A hypothetical: what would a team have to offer to get Chism?

[VJCPatriot]

Addison's only 23...man, I'd give it some real thought.

It's not his age that worries me. I don't want to give up real capital for a guy who can't get on the field because of suspensions and bad character. That's gonna be a NO from me.

Now if we're trading one of our busts for him, like say Ja'Lynn Polk straight up, I might be able to put up with the risk. Otherwise, Naah, not even worth considering. We've got a young team that needs to pull in one direction. No need to introduce bad character headaches on top of that now.

Jordan Addison DUI hurts team article: MSN

 

[manxman2601]

A good starting LG or C, arguably our biggest holes on the starting roster. But no, I'm not in favour of trading him either.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I don’t want a pick for him, I think he’s going to end up being critical to Maye’s success. Having an instant release valve is so important when you are facing a great pass rush, and he’s also going to be integral to moving the chains in this offense, and keeping their defense off the field.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I think we’re all kind of gun-shy with how horrific the Pats have been with wide receivers we have no idea. Maybe he sucks so getting anything would be good. But we’re also are afraid if we trade him for a first he’ll end up being Jerry Rice. So honestly who the hell knows.

Remember Pats traded the #16 pick to SF which they used on Jerry Rice!.

 

[Family]

It would have to be a trade for a player.

How much draft capital would a team realistically give up for an UDFA

 

[farn]

Who knows what EC will amount to in this league. One thing is for certain : The annual hardening of the midsection for unproven players has begun….

 

[Ross12]

It would have to be a trade for a player.

How much draft capital would a team realistically give up for an UDFA

yeah it’s hard to really peg a value for him as far as draft picks, but a player swap could be reasonable.

 

[PatsFan2]

First off, let me make it absolutely clear: I am not in favor of the idea.

That said, I've noted that Vikings fans in particular are starting to suggest the idea of trading for one of the Pats' surplus receivers, and more than a couple of them are taking the "if you can't beat 'em, get 'em" approach with Chism, even during the game. [Kwesi is their GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.]



So my question is: let's say for the sake of argument, Mike Vrabel calls you and says "Some team just offered me [X] for Efton Chism. Would you make the deal?" What's the minimum you'd need to say yes?

 

[PatsFan2]

Who knows what EC will amount to in this league. One thing is for certain : The annual hardening of the midsection for unproven players has begun….

Well for Starters he get's McDaniels Offense: hope springs eternal...I like his prospects.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Who knows what EC will amount to in this league. One thing is for certain : The annual hardening of the midsection for unproven players has begun….

You take prospects for what you believe they can become, as they can’t have proven anything when they haven’t had that opportunity yet. As for what he has proven, he broke all of Cooper Kupp’s records in college, and he has been the most consistently good player on the Patriots throughout the entire preseason process ( mini camps through preseason) of any player on the team. He has met every challenge he has faced and thrived throughout them. Now he’s going to get to prove himself at the highest level, and I believe he’s going to thrive for the Patriots when the real bullets start flying.

 

[Huckleberry1]

yeah it’s hard to really peg a value for him as far as draft picks, but a player swap could be reasonable.

Aaaah, so we are back to the Micah Parsons discussion…….

 

[Ross12]

Aaaah, so we are back to the Micah Parsons discussion…….

Hell no lol. A good starting center or free safety might be fine. Maybe a solid OLB.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Naah I'm not trading Chism before we even know what we have with him. Imagine if the Patriots had given up on Edelman before he had even played an official snap for us? Because that's the kind of receiver he could be for us, really, really good.

They actually let him shop around and almost let him walk

 

[Froob]

Uh....idk he was undrafted. His value couldn't have rocketed much. He's probably valued at like a 7 maybe 6 if you're dealing with Mickey Loomis. I'd be looking to deal Bourne.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hell no lol. A good starting center or free safety might be fine. Maybe a solid OLB.

Blasphemy

 

[Zoomnbyu]

First off, let me make it absolutely clear: I am not in favor of the idea.

That said, I've noted that Vikings fans in particular are starting to suggest the idea of trading for one of the Pats' surplus receivers, and more than a couple of them are taking the "if you can't beat 'em, get 'em" approach with Chism, even during the game. [Kwesi is their GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.]



So my question is: let's say for the sake of argument, Mike Vrabel calls you and says "Some team just offered me [X] for Efton Chism. Would you make the deal?" What's the minimum you'd need to say yes?

Id be ok with Anna Kendrick or Emma Watson....

Oh, you meant a football player.

 

[Zoomnbyu]

No ********? Jordan Addison. Even with the suspension. That might be enough to finagle it.

Edit: Like, Chism and a 4th for Addison. I think the Vikings are tired of his ****, but 23 year old receivers with big-time talent are hard to come by.

Miles and miles of heart in exchange for feet of heart and miles of ****upidness. No thanks.

 

[jmt57]

An All Pro left guard or center who is still in his twenties.


At first glance that ask may sound insane, but it's really not once you factor in the low cost of a rookie under a team's control for four years, versus the cost and cap space an all pro commands.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Id be ok with Anna Kendrick or Emma Watson....

Oh, you meant a football player.

The offer is to Vrabel, not to you.

 

[Schmo]

Odds of hitting on a draft pick vary, depending on the source you use. See screenshot for one of the more optimistic projections I found. Other sources suggested the following:

Fourth round approximately 8% to 12%

Third round 15% to 20%

Second round maybe as high as 25% to 33%

So, based on what we’ve seen from Chism so far Schmo is willing to kick him to the curb for another roll of the dice with a roughly 10% to 15% chance of success.

And Bob thinks a roll of the dice with 25% to 33% probability of success is a big ask, but a redo with 15% to 20% probability of success is better than keeping Chism.

Really?

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

For me, so far Chism has shown no reason to think that the probability of success for anything below a high first is better than keeping him. So my answer to the OP is pick 15 overall or above, nothing lower.

Considering the high rate of injuries (60-70% of all players in a single season) and that we are predicting his odds of having a successful initial 3 year contract based on 2 preseason games, your percentages for 3rd or 4th round impact players (10-40% depending on the source) is a pretty good estimate, if not a generous one.