5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[amhunt2]

I thought I'd give this one a whack. My 5:

1. Win the turnover battle. Both teams are oppotunistic. The Saints lead the NFL in turnovers with 29, the Pats are 3rd with 22. Over the past 5 games the Pats lead the NFL with 16 turnovers. The Pats are 2nd in turnover differential at +12, the Saints 4th at +10. The Saints have produced a whopping 566 yards on 20 INT returns, and have scored 7 TDs directly on turnovers (5 INTs and 2 fumbles); the Pats, only 1, but that came last week. Whichever team wins this battle will have a decided edge. On offense, the Pats need to avoid costly mistakes and big negative plays. They can't kill drives with costly turnovers, and if they do turn the ball over they have to stop the Saints from making the big gain and force the Saints offense to work for points. On defense, they have to stay aggressive and make plays; and the Pats need to turn those opportunities into points. The good news for the Pats is that the Saints offense has been prone to turnovers.

2. Control the TOP. The Pats currently rank 1st in TOP at 34:43, the Saints 7th at 32:21. The Pats need to keep the Saints offense off the field and limit their opportunities. The Saint's defense is 7th in the league in limiting 3rd down conversions, at 34.5%. The Pats offense is 6th in converting 3rd downs, at 45.7%. How the Pats do to convert on 3rd (and 4th) down and keep drives alive will be important. Being able to run the ball effectively will also be important. If the Pats outrush the Saints, I think the Pats win.

3. Red Zone Execution. This is perhaps the biggest key, on both sides of the ball. The Saints defense gives up yards and points, but makes big plays and is 5th in red zone defense. The Pat's offense ranked 25th in red zone efficiency going into the Jets game. Conversely, the Pats defense rank 2nd in PPG but 28th in red zone defense.

4. Stop the Run. The Saints have too many weapons to shut down. But they've been running for over 150 yards per game. That's too much, in addition to Drew Brees. The Pats need to slow the Saints running attack and make them beat us in the air. Then they become more one-dimensional. If the Saints can run at will, then it will be a long day for the Pats defense. The Pats slowed NY's league-leading rushing attack last week, so they can do it.

5. Play for 60 minutes. We have to avoid mental lapses. We have to avoid special teams breakdowns. And above all we have to come out on fire in the 2nd half and play our guts out on both sides of the ball. No 3rd quarter absences if we want to win this game. Like the Colts, the Saints are a team that we could easily beat for 3 quarters and lose the game.

If the Pats do win the game, I think the person who may have had the most to do with it outside of the players on the field will be Peyton Manning. Our biggest advantage over the Saints is that we've already been battle tested (and scarred) against a top offense. They've never faced an offense like ours.

The pats will destroy the saints. Period.

 

[SVN]

1 big diff with the colts vs pats- the familiarity of the teams. this is somewhere maybe pats can gain some adv in schemes and so forth

 

[Satchboogie3]

so do I, you will go long and deep off the mark. and its what Im hoping for. The only score of 50 or more on us where run plays. Best way to get an interception is to test this saints D that is built for that moment and only that moment, its a mistake but I wish it. Why even try, just beat it down the field, but I agree temptation is to much for TB, and we will be waiting for that pass.

Tom Brady doesn't throw many jump balls. The only way you are intercepting Brady deep is if you out jump Moss and we all know how infrequently that occurs. Tom Brady only has 6 INTs on the season and had only 8 all of 2007 (1 of which came in the week 15 wind tunnel Jets game and 2 of which came in the week 16 Miami game where Brady was just trying to get Moss his record breaking TD). Brady just doesn't make mistakes with this offense.

As for the Saints defense, a lot of the INTs have come from inexperienced QBs.
3 INTs off Matthew Stafford playing his first career NFL game straight out of the draft.
3 INTs off Kevin Kolb making his first career NFL start.
1 INT off Trent Edwards
3 INT off Sanchez (2nd in INTs thrown now)
1 INT off Eli Manning
1 INT off Chad Henne making his 3rd career start
3 INT off Matt Ryan who was in a funk (5 INTs in 3 games prior to playing NO)
3 INT off Josh Freeman making his 3rd career start.

So the Saints had 13 of their INTs off of QBs who had started a combined 12 NFL games in their careers.
And 18 of their INTs against average, terrible, or "new" QBs.
The Best QBs you have faced are Mark Bulger and Eli Manning... not to impressive.

Now, I'm not saying the Saints defense is bad, it's just not as good as it seems. More importantly, though, is that Brady and this offense is just extremely hard to shut down and I don't think there is anything to suggest NO will be up to the task.

If Detroit, Philly, the Giants, Atlanta, Carolina, and St. Louis were able to put up 20+ points on the Saints, I don't see any reason why the Pats don't put up 30+.

 

[mayoclinic]

The pats will destroy the saints. Period.

That would be nice. But 2 stats worry me:

1. 2nd half offense. The Pats have scored 194 points in the 1st half, the Saints 181. But the Saints have outscored the Pats in the 2nd half 188 to 194.

2. The tale of the red zone. Pats are 3rd in scoring offense and 2nd in scoring defense. But they're 28th in red zone offense and 25th in red zone defense. The Saints rank near the top in both red zone categories.

Those stats say the Saints win the game if we continue true to form.

 

[Metaphors]

1) Disrupt Brees' sight lines

He is only 6'0" and is vulnerable to tipped passes. Compress the pocket with Wilfork and let Warren (6'5") and Wright (6'4") get their hands up. Maybe Woods and his 6'5" frame gets some meaningful snaps. This is more important than pressure from the outside.

2) Treat Sharper like Ed Reed (even though he isn't)

Brady stayed away from Reed in the Ravens game and that forced their other DBs to step up, which they didn't do. Which leads me to...

3) Keep the Saints in nickle and dime formations

Their CBs are either out, hurting, inexperienced or just signed off the street. Try to get as many of them on the field at all times.

4) Use the pass to set up the run

The Saints DL is big so spread them out early and get them running around. Pick your spots for draws and screens. Wear them out and they will be less effective in the 4th quarter when you want to run out the clock.

5) Patience on defense, aggression on offense

Expect a high scoring game. On defense, don't try to win every battle. Look for big play opportunities and don't sweat it if a couple don't go your way. On offense, be prepared to go for it on 4th down. There will be 10 drives and you are going to need at least 4 of them to be TDs.

 

[mayoclinic]

1) Disrupt Brees' sight lines

He is only 6'0" and is vulnerable to tipped passes. Compress the pocket with Wilfork and let Warren (6'5") and Wright (6'4") get their hands up. Maybe Woods and his 6'5" frame gets some meaningful snaps. This is more important than pressure from the outside.

2) Treat Sharper like Ed Reed (even though he isn't)

Brady stayed away from Reed in the Ravens game and that forced their other DBs to step up, which they didn't do. Which leads me to...

3) Keep the Saints in nickle and dime formations

Their CBs are either out, hurting, inexperienced or just signed off the street. Try to get as many of them on the field at all times.

4) Use the pass to set up the run

The Saints DL is big so spread them out early and get them running around. Pick your spots for draws and screens. Wear them out and they will be less effective in the 4th quarter when you want to run out the clock.

5) Patience on defense, aggression on offense

Expect a high scoring game. On defense, don't try to win every battle. Look for big play opportunities and don't sweat it if a couple don't go your way. On offense, be prepared to go for it on 4th down. There will be 10 drives and you are going to need at least 4 of them to be TDs.

Very nice. Particularly #1.

 

[pherein]

1) Disrupt Brees' sight lines

He is only 6'0" and is vulnerable to tipped passes. Compress the pocket with Wilfork and let Warren (6'5") and Wright (6'4") get their hands up. Maybe Woods and his 6'5" frame gets some meaningful snaps. This is more important than pressure from the outside.

2) Treat Sharper like Ed Reed (even though he isn't)

Brady stayed away from Reed in the Ravens game and that forced their other DBs to step up, which they didn't do. Which leads me to...

3) Keep the Saints in nickle and dime formations

Their CBs are either out, hurting, inexperienced or just signed off the street. Try to get as many of them on the field at all times.

4) Use the pass to set up the run

The Saints DL is big so spread them out early and get them running around. Pick your spots for draws and screens. Wear them out and they will be less effective in the 4th quarter when you want to run out the clock.

5) Patience on defense, aggression on offense

Expect a high scoring game. On defense, don't try to win every battle. Look for big play opportunities and don't sweat it if a couple don't go your way. On offense, be prepared to go for it on 4th down. There will be 10 drives and you are going to need at least 4 of them to be TDs.

nice post see nothing wrong with this #1 is a smart move

 

[mayoclinic]

Adam Duerson of CNNSI had a nice analysis of the keys to the game:

 Patriots at Saints - Adam Duerson - SI.com

Duerson notes: "It comes down to this: The Saints were a better team eight weeks ago than they are now. Part of that is injuries; part of it is game-planning since opposing coaches have something to go off every week. And the Patriots have followed the exact opposite trajectory. With rare exception, I've been more impressed every week, as if this team is slowly working its way back to its record form of 2007. And that's saying a lot."

 

[pherein]

Adam Duerson of CNNSI had a nice analysis of the keys to the game:

*Patriots at Saints - Adam Duerson - SI.com

Duerson notes: "It comes down to this: The Saints were a better team eight weeks ago than they are now. Part of that is injuries; part of it is game-planning since opposing coaches have something to go off every week. And the Patriots have followed the exact opposite trajectory. With rare exception, I've been more impressed every week, as if this team is slowly working its way back to its record form of 2007. And that's saying a lot."

Nice write up. I cant agree with some of the points because they dont cover important details that would explain the slow 1st quarter starts. While if you remeber the saints where known to score the 1st possession and dominate off the go, even vs the eagles and giants. To me the depth of this article is not there, let me explain..

The jets clearly had a great defense at the beginning of the season probably #1
patriots 9 jets 16 ( didnt even get 7)
Saints 24 jets 10 ( 2x 7)

I would take from this that the Patriots cant handle a good defense and cant stop a rookie QB, and if they cant stop a rookie what chance do they have with a QB like brees. But the surface is not what it seems is it?
Brady was hurt, and I cant explain the defense, but the saints have been playing hurt with 12 starts out during those games.
We are banged up but I think we are the same team.

 

[ausbacker]

Nice write up. I cant agree with some of the points because they dont cover important details that would explain the slow 1st quarter starts. While if you remeber the saints where known to score the 1st possession and dominate off the go, even vs the eagles and giants. To me the depth of this article is not there, let me explain..

The jets clearly had a great defense at the beginning of the season probably #1
patriots 9 jets 16 ( didnt even get 7)
Saints 24 jets 10 ( 2x 7)

I would take from this that the Patriots cant handle a good defense and cant stop a rookie QB, and if they cant stop a rookie what chance do they have with a QB like brees. But the surface is not what it seems is it?
Brady was hurt, and I cant explain the defense, but the saints have been playing hurt with 12 starts out during those games.
We are banged up but I think we are the same team.

You've got to be joking? Brady laid an egg, which he rightfully acknowledged against the Jets in their first meeting. He was minus Welker and coming into his second game back from a major knee reconstruction. Brady acknowledged that he simply wasn't ready to carry the offense and what was asked of him at that point in time. Part Brady, part Jets.

Brady's progressively gotten better as the season has moved along and shredded the Colts defense.

A little balance pherein.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Nice write up. I cant agree with some of the points because they dont cover important details that would explain the slow 1st quarter starts. While if you remeber the saints where known to score the 1st possession and dominate off the go, even vs the eagles and giants. To me the depth of this article is not there, let me explain..

The jets clearly had a great defense at the beginning of the season probably #1
patriots 9 jets 16 ( didnt even get 7)
Saints 24 jets 10 ( 2x 7)

I would take from this that the Patriots cant handle a good defense and cant stop a rookie QB, and if they cant stop a rookie what chance do they have with a QB like brees. But the surface is not what it seems is it?
Brady was hurt, and I cant explain the defense, but the saints have been playing hurt with 12 starts out during those games.
We are banged up but I think we are the same team.

Did you not watch last Sunday where the Pats easily put up 31 on the Jets and forced 5 turnovers (4 INTs, 1 strip-sack)?

The Pats were a different team in week 2. The gameplan was terrible, the offense was missing Welker, Moss' back was at it's worst, and Brady was rusty as hell. How is any of that the case right now?

 

[pherein]

You've got to be joking? Brady laid an egg, which he rightfully acknowledged against the Jets in their first meeting. He was minus Welker and coming into his second game back from a major knee reconstruction. Brady acknowledged that he simply wasn't ready to carry the offense and what was asked of him at that point in time. Part Brady, part Jets.

Brady's progressively gotten better as the season has moved along and shredded the Colts defense.

A little balance pherein.

Exactly what you said I stated , read all of the post. Their were circumstances deeper than me making those easy assumptions, thats my point. Brady was hurt welker is out , so my point is the saints are the same team, we just got 12 starters hurt also. . By saying the saint are not the same team as before, is saying these injuries or circumstances did not happen, and allot of our guys our coming back monday, so the article , Im saying is not deep, I used the Jets game as an Example of making the Wrong assumption. my fault for not being clear

 

[eagle eye]

Great opening post by Mayo Clinic, I agree with everything you said.

I would add that establishing the running game is hugely important. The teams that have established the running game have been the ones that got closest to the Saints.
I'm omitting the Buccanneers game for obvious reasons and in their previous three games Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner have rushed for well over 100 yards, the Saints have not won any of these games by more than 10 points.
Its clear that the Patriots have a hugely powerful passing game with Brady to Moss and Welker but we need to get that ground game humming to open them up especially for Welker, the Saints have been very good at closing down the underneath man this year, clearly Welker is the best one you are going to meet all season but if the Patriots don't have success on the ground its going to be a lot harder for Welker to get open.

Is Matt Light fit to play this week I wonder?
I like the idea of both him and Vollmer switching around on the line. Vollmer is great at opening holes, Light is better at holding the edge. I think we can have a lot of fun if Light is fit to play.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Exactly what you said I stated , read all of the post. Their were circumstances deeper than me making those assumptions, thats my point. Brady was hurt welker is out , so my point is we are the same team we just got 12 starter hurt also. read my post. By saying the saint are not the same team as before is saying these injuries or circumstances did not happen, and allot of our guys our coming back monday, so the article , Im saying is not deep, I used the Jets game as an Example .

Oh give me a break with this "12 starters out!" crap. The Saints have had a couple starters banged up each week. Big deal, that happens with every team. Having a couple of average starters out isn't the same thing as having a QB coming back from a year long injury, missing his favorite target, while his other favorite target is battling a back injury.

 

[ausbacker]

Exactly what you said I stated , read all of the post. Their were circumstances deeper than me making those easy assumptions, thats my point. Brady was hurt welker is out , so my point is the saints are the same team, we just got 12 starters hurt also. . By saying the saint are not the same team as before, is saying these injuries or circumstances did not happen, and allot of our guys our coming back monday, so the article , Im saying is not deep, I used the Jets game as an Example of making the Wrong assumption. my fault for not being clear

I think you need to re-read what you are writing pherein.... or at the very least change the manner in which you are trying to deliver a point of view.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice write up. I cant agree with some of the points because they dont cover important details that would explain the slow 1st quarter starts. While if you remeber the saints where known to score the 1st possession and dominate off the go, even vs the eagles and giants. To me the depth of this article is not there, let me explain..

The jets clearly had a great defense at the beginning of the season probably #1
patriots 9 jets 16 ( didnt even get 7)
Saints 24 jets 10 ( 2x 7)

I would take from this that the Patriots cant handle a good defense and cant stop a rookie QB, and if they cant stop a rookie what chance do they have with a QB like brees. But the surface is not what it seems is it?
Brady was hurt, and I cant explain the defense, but the saints have been playing hurt with 12 starts out during those games.
We are banged up but I think we are the same team.

I think that's a little unfair, my friend.

First, the Jets were playing terrific defense at the beginning of the season. No doubt about it.

The Pats offense scored 9 points against the Jets defense with Welker out, Brady rusty, and a horrible gameplan. They drove the ball repeatedly in the first half and came away with 3 FGs and a 9-3 halftime lead on 4 drives to the Jets 36 (punt), 27 (FG), 7 (FG) and 11 (FG).

The fully healthy and loaded Saints offense scored 10 points against the Jets defense. The other 14 were directly put up by the Saints' defense.

I fully understand that you've been banged up, and it's to your team's credit that they've weathered those injuries without losing a game. That's hard to do.

I do think that starting out on fire is not to a team's advantage. The NFL season is a long one, and teams find ways of adjusting. The Pats found this out the hard way in 2007. We annihilated teams for 8+ games at a level never before seen in the NFL. The second half of the season got much harder, with several close calls. The playoff victories were not cakewalks by any stretch. And we couldn't close out against the Giants (who we had beat week 17) in the SB.

I've posted elsewhere data showing that the NFL team which dominates through November almost never is the one that wins the SB. Not Tennessee or the Giants in 2008, not the Pats in 2007, not the Chargers in 2006, not the Colts in 2005, not the Steelers in 2004. Last team to do so was the 2003 Patriots, which started out 2-2.

The Saints are good. No doubt about it. They are worthy of winning it all, and they may in fact win it all. But I personally agree with Duerson that they are struggling over the past 5 games compared with how they opened the first 5 games of the season, whereas the Patriots seem to be improving. Whether that's enough for the Pats to win is another matter.

 

[pherein]

Oh give me a break with this "12 starters out!" crap. The Saints have had a couple starters banged up each week. Big deal, that happens with every team. Having a couple of average starters out isn't the same thing as having a QB coming back from a year long injury, missing his favorite target, while his other favorite target is battling a back injury.

1 QB not feeling well and a TE must be difficult

how about #1 in the NFL for guys on IR, no sympathy here
ll 12 are starters
13 Harper, Rod WR 6-0 209 24 1 Murray State
24 Torrence, Leigh CB 5-11 179 27 4 Stanford
35 Jones, Reggie CB 6-0 193 23 R Portland State
37 Vaughn, Chip S 6-2 221 24 R Wake Forest
44 Evans, Heath FB 6-0 250 30 9 Auburn
53 Simoneau, Mark LB 6-0 245 32 10 Kansas State
59 Arnoux, Stanley LB 6-0 232 23 R Wake Forest
70 Brown, Jammal T 6-6 313 28 5 Oklahoma
71 Clancy, Kendrick DT 6-1 305 31 10 Mississippi
83 Miller, Billy TE 6-3 252 32 10 Southern California
84 Woods, D'Juan WR 6-1 210 25 1 Oklahoma State
Campbell, Dan TE 6-5 265 33 11 Texas A&M

We also lost bush,greer,fujita,porter,bell,moore,ellis for 3-4 games this
year.

 

[ausbacker]

wow 1 QB not feeling well and a TE must be difficult

how about #1 in the NFL for guys on IR, no sympathy here
ll 12 are starters
13 Harper, Rod WR 6-0 209 24 1 Murray State
24 Torrence, Leigh CB 5-11 179 27 4 Stanford
35 Jones, Reggie CB 6-0 193 23 R Portland State
37 Vaughn, Chip S 6-2 221 24 R Wake Forest
44 Evans, Heath FB 6-0 250 30 9 Auburn
53 Simoneau, Mark LB 6-0 245 32 10 Kansas State
59 Arnoux, Stanley LB 6-0 232 23 R Wake Forest
70 Brown, Jammal T 6-6 313 28 5 Oklahoma
71 Clancy, Kendrick DT 6-1 305 31 10 Mississippi
83 Miller, Billy TE 6-3 252 32 10 Southern California
84 Woods, D'Juan WR 6-1 210 25 1 Oklahoma State
Campbell, Dan TE 6-5 265 33 11 Texas A&M

We also lost bush,greer,fujita,porter,bell,moore,ellis for 3-4 games this
year.

pherein, out of this list you have provided, who are absolutely critical to the success or failure of the Saints and who are the JAGS in your opinion?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I usually don't do this free of charge but here goes. PATSYLICIOUS'S 5 KEYS TO VICTORY:

1. Play good on offense
2. Play good on defense
3. No mistakes
4. Coaches call a good game
5. Good special teams

 

[pherein]

I think that's a little unfair, my friend.

First, the Jets were playing terrific defense at the beginning of the season. No doubt about it.

The Pats offense scored 9 points against the Jets defense with Welker out, Brady rusty, and a horrible gameplan. They drove the ball repeatedly in the first half and came away with 3 FGs and a 9-3 halftime lead on 4 drives to the Jets 36 (punt), 27 (FG), 7 (FG) and 11 (FG).

The fully healthy and loaded Saints offense scored 10 points against the Jets defense. The other 14 were directly put up by the Saints' defense.

I fully understand that you've been banged up, and it's to your team's credit that they've weathered those injuries without losing a game. That's hard to do.

I do think that starting out on fire is not to a team's advantage. The NFL season is a long one, and teams find ways of adjusting. The Pats found this out the hard way in 2007. We annihilated teams for 8+ games at a level never before seen in the NFL. The second half of the season got much harder, with several close calls. The playoff victories were not cakewalks by any stretch. And we couldn't close out against the Giants (who we had beat week 17) in the SB.

I've posted elsewhere data showing that the NFL team which dominates through November almost never is the one that wins the SB. Not Tennessee or the Giants in 2008, not the Pats in 2007, not the Chargers in 2006, not the Colts in 2005, not the Steelers in 2004. Last team to do so was the 2003 Patriots, which started out 2-2.

The Saints are good. No doubt about it. They are worthy of winning it all, and they may in fact win it all. But I personally agree with Duerson that they are struggling over the past 5 games compared with how they opened the first 5 games of the season, whereas the Patriots seem to be improving. Whether that's enough for the Pats to win is another matter.

Ya my point and miss pronunciation might be a miss understanding of my option.The Jets game and what I said about it was used as an example of how you can come up with the wrong conclusion by not looking deeper into the problem. The example was:


{{{{{{let me explain..

The jets clearly had a great defense at the beginning of the season probably #1
patriots 9 jets 16 ( didnt even get 7)
Saints 24 jets 10 ( 2x 7)

I would take from this that the Patriots cant handle a good defense and cant stop a rookie QB, and if they cant stop a rookie what chance do they have with a QB like brees. But the surface is not what it seems is it?}}}}}}

That is the same error the writer is making in this link. The saints are the same team, we just had guys hurt in those games, same as the Pats had issues vs the jets the first time. But these guys are coming back.