rounded and the real deal

Hosting a potentially dangerous Green Bay (they almost have nothing to lose and need to save their season. A win here makes them legitimate) team followed by Baltimore. We already know what they are, but if they win these 2 games, people will start talking about the perfect season and maybe with reason. Still, they still have a potential gauntlet to get through and this will be a highly tested group by the end of the season. Beating Baltimore means they’d have a leg up on them in the AFC.

Baltimore
Current Identity = Drivers Seat, but still need to prove they are the class of the AFC
Future Identity = Let’s wait and see what the Houston game holds. But, a shift has already happened in Baltimore, they are better offensively than defensively.

Hosting a Dallas team that appears to be dead to the work. But this is a sporadic Dallas team. Capable of play from abysmal to elite (for 1 game only, they aren’t consistent enough to be classified as elite). The week after they head to Houston. A win vs Dallas proves little. A win over Houston puts them in a good place.

New England
Current Identity = Great Offense, Defense could cost them the post season
Future Identity = With the offense getting healthy, will anything change? Could they be more dangerous than what they are currently?. That’s a real scary prospect. Especially with a young defensive team that shows it can improve.

At Seattle and then hosting a lackluster and gimpy NY Jets team. Let’s forget about the Jets, unless something drastic happens, the AFCE is locked up with the Patriots at the top. For Seattle, this can be a pivotal moment where their already ranked #1 defense can look and say, we beat a top NFL offense. This makes them legitimate. If the Patriots can go on the road to the West Coast and pull out an impressive victory, they will be in a position to battle for the bye. They’ll need help as Baltimore has the 1 game edge on them.

San Diego
Current Identity = What is their identity | Traditionally a slow starter, they could break the mold
Future identity = In control of the division with a fighting chance for a bye

Notorious slow starter is sitting at 3-2 Hosting division foe Denver. This game can literally send them in 2 directions. A Win puts them in a good place to potentially contend for a bye or at the very least hosting a playoff game. A loss sends them to the middle of the pack, still looking good for the playoffs, but not much chance of getting a bye. They have a bye week with the following 3 weeks against some very beatable teams.

NFC
Not going to do any breakdown, but the Giants @ 49ers is must see football this weekend. Should be smash mouth defensive football with enough offense to keep it all very entertaining. A win or loss can help or hurt as it’s a conference game, but it may not settle anything for the long term. But both teams are in the same position. Leading their division, but tied as well.

For San Fran, they share the lead with Arizona who hosts Buffalo. Should we go ahead and count that as a win for the Cardinals?

For the Giants, the Eagles have a matchup with the car swiping Suh and the rest of the Detroit Lions. This is an out of conference game so a loss wouldn’t sting as much.

 

[ausbacker]

The NFC appears to be filled with teams that are considerably better than teams in the AFC at present. It should be interesting to see if that form holds.

 

[jmt57]

I think it's way too soon to exclude Pittsburgh from at least being mentioned as a wild card contender, especially when you consider the state of their competition within the conference.

For that matter you probably should include the Jets as well; they came out of a difficult early season schedule with three wins and have a much easier schedule the rest of the way out.

Somebody will win those two wild card spots and there's not enough of a difference between those five teams (Chargers, Bengals, Dolphins, Steelers, Jets) to exclude any one of them as a possible playoff team at this point in my opinion.


In the NFC you could potentially end up with both wild cards from the NFC North.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I think it's way too soon to exclude Pittsburgh from at least being mentioned as a wild card contender, especially when you consider the state of their competition within the conference.

True, but their Oline is in trouble (injuries) and they had issues before. An aging defense, though getting Polamalu back will help. Still, with Cincy above them, I'm going to need to see more because it looks like they will need help.

If they can show me sothing, I'll see if i can put them back on in good faith.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Baltimore is going to plummet behind Cincy and maybe Pittsburgh too, IMO. They have been very fortunate in most of their wins. They needed some good luck to hold on vs. Cleveland, even. That tends to even out over time, and the recent injuries are devastating.

 

[IllegalContact]

only 2 teams in the AFC have winning record.....and both of those teams defenses are also reeling

the bears *cough cough - jay cutler - cough cough* appear to be the mos dominant team in the NFC (I'm not buying the falcons)

 

[Kontradiction]

The NFC appears to be filled with teams that are considerably better than teams in the AFC at present. It should be interesting to see if that form holds.

The balance of power was shifting back to the NFC after Super Bowl XLII. It's funny in their corner now. Their good teams are young and promising after having drafted at the bottom of the order for so many years. The AFC is getting older.

 

[Kontradiction]

Baltimore is going to plummet behind Cincy and maybe Pittsburgh too, IMO. They have been very fortunate in most of their wins. They needed some good luck to hold on vs. Cleveland, even. That tends to even out over time, and the recent injuries are devastating.

Not so sure about Pittsburgh. Father Time has caught up to that defense and, without Polamalu, they look pretty bad.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Baltimore is going to plummet behind Cincy and maybe Pittsburgh too, IMO. They have been very fortunate in most of their wins. They needed some good luck to hold on vs. Cleveland, even. That tends to even out over time, and the recent injuries are devastating.

I don't see the Ravens plummeting as you say,the North division has a Pittsburgh team that has shown little memories of a vaunted defense and even their running game which is their bread and butter is not very good,The Bengals are who we think they are....the Bungles never hit the high note.

The Ravens will probably win that division by 2 games at least even without Lewis and Webb because the North is simply soft.

 

[Rob0729]

The perceived three top teams in the AFC are all very flawed right now.

Both the Pats and Texans have horrible secondaries right now. We know the Pats' problems, but the most underplayed story the last two weeks is how bad the Texans' secondary has played the last two games. I don't buy the whole "they just ran into an angry Packers" crap. Their secondary sucked against the Jets too, but Sanchez just couldn't exploit it. There were receivers with five yard cushions all game.

Baltimore didn't have a great defense before losing Webb and Lewis. Even with Suggs returning, I don't think he brings a major improvement. A player has never returned from an Achilles tear in less than a year and Suggs will probably not have the explosiveness he has had in the past. Probably not even close.

I think the AFC is wide open. I wouldn't be surprised if any of these teams are the #1 seed come January or another team like the Bengals or Broncos. The power is in the NFC right now.