A Balanced Look At The Run Defense

[RobertWeathers]

As of right now, the run D is allowing 4.9 yards per carry (dead last in the league). On the surface, that sucks.

However if you start from the TB game, remove QB scrambles (11 carries/78 yards) and the Melvin Gordon 87 yard run and the 25 yd run by Lynch in which Marsh fell asleep both times, they tell a different statistical story.

Since the CAR game:

TB: 17/79 4.6ypc
NYJ: 21/53 2.5pyc
ATL: 19/83 4.4ypc
LA: 20/70 3.5ypc
DEN: 28/118 4.2ypc
OAK: 20/84 4.2ypc
MIA: 17/58 3.4ypc

Totals: 142/545 3.8ypc

Seeing how Brown is back, Branch and Guy are playing better and Marsh getting the axe is addition by subtraction, I am confident the run D will continue to be good enough down the stretch and in the playoffs. They've also looked better on short yardage.

 

[patriot1136]

Props to you for being able to crunch those statistics. Very interesting overall too. I like the direction this is going. Hopefully we keep it up, especially in the playoffs. I wonder if we will see some improvement from Trevor Reilly and maybe get something out of Eric Lee too.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Props to you for being able to crunch those statistics. Very interesting overall too. I like the direction this is going. Hopefully we keep it up, especially in the playoffs. I wonder if we will see some improvement from Trevor Reilly and maybe get something out of Eric Lee too.

From a numerical standpoint the first 4 games were so bad that it's still influencing how the D is being evaluated.

It'll be interesting to see how they fair vs teams that have good RBs and commit to running the ball like BUF and Pitt even though Shady and Bell aren't having their best years

 

[stoinkythepig]

I'm certainly no expert, but when you play with a big lead and force the opposing team to pass in order to keep up, you tend to play more nickel and dime defense and thus concede the run between the 30s, no? I don't have stats to back it up but to best of my recollection, BB does not care which teams runs the clock out when he has a big lead.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

From a numerical standpoint the first 4 games were so bad that it's still influencing how the D is being evaluated.

It'll be interesting to see how they fair vs teams that have good RBs and commit to running the ball like BUF and Pitt even though Shady and Bell aren't having their best years

Exactly - this clearly distorts both the running and passing yard statistics. When protecting a lead in the fourth quarter (and sometimes even earlier), BB always willing to concede a 6-yard run or pass in the middle of the field to take a minute or so off the clock.

Historically, the Pats defense has always done better on points allowed than on yards allowed. The time aspect is one of the reasons for this. (The other of course is BB's belief that most teams can't string together a long sequence of positive plays).

 

[Kontradiction]

I expect the run D to improve even more as we head toward the last quarter of the season. Brown is back and his presence alone will allow them to better manage Branch's snaps. Add to that the fact that Marsh and his insane tendency to way overpursue is gone and I think we will continue to see gains on that front.