AFC Playoffs Scenarios

[dannydyn]

This is nothing to do with last night’s loss… I’m ‘going on a limp’ here and assume we get the W next week. With regards to the other match-ups we should be watching for, there are some intriguing scenarios I was curious to get everyone’s thoughts on:

Assuming the Jets (@ Buffalo) win next week, this essentially throws the Steelers out of the playoffs. Depending on how you look at it, we just got rid of a good offense in exchange for a good defense. If the Jets lose and the Steelers win, Steelers are in, and the Jets get to rotten in another regular season in the NFL’s yearbook. Having said that I have no reason to believe the Jets won’t take care of business next week, and stick it to Rex Ryan for the embarrassing loss they incurred in their own house earlier in the season.

Now, having covered the Jets/Steelers scenario, this leaves us with the Bengals @ Broncos match up tonight at Mile High. I’m not concerned with the implication of that game on our own seeding as we control our own destiny and I assume we will make smoked salmon out of the Dolphins next week. IMO this match up bears more important implications with regards to the lower seeding in the conference, and who we might end up facing in the divisional round.

I ran a few scenarios through the playoffs machine, and this is what I came up with:

Scenario 1: Broncos beat the Bengals
Theoretically, one would think we should be rooting for the Donkeys so they put the Bengals one game behind, but since we control our own destiny, and *should* take care of the Dolphins next week, I think it’s a moot point from that perspective. However, if Denver wins tonight, it puts the Chiefs in the #5 slot, in which they will face the Texans (#4) – I expect the Chiefs to take care of the Texans without much of a problem. That means we will face the Chiefs in the divisional round assuming the Jets (#6) lose to the Bengals (#3). Not an ideal scenario if you ask me. If there are two teams I would like to avoid in the divisional round it’s the Jets and the Chiefs – pick your poison. I’m not saying we automatically lose to either one of them, if healthy probably not. But we are not 100% healthy (not even in the playoffs), and so out of the 6 teams, the Jets and Chiefs defenses are a recipe for disaster for us. We just don’t match up well against them – or at least not as good as we match with the others.

As for the Steelers, they’d need the Jets to lose and they’d need to win. In this case, again, see scenario 1 above. Steelers with the #6 will go into Cinci and should beat the Bengals. The Chiefs (#5) would travel to Houston, where I believe they will prevail. The aforementioned scenario in turn, sends the Steelers to Foxboro for the divisional round – Again, not ideal for us… The Chiefs go to Denver, where they have already proven they can take care of business. If they beat Denver, we get the Steelers as an appetizer and the Chiefs for main course – personally, I don’t like that meal one bit (there may not be any dessert in this meal, if you know what I mean).


Scenario 2: Bengals beat the Broncos
Now, onto the unlikely scenario (and the preferred one as far I’m concerned): Bengals somehow manage to overcome Denver tonight…. This drops Denver all the way to the #6 slot, and sends them on a one-way ticket to Arrow Head (while promoting the Chiefs to the #3 spot and essentially eliminating the possibility of a match up in Foxboro in the divisional round). I’d expect the Donkeys to get their a55es raped at Arrow Head for yet another one-and-done season. Meanwhile the Jets (#5) will travel to Houston(#4), and hopefully ‘report a problem’ encountering the Texans. This in turn will send the Chiefs (#3) to Cinci (#2) for the divisional round, and we get the Texans (#4) or the Jets (#6) should they prevail. Either way, I think this is a better scenario as far as the Pats are concerned.

Lastly, should the Jets lose and the Steelers (#6) get in, they get to take a trip to KC (#3), where I believe the Chiefs D will end their playoffs aspirations as well. Denver (#5) will travel to Houston (#4), where I believe they win (don’t see Houston’s offense taking care of business against the Broncos’ defense). This in turn sends KC (#3) to Cinci (#2) and the Broncos (#5) to Foxboro – much better outcome.


In summary, if fully healthy and playing at home throughout the playoffs, we *should* be able to take care of anyone. Having said that, a little help from the side never hurt anyone. If I had to rank the match ups from most favorable to least:

1. Texans
2. Bengals
3. Broncos
4. Jets
5. Steelers/Chiefs

I know it’s a long shot, but I’ll be rooting for the Bengals tonight as this sets up the most favorable scenario for us IMO.

Thoughts?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The Chiefs are the same old losers with Smith and Reid. They've just played a cake schedule. Chiefs and Texans are not real playoff caliber teams. Steelers, Jets, and Broncos are all good for different reasons. Bengals, too, but only if they have Dalton.

 

[dannydyn]

The Chiefs are the same old losers with Smith and Reid. They've just played a cake schedule. Chiefs and Texans are not real playoff caliber teams. Steelers, Jets, and Broncos are all good for different reasons. Bengals, too, but only if they have Dalton.

The Chiefs killed the Broncos a few week ago AT Mile High. I wouldn't underestimate them. They have the exact type of defense against we do not match up well.

 

[The Brandon Five]

This is nothing to do with last night’s loss… I’m ‘going on a limp’ here and assume we get the W next week. With regards to the other match-ups we should be watching for, there are some intriguing scenarios I was curious to get everyone’s thoughts on:

Assuming the Jets (@ Buffalo) win next week, this essentially throws the Steelers out of the playoffs. Depending on how you look at it, we just got rid of a good offense in exchange for a good defense. If the Jets lose and the Steelers win, Steelers are in, and the Jets get to rotten in another regular season in the NFL’s yearbook. Having said that I have no reason to believe the Jets won’t take care of business next week, and stick it to Rex Ryan for the embarrassing loss they incurred in their own house earlier in the season.

Now, having covered the Jets/Steelers scenario, this leaves us with the Bengals @ Broncos match up tonight at Mile High. I’m not concerned with the implication of that game on our own seeding as we control our own destiny and I assume we will make smoked salmon out of the Dolphins next week. IMO this match up bears more important implications with regards to the lower seeding in the conference, and who we might end up facing in the divisional round.

I ran a few scenarios through the playoffs machine, and this is what I came up with:

Scenario 1: Broncos beat the Bengals
Theoretically, one would think we should be rooting for the Donkeys so they put the Bengals one game behind, but since we control our own destiny, and *should* take care of the Dolphins next week, I think it’s a moot point from that perspective. However, if Denver wins tonight, it puts the Chiefs in the #5 slot, in which they will face the Texans (#4) – I expect the Chiefs to take care of the Texans without much of a problem. That means we will face the Chiefs in the divisional round assuming the Jets (#6) lose to the Bengals (#3). Not an ideal scenario if you ask me. If there are two teams I would like to avoid in the divisional round it’s the Jets and the Chiefs – pick your poison. I’m not saying we automatically lose to either one of them, if healthy probably not. But we are not 100% healthy (not even in the playoffs), and so out of the 6 teams, the Jets and Chiefs defenses are a recipe for disaster for us. We just don’t match up well against them – or at least not as good as we match with the others.

As for the Steelers, they’d need the Jets to lose and they’d need to win. In this case, again, see scenario 1 above. Steelers with the #6 will go into Cinci and should beat the Bengals. The Chiefs (#5) would travel to Houston, where I believe they will prevail. The aforementioned scenario in turn, sends the Steelers to Foxboro for the divisional round – Again, not ideal for us… The Chiefs go to Denver, where they have already proven they can take care of business. If they beat Denver, we get the Steelers as an appetizer and the Chiefs for main course – personally, I don’t like that meal one bit (there may not be any dessert in this meal, if you know what I mean).


Scenario 2: Bengals beat the Broncos
Now, onto the unlikely scenario (and the preferred one as far I’m concerned): Bengals somehow manage to overcome Denver tonight…. This drops Denver all the way to the #6 slot, and sends them on a one-way ticket to Arrow Head (while promoting the Chiefs to the #3 spot and essentially eliminating the possibility of a match up in Foxboro in the divisional round). I’d expect the Donkeys to get their a55es raped at Arrow Head for yet another one-and-done season. Meanwhile the Jets (#5) will travel to Houston(#4), and hopefully ‘report a problem’ encountering the Texans. This in turn will send the Chiefs (#3) to Cinci (#2) for the divisional round, and we get the Texans (#4) or the Jets (#6) should they prevail. Either way, I think this is a better scenario as far as the Pats are concerned.

Lastly, should the Jets lose and the Steelers (#6) get in, they get to take a trip to KC (#3), where I believe the Chiefs D will end their playoffs aspirations as well. Denver (#5) will travel to Houston (#4), where I believe they win (don’t see Houston’s offense taking care of business against the Broncos’ defense). This in turn sends KC (#3) to Cinci (#2) and the Broncos (#5) to Foxboro – much better outcome.


In summary, if fully healthy and playing at home throughout the playoffs, we *should* be able to take care of anyone. Having said that, a little help from the side never hurt anyone. If I had to rank the match ups from most favorable to least:

1. Texans
2. Bengals
3. Broncos
4. Jets
5. Steelers/Chiefs

I know it’s a long shot, but I’ll be rooting for the Bengals tonight as this sets up the most favorable scenario for us IMO.

Thoughts?

While we are banged up on both sides, I think the O is a little more banged up than the D overall. Thus, I think matchups with good defenses would be more problematic than with good offenses. (Some snow would help).

Here are the Total Defense and Total Offense rankings of each:

Team D Rank O Rank
Cin 3 20
Den 1 29
Hou 4 19
KC 9 24
NE 8 4
NYJ 7 8
Pitt 23 3

Looking at those rankings, I'd say the Jets are the most balanced of the possible opponents. Of course the numbers for Denver and Cincy would look different had the current QB's been in place all season, and Pitt's #3 ranking is despite Big Ben missing four games.

My take is that the opposition in the NFC is better than any of themmso if we think we can't beat any of these teams what would happen in the SB?

 

[upstater1]

No one scares me. Patriots with Edelman, Amendola and Vollmer back beat everyone.

Brady is playing out of his mind right now.

Jets don't scare me, nor Texans. Broncos a little but only at Denver. Cincy scares me just a little more. Steelers with Antonio Brown is always a wildcard. Maybe Chiefs scare me because they are a total unknown at this point BUT Andy Reid.

Only the Seahawks, Cardinals and Panthers scare me. But luckily, and with luck, New England will only face one of them.

 

[SVN]

Barnwell: The not-so-crazy Super Bowl hopes of the Chiefs

 

[denverpatsfan]

That Chiefs defense is very good. Good enough to give our depleted O-line fits. Alex Smith on the otherhand is terrible. His last 2-months non-withstanding. Fitzpatrick is a much tougher match-up than Smith.

Barring some kind of injury to Brock I don't see how the Bengals can win tonite.

 

[dannydyn]

No one scares me. Patriots with Edelman, Amendola and Vollmer back beat everyone.

Brady is playing out of his mind right now.

Jets don't scare me, nor Texans. Broncos a little but only at Denver. Cincy scares me just a little more. Steelers with Antonio Brown is always a wildcard. Maybe Chiefs scare me because they are a total unknown at this point BUT Andy Reid.

Only the Seahawks, Cardinals and Panthers scare me. But luckily, and with luck, New England will only face one of them.

So which one is it? Scared or not scared?

 

[upstater1]

So which one is it? Scared or not scared?

Not scared. A little means basically not.

 

[lurker1965]

Although arguably I'd want the Texans, that means they beat the Chiefs/Jets/Steelers/Broncos (whomever). Whomever makes it would be coming off a win over a playoff team. I guess theoretically I want the team that beat "only" the Texans.

 

[goheels22002]

Since the Bengals coughed up a fur ball in Denver. it looks like the Chiefs get the top wild card and the Texans in the wild card round. The Jets will travel to Cincy where the best QB on the field will be Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I'd say it's 50-50 whether the Patriots play the Chiefs or Jets at home. I like this set up. A good story line and pay back in both cases.