A Tale of Two Drafts: 2007 & 2008

[Deus Irae]

You're right - OTOH, when we use that pick Bradley's rookie contract will be half over. In these days of short contracts after Round 1, there is some value to spreading out their usage to keep this baby going. That 2009 2nd round pick will have 2 years left on his rookie contract when Bradley hits FA.

Regarding this pick, does anyone know what's expected from next year's ILB crop?

 

[patchick]

I think they should have traded all of their picks that were not

compensatory.

OK, and looking back on your initial post I see you feel they should have traded them to move up in round 1, meaning you don't care for Meriweather -- the only man left standing from that draft! (Doesn't that show just how weak the draft was?) Honestly, trading the remaining day-2 junk wasn't going to get you far in round 1.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

turning a 2007 3rd in a 2009 2nd isn't exactly minting money, you know?

But that wasn't the deal. It was 2007 3rd for 2007 7th + 2008 5th + 2009 2nd. I'm not going to argue that the addition of a 7th and 5th make this the best. deal. ever., but it's not quite as bad as it looks at first blush. Plus don't forget that it seriously dents a key rival's ability to enter the RFA market next offseason (the only way they can sign an RFA tendered to a second-rounder is to offer their first, or to acquire a higher first than whichever one they "should have" had).

 

[BPF]

Regarding this pick, does anyone know what's expected from next year's ILB crop?

Of course you have James Laurinaitis from Ohio State and Rey Maualuga from USC as projected top 10 picks, 2nd Rd and 3rd Rd look solid as well: There's Darry Beckwith from LSU, projected late 1st early 2nd. There's Brandon Spikes from Florida same spot projection. Dannell Ellerbe from Georgia is a 2nd to 3rd Rd projection at this time as is Scott McKillop from Pittsburgh. Daniel Holtzclaw from Eastern Michigan is projected to go in the 3rd/4th Rd at this time as is Josh Mauga from Nevada. Some good depth for ILB.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course you have James Laurinaitis from Ohio State and Rey Maualuga from USC as projected top 10 picks, 2nd Rd and 3rd Rd look solid as well: There's Darry Beckwith from LSU, projected late 1st early 2nd. There's Brandon Spikes from Florida same spot projection. Dannell Ellerbe from Georgia is a 2nd to 3rd Rd projection at this time as is Scott McKillop from Pittsburgh. Daniel Holtzclaw from Eastern Michigan is projected to go in the 3rd/4th Rd at this time as is Josh Mauga from Nevada. Some good depth for ILB.

Thanks. My thoughts after Mayo was drafted went along the lines of the team using another high pick next year to complete the Seau/Bruschi replacement. Apparently, if you're correct (and I'm not doubting that you are), that notion actually has some potential.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think its a commonly accepted theme to let three years go by before judging a draft. The fact that BB/SP sold out of the 07 draft will likely be a standard by which thier drafting talents will be measured. Getting Moss and Welker(and thier salaries) for draft picks is not a apples=apples arguement. I think if you take the picks, and add a FA or 2 that would add up to that $$(4M for Welker, and I think it was 4M for Moss) that would make a fair arguement.
So, lets say you kept the 2nd and 3rd and spent $7M(say a LB like Suggs or a WR like Chad Johnson) on a FA......would THAT be better than Moss and Welker?? I am not sure myself, but I have to agree that I like the players and they worked out well in our system.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think its a commonly accepted theme to let three years go by before judging a draft. The fact that BB/SP sold out of the 07 draft will likely be a standard by which thier drafting talents will be measured. Getting Moss and Welker(and thier salaries) for draft picks is not a apples=apples arguement. I think if you take the picks, and add a FA or 2 that would add up to that $$(4M for Welker, and I think it was 4M for Moss) that would make a fair arguement.
So, lets say you kept the 2nd and 3rd and spent $7M(say a LB like Suggs or a WR like Chad Johnson) on a FA......would THAT be better than Moss and Welker?? I am not sure myself, but I have to agree that I like the players and they worked out well in our system.

Greatest scoring offense in NFL history.

 

[unoriginal]

But that wasn't the deal. It was 2007 3rd for 2007 7th + 2008 5th + 2009 2nd. I'm not going to argue that the addition of a 7th and 5th make this the best. deal. ever., but it's not quite as bad as it looks at first blush. Plus don't forget that it seriously dents a key rival's ability to enter the RFA market next offseason (the only way they can sign an RFA tendered to a second-rounder is to offer their first, or to acquire a higher first than whichever one they "should have" had).

I mentioned Oscar Lua and Slater in my two posts. My argument was players like Slater are much more easily found than mid-round 3-4 ILBs. I bet Mayo + Bradley + Bruschi sure would have looked nice this year.

As to your RFA point, I don't think that comes to bear on 4-year rookie contracts like 3rd rounders can sign. Unless its an uncapped year. Bradley signed a 4-year contract with the Eagles, btw. I believe that makes him a UFA when his contract is over with, pending any byzantine accrued season shenanigans.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Greatest scoring offense in NFL history.

Yes, but how much of that was drafting/talent evaluation and how much was coaching? It has been my contention that BB can beat them with our guys and might be able to beat US with THEIR GUYS! I think coaching has disguised some of the drafting for sure!

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, but how much of that was drafting/talent evaluation and how much was coaching? It has been my contention that BB can beat them with our guys and might be able to beat US with THEIR GUYS! I think coaching has disguised some of the drafting for sure!

Coaches don't win without talent. Naturally, good coaches tend to get more out of their players than bad coaches. That's why they're considered good coaches. However, the talent on this team is as good as any team in the league.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Coaches don't win without talent. Naturally, good coaches tend to get more out of their players than bad coaches. That's why they're considered good coaches. However, the talent on this team is as good as any team in the league.

My point was that we lost more talent than what we brought in. Yes, we still have plenty, but did the team do everything it could to keep as much as it could? The only thing for sure is that they are doing it completely different than they did last year. And I dont understand some of the decisions based on our success last year.....rookies are always a gamble, having this many rookies has to make anyone nervous. I think that without looking at numbers we should have had LESS rookies than most, considering our talent level last year. Having as many or more is very telling one way or another.

 

[Deus Irae]

My point was that we lost more talent than what we brought in. Yes, we still have plenty, but did the team do everything it could to keep as much as it could? The only thing for sure is that they are doing it completely different than they did last year. And I dont understand some of the decisions based on our success last year.....rookies are always a gamble, having this many rookies has to make anyone nervous. I think that without looking at numbers we should have had LESS rookies than most, considering our talent level last year. Having as many or more is very telling one way or another.

Other than Seau, who can still return, and Samuel, where is all this great lost talent?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I mentioned Oscar Lua and Slater in my two posts. My argument was players like Slater are much more easily found than mid-round 3-4 ILBs. I bet Mayo + Bradley + Bruschi sure would have looked nice this year.

As to your RFA point, I don't think that comes to bear on 4-year rookie contracts like 3rd rounders can sign. Unless its an uncapped year. Bradley signed a 4-year contract with the Eagles, btw. I believe that makes him a UFA when his contract is over with, pending any byzantine accrued season shenanigans.

No, it doesn't, but anyone signed to a 3-year contract, or any Welker-like players signed as UDFAs would be (e.g., Mike Wright this year).

 

[jeffbiologist]

Other than Seau, who can still return, and Samuel, where is all this great lost talent?

Samuel is a signficant loss, but not having a healthy equivalent to Colvin, Seau isnt here(as you pointed out), and I dont think RIGHT NOW that we upgraded a single position besides Jordan/Eckel. Mayo will likely be better than a 07 Seau in the long run, but with all the off season moves and all the transactions and drafting.....I simply dont see one position that we UPGRADED. Sure, we might have had a great draft, but I dont judge it til year 3 and I consider the number of starters who succeed.....not who are handed jobs because there wasnt competition(aka Mayo).
Last year we upgraded WR 1(Moss),2(Welker) and 3(Stallworth), LB(Thomas), backup safety(Merriweather), backup RB(Morris)....thats 5 positions. How many do you think we improved this year??

 

[Deus Irae]

Samuel is a signficant loss, but not having a healthy equivalent to Colvin, Seau isnt here(as you pointed out), and I dont think RIGHT NOW that we upgraded a single position besides Jordan/Eckel. Mayo will likely be better than a 07 Seau in the long run, but with all the off season moves and all the transactions and drafting.....I simply dont see one position that we UPGRADED. Sure, we might have had a great draft, but I dont judge it til year 3 and I consider the number of starters who succeed.....not who are handed jobs because there wasnt competition(aka Mayo).
Last year we upgraded WR 1(Moss),2(Welker) and 3(Stallworth), LB(Thomas), backup safety(Merriweather), backup RB(Morris)....thats 5 positions. How many do you think we improved this year??

Colvin was gone to IR last year. Again, where is the talent loss? You keep making an assertion that's just not correct, at least not provably so at this time. There has been a talent influx at RB and at Safety. You, meanwhile, are expecting an 18-1 team to put out half a dozen "upgrades". You're being unreasonable with your expectations.

 

[BadMoFo]

who gives a crap, i want results

 

[jeffbiologist]

Colvin was gone to IR last year. Again, where is the talent loss? You keep making an assertion that's just not correct. There has been a talent influx at RB and at Safety. You, meanwhile, are expecting an 18-1 team to put out half a dozen "upgrades". You're being unreasonable with your expectations.

We lost Colvin, and his talent hasnt been replaced. We lost Samuel,etc....now we have some nice rookies in the draft(maybe). Talent influx at RB?? We improved our 5th RB,yes, but not 1,2,3 or 4. We improved our 4th Safety,sure. But, as my point is made for me, we are worse/unproven at more positions now than at any other time in the BB era.

We are not as good at
3&4 WR
3rd TE
ILB(til Mayo is proven)
OLB(debatable on Crable's production)
CBs--multiple positions
OL backups

There is a good CHANCE that our backups have been improved except on the OL. We know backups are important because of the attrition. But health problems are always going to be there, making depth very important. We can safely say that our starting 22 arent likely going to be as good as they were last year. As a fan I always want to see my team improve no matter how difficult it is.....I think we all do.

 

[Deus Irae]

We lost Colvin, and his talent hasnt been replaced. We lost Samuel,etc....now we have some nice rookies in the draft(maybe). Talent influx at RB?? We improved our 5th RB,yes, but not 1,2,3 or 4. We improved our 4th Safety,sure. But, as my point is made for me, we are worse/unproven at more positions now than at any other time in the BB era.

We are not as good at
3&4 WR
3rd TE
ILB(til Mayo is proven)
OLB(debatable on Crable's production)
CBs--multiple positions
OL backups

There is a good CHANCE that our backups have been improved except on the OL. We know backups are important because of the attrition. But health problems are always going to be there, making depth very important. We can safely say that our starting 22 arent likely going to be as good as they were last year. As a fan I always want to see my team improve no matter how difficult it is.....I think we all do.

Brady was a disappointment at TE last season, so I don't see how you call that a downgrade. We don't know if ILB or CB are better, worse or a wash. The OLB position is better this year than last year, not worse. As for the OL backups, once Neal returns that argument disappears. As for the "always want to see....", again, that's just unreasonable.

Break it down.

QB - Wash to slight improvement, depending upon O'Connell's development
RB - Improvement with Jordan over Eckel
TE - Wash to better, depending upon Thomas
WR - Downgrade to upgrade, depending upon Jackson's progress
OL - Post Neal return, it should be a wash, prior to that, a downgrade

DL - improvement due to Seymour's health
LB - Unknown. More speed, less experience. If Seau returns, upgrade
S - Should be a definite, and significant, upgrade
CB - Likely a pretty big drop for the starters at the beginning of the season, with that gap likely closing over time. The nickel is unknown, but Gay struggled last year, and it shouldn't take much to improve upon his performance.

P/K - Wash

 

[piemonade]

I wonder what a Lions fan would think to hear some of you talking about not doing enough to improve the team. A 16-0 team that lost the superbowl by 3 points and broke so many records. I wonder what Lions fans think about a lot of things sometimes.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Brady was a disappointment at TE last season, so I don't see how you call that a downgrade. We don't know if ILB or CB are better, worse or a wash. The OLB position is better this year than last year, not worse. As for the OL backups, once Neal returns that argument disappears. As for the "always want to see....", again, that's just unreasonable.

Break it down.

QB - Wash to slight improvement, depending upon O'Connell's development
RB - Improvement with Jordan over Eckel
TE - Wash to better, depending upon Thomas
WR - Downgrade to upgrade, depending upon Jackson's progress
OL - Post Neal return, it should be a wash, prior to that, a downgrade

DL - improvement due to Seymour's health
LB - Unknown. More speed, less experience. If Seau returns, upgrade
S - Should be a definite, and significant, upgrade
CB - Likely a pretty big drop for the starters at the beginning of the season, with that gap likely closing over time. The nickel is unknown, but Gay struggled last year, and it shouldn't take much to improve upon his performance.

P/K - Wash

What I like to see as I pretend this is MY team,lol, is improvement. I understand you cant improve everywhere every year, and a "wash" is acceptable. Our results last year were outstanding, so I would like to see that management "style" continued....but I dont see the same "style". Favoring veterans over rookies got us to 16-0, and what I dont like to see is DOWNGRADES(= losses!).
On offense I mostly agree with you...but I see a significant loss in talent at WR. This will show if Welker or Moss go down for any significant amount of time. On the OL, I dont like the way that they approached the offseason at all. They stood pat(despite Neal and the super bowl!)and neither drafted nor signed a FA til camp casualties started to pile up....then too little too late.
On defense we do have a healthy Seymour, but we had basically 5 starting LBs last year. We lost 2 of them so we HAD to draft one due to the weakness in the FA market. HAVING to do this left us likely overdrafting and losing value in that high of a pick. Mayo will be highly scrutinized because of this. And if he is injured this season......moving Thomas back inside and starting Crable outside handcuffs us with another rookie. "Signficant" improvements at safety? Lynch is a nice pick up, but I dont think he will play on ST(which limits the value of a backup S). CB could be our undoing, and Capers is set up to be a savior/scapegoat.
I think the most telling aspect is that few of the FAs brought in made the team. As a veteran team contending for super bowls every year there SHOULD be some kind of a "veteran overflow", the players that take less money to play for a chance to win the super bowl. My point is there is NOT ONE of these vets this year(Lynch came in far too late to be considered, and at 1.2M he is not a vet bargain!). Why is that? Why cant we sell this to FAs?? We made the SB again and didnt use any of our good fortune to secure the roster. And that is what I dont like as an "owner".....not getting that one starting bargain FA vet you can showcase your offseason around.