AFC Playoff Teams

[PatsFanSince74]

If the season ended today, these would be the AFC Playoff seeds. Seeds could move around based on tonight's game, but the teams would remain the same).
1. Patriots (even if the Bengals win tonight)
2. Bengals
3. Broncos
4. Texans
5. Chiefs
6. Jets

We all know from painful experience that teams that are hot at the end of the regular season tend to do well in the Playoffs, so I looked at what each of these teams have done over the past five weeks (back to week 12). I use "average" points because the Bengals and Broncos have played four games instead of five over the last five weeks.

Team W-L Record Average Points Scored Average Points Given Up Average Margin of Victory

Pats: 2--3: 26.4 Points Scored, 22.6 Points Given Up, 3.8 Margin of Victory

Bengals: 3--1: 28.0 Points Scored, 14.3 Points Given Up, 13.7 Margin of Victory

Broncos: 2--2: 21.5 Points Scored, 19.0 Points Given Up, 2.5 Margin of Victory

Texans: 3--2: 20.2 Points Scored, 15.8 Points Given Up, 4.4 Margin of Victory

Chiefs: 5--0: 25.0 Points Scored, 14.4 Points Given Up, 10.6 Margin of Victory

Jets: 5--0: 27.2 Points Scored, 16.8 Points Given Up, 10.4 Margin of Victory

I guess the glass is half empty or half full for the Pats. They've overcome absurd injuries and are still in the middle of the group in terms of Points Scored, but dead last in terms of Points Given Up. They're the only team with a losing record (unless the Broncos lose tonight).

The two Wild Card teams have the hot hands (undefeated) and their average margin of victory has been over 10 points. The Bengals have averaged the most points scored and have the second lowest number of points given up for a 13.7 point margin of victory.

This all suggests that the Playoffs will come down to Home Field and intangibles for the Pats. I wouldn't want the team that played yesterday to have to beat any of these teams on the road...even the Bungles.

Brady is their biggest intangible, but they have to get some weapons healthy fast and hope that the O-Line can protect him...which it definitely wasn't doing yesterday.

I still see them in San Francisco, but I think we're going to have some white knuckle moments getting there.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

We all know from painful experience that teams that are hot at the end of the regular season tend to do well in the Playoffs

This is not true. Multiple studies have disproven it.

 

[mosslost]

Just beat Miami. We get some guys back hopefully. Two home games to the SB. If we are not in the SB I think it will be Jets or KC. Can't stand the thought of the Jets being in the SB. The Patriot injuries have really turned this AFC year into an opportunity year for these teams that get in. Only the Jets or KC could upset us in NE from those teams. HFA is critical for the Pats this year. It is a must have. I see the Divisional game likely being KC or Jets. I think whoever end ups with 3rd seed is one and done. 4th seed definitely one and done.

 

[dannydyn]

Just beat Miami. We get some guys back hopefully. Two home games to the SB. If we are not in the SB I think it will be Jets or KC. Can't stand the thought of the Jets being in the SB. The Patriot injuries have really turned this AFC year into an opportunity year for these teams that get in. Only the Jets or KC could upset us in NE from those teams. HFA is critical for the Pats this year. It is a must have. I see the Divisional game likely being KC or Jets. I think whoever end ups with 3rd seed is one and done. 4th seed definitely one and done.

No way Fitz takes them to the Superbowl. Looking like Montana against our injured defense (Which isn't great in the secondary to begin with), is not the same as trying to pass against the Chiefs or Broncos. Jets aren't going anywhere. And they'd first need to beat the Bills next week to be even in the conversation.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is not true. Multiple studies have disproven it.

My "study" of the 2007 and 2011 seasons suggests otherwise.

 

[JMC00]

My "study" of the 2007 and 2011 seasons suggests otherwise.

'07 Giants were 3-3 over their last 6 games
'11 Giants were 3-5 over their last 8 games

So not sure what study you did

 

[mosslost]

My "study" of the 2007 and 2011 seasons suggests otherwise.

We were "Hot" in both those years as well. 18 straight wins.. and 10 straight wins...

 

[RIpats88]

Dolphins just lost to the colts 3rd string qb...i say we beat them handily.

Its also something to note that the offense we put out there against the jets will not be the offense in the divisional round. We will look alot different with edelman and amendola back on offense, and mccourty and Chung on defense

For all the injuries we have overcome, the positive is none so far are season ending and we should be close to healthy for the playoffs

 

[mosslost]

'07 Giants were 3-3 over their last 6 games
'11 Giants were 3-5 over their last 8 games

So not sure what study you did

Exactly... By those standards basically you would have to say that any team in the Super Bowl is hot,, since they won 2 or 3 playoff games in a row.

 

[JMC00]

(Which isn't great in the secondary to begin with),

You say that like you are calling it a bad secondary

 

[mosslost]

No way Fitz takes them to the Superbowl. Looking like Montana against our injured defense (Which isn't great in the secondary to begin with), is not the same as trying to pass against the Chiefs or Broncos. Jets aren't going anywhere. And they'd first need to beat the Bills next week to be even in the conversation.

I hope you are right. I hate the concept of their fans even getting to enjoy an appearance even if Carolina or Arizona smokes them. (or Seattle though their stock dropped yesterday dome.. probably wont matter though)

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

No way Fitz takes them to the Superbowl. Looking like Montana against our injured defense (Which isn't great in the secondary to begin with), is not the same as trying to pass against the Chiefs or Broncos. Jets aren't going anywhere. And they'd first need to beat the Bills next week to be even in the conversation.

Defense can still carry teams. I wouldn't bet on the jets being in the superbowl but
you just never know.

 

[dannydyn]

You say that like you are calling it a bad secondary

Average

 

[brdmaverick]

I think getting Edelman and Amendola back will make all the difference (especially Edelman). Edelman and Amendola obviously can both can not only get open BUT quickly.....that will allow us to hide our O-line woes. Plus, they'll free up Gronk a bit as well to the point in which all three can be effective.

 

[brdmaverick]

But what is amazing is that usually in the playoffs you get great QB matchups.

Here are the potential QBs in this year's AFC bracket.

Tom Brady
AJ McCarron
Brock Osweiler
Brandon Weeden
Alex Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Yikes, no Big Ben, no Peyton, no Luck? Not what the league/advertisers want.

 

[JMC00]

Average

top 10 pass defense in the league isn't average.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

'07 Giants were 3-3 over their last 6 games
'11 Giants were 3-5 over their last 8 games

So not sure what study you did

The 2011 Giants finished the regular season 3--1.
The 2007 Giants finished 3--2, losing their final game to the 16--0 Pat juggernaut by just three points.
However, both teams were playing very well over the last month.
But, if your point is that this is all relative, I would concede that point.

 

[dannydyn]

top 10 pass defense in the league isn't average.

Our excellent front 7 skews it to the better. I can say however, that this game would have ended differently had we had McCourty and Chung back there.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Most of the teams that get into the postseason are "hot" because you're not usually going to make it if you have a bad stretch at the end of the year. I can think of a lot of teams that made it to the Super Bowl despite playing subpar football towards the end of the season.

2013 Seahawks (SB Champs) finished on a 2-2 run, including a home loss to AZ.

2012 Ravens (SB Champs) maybe the best example because they were playing so poorly that everyone wrote them off. They went 1-4 down the stretch and nearly missed the playoffs altogether.

2012 49ers (NFC Champs) went 3-2 down the stretch.

2011 Giants (SB Champs) 3-5 second half of season including a four game losing streak in November-December.

2010 Packers (SB Champs) 3-3 in their last six.

2009 Saints (SB Champs) 0-3 to close out the season, although they were partially resting starters for the last two. Still hard to call them "hot."

2009 Colts (AFC Champs) 0-2 on account of resting starters, but like with the Saints, hard to call them a hot team.

2008 Cardinals (NFC Champs) 2-4 in their last six including the infamous 47-7 shellacking at New England in week 16.

2007 Giants (SB Champs) 1-2 in their last three games, despite fighting for the division title.

2006 Colts (SB Champs) 3-4 in their last seven games, missed out on a bye due to their huge regression.


So, by my count, that's 10 of the last 18 conference champions that were "backing into the playoffs." Even if you take out the 2009 Saints and Colts, the two teams who were on there due to pulling starters, that's still 8 out of 18.

 

[SVN]

jets and kc are the wild cards from the pats perspective. their Dlines vs our olines can be a big factor. Plus divisional opponents are always tricky .