A 2 point conversion strategy for AFC Championship game

[Family]

What if the Patriots went for two points after EVERY TOUCHDOWN today?

Here are some reasons for the strategy:

Two-Point Study

1) There will likely be a lot of TD scoring. Statistically teams average more points going for two than one. With the possibility of 5-8 TDs by the Patriots there is a better chance the law of averages kick in.

2) According to the link above running the ball for two is successful 63.6% of the time, while passing 44.9%. KC is 30th against the run and we can load up Gronk, Allen, and Develin, while still using play action.

3) The Pats would be prepared with enough 2 point plays, but KC will not be. This will force Andy Reid to think rather than go by a planned script

4) This could rattle a young QB.

5) You are taking control of the game on the road in a place that's been hard to win.

If the Pats are running at will early in the game, I think this is an excellent idea. I don't believe you would lose the game because of this strategy and there is a lot of upside.

Any thoughts?

 

[signbabybrady]

Direct snap to White.

 

[Observer]

Downside is that you score 6 and they score 7.

 

[Family]

Downside is that you score 6 and they score 7.

Downside to any strategy is that it fails.

But do the advantages outweigh the risk?

 

[VectorPrime]

I swear to god if Gost misses an XP...

 

[Observer]

Downside to any strategy is that it fails.

But do the advantages outweigh the risk?

1 point should be automatic for NFL kickers so 2 points seems an unnecessary risk if not necessary.

 

[TBR]

Downside is that you score 6 and they score 7.

If the Pats and Chiefs score 4 TDs each and the Pats only convert the 2 point play on 2 of those, it would make no difference. It's still 28 points each - assuming the Chiefs play it safe on their extra points and just kick for 1.

 

[QB12]

I would certainly copy the Chargers 2 point pass play to Williams. Guy was WIDE open.

 

[PittPatriot]

Weather conditions could make kicks harder than a 2 yard play. It’s actually not that bad in KC...heck of a lot warmer than Columbus, Ohio right now.

 

[gitgronked82]

I would certainly copy the Chargers 2 point pass play to Williams. Guy was WIDE open.

yes, lets run the "have the defense mess up their switch and blow the coverage" play. it's quite reliable

 

[Triumph]

Take the 1 point.

If you miss then go for 2 next score. BB usually always takes the points even trailing. Take the XP and take the FGs.

 

[1960Pats]

I swear to god if Gost misses an XP...

 

[Kdo5]

Direct snap to White.

It's amazing to me that that play almost never seems to fail. It's as money as a Brady QB sneak.

 

[Sicilian]

The problem with this strategy to me, is it always seems people are basing it off of the success rates from a REALLY large sample size, and applying it to a game situation that's going to produce a very limited number of opportunities. What would seem to work on average over the course of an entire season, when attempted over 4 or 5 chances in a game creates a huge variance.

Plus, if you miss the first one, now you've put yourself in a position where you almost HAVE to go for 2 each time, to make up for it, until you're even again. It's like a gambler's fallacy.