A Closer Look: How Important Are Sacks?

[PatsFans.com Article]

A Closer Look: How Important Are Sacks?

John Vampatella

Rushing the passer has been an integral part of the game ever since the invention of the forward pass.

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[BobDigital]

Very interesting stuff.

 

[Tony2046]

Thinking out loud here.

I'm not sure I can buy into the point differential between the expected outcome of a pass or a rush play.

A 0 run gain vs an incomplete pass both result in 2nd and ten. And a 6 yard sack or a 6 yard run loss both result in 2nd and 16.

With that said I would consider the average results over time represent average teams. What are the outliers? Are they the top 10 or bottom 10?

For example: If a team possessed the #1 ranked offense would the effects of a sack result in the same "points loss" when compared to the 32nd ranked offense? I don't think so.

Great bye week article btw. Thanks

 

[Marqui]

Sacks are important impact plays...duh. Only a team that can't get them would try to argue they don't matter.

 

[ivanvamp]

Thinking out loud here.

I'm not sure I can buy into the point differential between the expected outcome of a pass or a rush play.

A 0 run gain vs an incomplete pass both result in 2nd and ten. And a 6 yard sack or a 6 yard run loss both result in 2nd and 16.

With that said I would consider the average results over time represent average teams. What are the outliers? Are they the top 10 or bottom 10?

For example: If a team possessed the #1 ranked offense would the effects of a sack result in the same "points loss" when compared to the 32nd ranked offense? I don't think so.

Great bye week article btw. Thanks

There is no difference between a 6 yard sack and a 6 yard tackle for loss on a run. Both lose 6 yards and a down. But on average, a sack loses more yards than a tackle for loss on a running play or pass reception. Moreover, as the article pointed out, fumbles by quarterbacks when they're sacked happen at a much higher rate than running backs stuffed behind the line of scrimmage.

So if you asked, "Would you rather have a 6 yard sack or a 6 yard tackle for loss on a running play?" it wouldn't matter.

But if you asked, "In a vacuum, would you rather have a sack or a tackle for loss on a running play?" the answer is clear: You'd MUCH rather have a QB sack.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Sacks are important impact plays...duh. Only a team that can't get them would try to argue they don't matter.

Nobody is arguing sacks don't matter, and you know that. You're intentionally twisting and misleading what was written. Or you didn't even bother reading it.

Sacks matter, yes. Fumbles do too. So do completed passes. So do incomplete passes. So do tackles. So do missed tackles. So does pretty much everything on the football field.

But the OP was trying to understand exactly how much they matter, applying logic and reason into trying to understand the game better. Meanwhile posts like yours intentionally skew and mislead in an attempt to dumb down everyone.

If you think his analysis is wrong, put up something to counter it. But don't ******** and lie. There's way too much of that in the world already.

 

[Tony2046]

Top 15 teams in the league by record. Defensive and Offensive sacks range from top ten to worst in the league.

If I was going to guess what this chart represents it would be that a team better be good enough at something to overcome what they are not good at.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

It's one play on one drive. It's going to happen. It's not a big deal unless it happens on every drive. A sack is no more important than any other play abd IMHO, grossly overrated. What isn't is a well run defense which provides a good balance of pressure and coverage.

 

[Jimke]

Sacks are not as important as applying constant pressure on the quarterback. The Patriots
are not hurrying the quarterback.

 

[Nikolai]

Sacks are not as important as applying constant pressure on the quarterback. The Patriots
are not hurrying the quarterback.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/total-team-defensive-hurries/2016/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/total-team-defensive-hurries/2016

Interesting chart that has the Pats #4 in the league with 58 QB hurries...middle of the road in 2014 and among the worst in the league in 2011 and 2009. I've no idea how accurate this is as hurries don't seem to be a stat I can find all that easily, and I've never heard of this site, but ehhhhh...

Pressure on the QB hasn't been as big an issue as making the actual sack. There are four specific instances I can come up with off the top of my head where a QB got away miraculously from Ninko or Sheard. If even two of those go down as sacks, suddenly the Pats are middle of the road in sacks.

 

[Canuck]

Teams pass rush in order to sack the QB. That is the ultimate goal. An attempt to sack may result in a hurry as the QB attempts a pass before he wanted to. Sacks are more important then hurries because there are more negative outcomes from a sack then a hurry. A pass rush that ends in 26 sacks is more effective then if it ended in 26 hurries. Still the team defense that has 26 hurries can be as good or better then the team that has 26 sacks. The Bills are tied for the lead in sacks but are 16th in points allowed and the Patriots offense just scored 40+ points against them.

Sack totals can be misleading in that they can come in bunches against the weaker teams. In the end, it is the total defense that counts. It's all the defensive stats combined, that count the most. Sacks are but 1 stat of many

 

[EddardSnow67]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/total-team-defensive-hurries/2016

Interesting chart that has the Pats #4 in the league with 58 QB hurries...middle of the road in 2014 and among the worst in the league in 2011 and 2009. I've no idea how accurate this is as hurries don't seem to be a stat I can find all that easily, and I've never heard of this site, but ehhhhh...

Pressure on the QB hasn't been as big an issue as making the actual sack. There are four specific instances I can come up with off the top of my head where a QB got away miraculously from Ninko or Sheard. If even two of those go down as sacks, suddenly the Pats are middle of the road in sacks.

Good point. There are few QBs in the league who can evade pressure like Taylor. It's extremely difficult to get good shots on him unless he's got his feet planted and is in the act of throwing. If he's able to move his feet, he's almost impossible to get ahold of.

 

[mosi]

Sacks are not nearly as important as pressure. I would be happy if the Pats could get pressure on the opposing QB -even with the same sack number.

 

[BobDigital]

Obviously sacks are not the only thing that matters and perhaps too much attention is paid to them on the whole but they are a good stat to look at.

I have seen a QB get sacked on 3rd and 5 at the 31 yards line and now at the 37 are forced to punt it away. A sack in that situation was a possible 3 point swing and that play CAN NOT be overstated. It was game changing potentially. I have also seen sacks on 3rd and forever when a QB loses 6 or so more yards and it didn't really matter or effect the game but looks nice on the stat sheet i guess.

So it goes on a case by case basis for each sack and i think saying a sack on the whole saves you 1 point on average is not incorrect. Even it does not take away points like sacking a team out of FG range they can make it very hard to continue a drive and gain field position.

For instance take a team at the 50 yard line on 2nd and 2.. A sack makes it 3rd and 8 and they can't get 8 yards and now have to punt. While you didn't change field position much (Still pinned inside the 10) you stopped a promising drive with that play.

Pressures matter of course as do other plays but to say sacks are not needed is wrong IMO. Good work!

 

[SlowGettingUp]

I think his analysis is a bit misleading. More informative I think to look at this in a 3-way analysis - sack, incompletion and completion. So then the outcomes are -6 yds, 0 gain, +12 yds (= 7 yds / completion rate). So in expected points I'm guessing that must be something along the lines of -0.9, -0.3, + 0.7

If those numbers are right, two incompletions (= -0.6) are significantly better than a sack and a completion (=-0.2)

That's why Belichick usually drops guys into coverage rather than sending the house.

 

[ivanvamp]

The Pats had 3 sacks and 3 TFL last night. Currently they are 9th in the NFL in QB pressures.

Total Team Defensive Hurries: 2016 NFL Season

So believe it or not, they are one of the better teams in the league at rushing the QB. They're just not getting there to get the actual sack (25th in the league with 16 sacks).

 

[VrabelJr]

Seattle had less sacks than we did and you tell me which defense looked better.

Or look at the sack darling Colts defense of the 2000s. Lots of sacks from Freeney and Mathis, still a crappy defense.

 

[ivanvamp]

Seattle had less sacks than we did and you tell me which defense looked better.

Or look at the sack darling Colts defense of the 2000s. Lots of sacks from Freeney and Mathis, still a crappy defense.

So the problem isn't QB pressure then, right? It's the whole defense?

 

[VrabelJr]

So the problem isn't QB pressure then, right? It's the whole defense?

I would say it's getting pressure consistently. Also, all pressure was not created equally. Modern QBs are so good at throwing on the run or rolling out. Pressure from the A and B gaps is far more valuable these days.

 

[ivanvamp]

I would say it's getting pressure consistently. Also, all pressure was not created equally. Modern QBs are so good at throwing on the run or rolling out. Pressure from the A and B gaps is far more valuable these days.

So the premise of this thread was that sacks are incredibly valuable. Others chimed in and suggested (like you) that consistent pressure is more important. Fine. But then when I pointed out that the Patriots are among the league leaders in QB pressures, now it's "pressure from the A and B gaps" is the key, not just pressure from anywhere? If only we could find a stat that tracked THAT.