5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[mayoclinic]

1. Play the Saints WRs man-to-man, but give help over the top on Colston with Meriweather. Put Wilhite and Butler on Henderson, Meachem or whoever else NO rolls out (they are deep at WR) and put the physical Bodden on the huge Colston. Put McGowan on Shockey. I think they can lock down these receivers long enough as long as the Pats can...

I think you will see a lot of 3-3-5 (with both regular and "big" nickel packages) and 3-2-6 in this game. I think you will see a 3 man line of Wright-Wilfork-Warren or Wilfork-Pryor-Warren, with Brace for depth. Mayo and Guyton will be the main LBs, with Adalius Thomas the 3rd LB in the 3-3-5 sets. Patrick Chung will play in big nickel formations and will substitute for Thomas as a hybrid safety/LB in 3-2-6 formations.

I see the DL's main job as being stopping the run up the middle and pushing the pocket back. The LB's will provide additional run support, and will rush up the middle, as will the safeties at times. Bodden is big and physical and matches up as well on Colston as anyone does. McGowan will have primary responsibility for Shockey. Butler and Wilhite will cover the other WRs, with Meriweather playing centerfielder and helping out. Chung can enforce the middle, function as a hybrid LB, and blitz.

2. ...Get pressure on Brees with exotic blitzes. Bring Banta-Cain off the edge on either side, bring Mayo or Guyton up the gut. Have Adalius come from either side. Fake blitz, then drop into short zones for the crossing routes. I don't think the Pats can bring consistent pressure with the base 4-man rush, so they need to mix things up. Do things Brees hasn't seen on film.

I agree with this. I see Jarvis Green, TBC and Derrick Burgess being used mainly as situational pass rushers, with most of the pressure coming up the middle from Mayo and Guyton or off the edge from the DBs. Brees is a student of the game but he hasn't played the Pats much the way Manning has, and he will be more susceptible to confusion. I also see the Pats switching around coverage assignments to confuse Brees.

3. Hold strong against the run. Thomas and Bell are a great one-two punch in that offense. It will be up to Wilfork, Warren and the ILBs to carry the lions-share of run D (I suspect the Pats will be in various nickels that keep Wright and other DLs off the field for many snaps). I hope Warren is fully recovered because he'll be needed. I have total faith in the beast that is Wilfork (extend him quickly, BB).

As mentioned above, I see a 3 man DL whose primary responsibility is to hold strong against the inside run and force things outside. I think we will see Wilfork at DE with Pryor or Brace at DT a lot. It will be hard to run against that kind of 3 man line. Mayo and Guyton will support the inside run and have primary responsibility for not letting the Saints get around the corner outside, with support from the DBs.

4. Keep the Saints D off balance with under-center snaps with runs and play-action. Do not go heavy shotgun as the Saints can pass-rush with the best of them.

I agree about using more play action and under-center snaps and less shotgun. I think the Saints 20th ranked run defense is susceptible, particularly if Morris or Taylor is back. I don't think the Saints' DEs can compare with Freeney and Mathis, and will have trouble getting pressure on Brady. Vollmer should be able to handle the left side by himself, allowing for the TE to help Kaczur out, and the guards to double up on the middle. If the Saints do get pressure, I think it will come up the middle.

With time, I think Brady can pick the NO defense apart ... as he can pick any defense apart with time.

That's it...just 4. I think the Pats' offense, when it plays balanced football like it did vs. Atlanta, Baltimore and the 1st half vs. Indy, can score on anyone so there's not much to add there. The key is not playing scared on D, not backing down against that offense. Don't play off the receivers out of fear. Make Brees be perfect on his throws. As we've seen with Brady, pressure on the QB makes a world of difference so the Pats need to get some heat on Brees.

Regards,
Chris

Great thoughts.

 

[slash83]

With Brees being one of the shorter QB's in the NFL at about 6'1 6'2 I think the Pats should try bringing pressure up the middle in his face, clogging up the middle making it tough on him to look down the field.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great post - I agree with each #, except for the above. I think priority #1 has to be stopping the passing game. While I respect the Saints running attack, its the passing game that poses the biggest threat.

This should be a classic "bend, don't break" game for the Pats defense. In fact, I can see them getting run over...until the field shrinks. Similar to an Indy game, we'll play the pass heavily and use a nickel or dime defense as our base D. We'll keep McGowan near the LOS b/c he'll likely cover Shockey anyway, so we'll still have 7 or 8 in the box most plays, it'll just be a lighter group.

But we'll focus on stopping the big plays through the air, give them the running game, and if and when they get into the red zone, tighten up and try and hold them to field goals. Which puts a lot of onus on our offense to score when they get red zone opportunities. Really, I see this being very much like an Indianapolis game, save for the fact that I think Manning is better than Brees, while the Saints might be a more balanced team overall than Indy.

I respectfully disagree.

I don't think you "stop" the Saints passing attack. Brees will get his yards and points, just like Manning. The trick is (1) to not let him run wild, (2) to not give him a lot of freebies off of defensive turnovers with points and good field position, and (3) contain the running attack, making the Saints offense one-dimensional.

I personally want to puke at the idea that this should be a "bend but don't break" game. I think it should be an attacking game for our defense, even if we give up 1 or 2 big plays. We need to keep aggressive and keep Brees off balance, forcing him into mistakes, and not play afraid of giving up a big play. The Saints will get big plays, no matter what we do. They're too good not to. But they will carve us up if we sit back and play BBDB.

Our red zone defense is currently ranked around 28th. The Saints have been deadly inside the red zone. I don't really want to see us get "run over" until the field shrinks. I do agree that we will use a lot of nickel and dime coverages with a 3 man front, but I don't think that should prevent us from limiting the running game.

As you say, somewhat similar to the Indy game, and we have the benefit of that painful experience. And it's largely because the Saints are more balanced than Indy that I want to take away that balance.

 

[Patspsycho]

Our red zone defense is currently ranked around 28th. The Saints have been deadly inside the red zone. I don't really want to see us get "run over" until the field shrinks. I do agree that we will use a lot of nickel and dime coverages with a 3 man front, but I don't think that should prevent us from limiting the running game.

This is exactly correct.

The red zone will be a key part of this game, and will be one of my five points. We rank 28th in RZ defense, NO ranks 4th in RZ offense, and unfortunately, this discrepancy is also mirrored the other way, with us ranking 24th in RZ offense, and NO ranking 5th in RZ defense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is exactly correct.

The red zone will be a key part of this game, and will be one of my five points. We rank 28th in RZ defense, NO ranks 4th in RZ offense, and unfortunately, this discrepancy is also mirrored the other way, with us ranking 24th in RZ offense, and NO ranking 5th in RZ defense.

Its been 3 years and the RZ D has not been fixed. Hopefully the team can start to get that arrow pointed the other way.

 

[centja1]

Hey guys, I'm a saints fan. thanks for deleting the ladiesman's posts.

In asking about the Pats, I'll quote the Saints numbers since I'm not as familiar with the Pats. It annoys me to no end that people say the Saints are averaging 38 (or whatever number it is) points per game as if the offense is scoring 5 TDs and a FG by itself. I mean, you can't really give the saints that many points in a game against a quality opponent since you're probably not going to get many opportunities for defensive scores, much less convert one.

By a similar token, I saw a couple of posts mentioning that we gave up 27 points to Detroit, 27 to the Giants etc, but a decent chunk of yards/points in several games came when the game was out of hand. Everyone can agree that protecting a 4-7 point lead usually calls for different defensive tactics than "protecting" a 14-21 point lead. Obviously, the defense earned all 34 points it gave up against Miami, but my point is that there are probably 3-4 touchdowns (2.8 ppg) that really had no impact on the game whatsoever.

This is all a long way of asking if the Patriots have any misleading numbers on the year? Or at least any numbers that should be higher/lower?

 

[Patspsycho]

I personally want to puke at the idea that this should be a "bend but don't break" game. I think it should be an attacking game for our defense, even if we give up 1 or 2 big plays. We need to keep aggressive and keep Brees off balance, forcing him into mistakes, and not play afraid of giving up a big play. The Saints will get big plays, no matter what we do. They're too good not to. But they will carve us up if we sit back and play BBDB.

This is exactly what we should be avoiding because in this specific game against their specific skill areas such as red zone execution and our failure to defend it, we will get KILLED if we continue to play that bend no break bullsh!t.

 

[Satchboogie3]

I don't want to sound like a jerk, but those are the 5 "keys" to any and every game. I think the "key" to this game is going to be scheming. Brees looks like a different QB (as do most) under pressure, so the key is figuring out how to apply maximum pressure while keeping good coverage in the secondary. We need to hit him often and hard. I think a deceptive game plan may be the best approach, lots of blitzing mixing in with exotic coverages. Hit him, rush him, and then confuse him. This obviously starts with the front 4.

As for the offense, I think they may need to get creative this game. If the O-line is still banged up and Morris is still out, we can't just relying on screens and slants all day. Now would be the time to use some trickery. I LOVED the reverse Welker last game, I think we will need to use a lot more plays like that to be successful. Make the defense react and think twice. Keep them on their heals, and we should be able to be successful. If we get back to the predictable play calling and formations, it will be a LONG day.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

the fact that the Ravens, whose current cornerbacks are terrible didn't want to bring C-Mac back should tell you Saints fans all you need to know about him

C Mac is ......A mid season band aid.....that covers a scab....that the Patriots will pick at all game

 

[ms.saintsfan]

With Brees being one of the shorter QB's in the NFL at about 6'1 6'2 I think the Pats should try bringing pressure up the middle in his face, clogging up the middle making it tough on him to look down the field.

As a saints fan this is the smartest post so far on how to stop the saints off.
but drew is very hard to get rattles you my baffle him for a series but like all great QB's you can never count him out.with that being said

our def isnt what you would call a shut down D but give them credit that they have owned the 4rth quarter all yr.not sure where the pats stand in that but i think the saints are ranked 1rst in second half of the game def (not sure i don't have stat's to back it up)

somebody mentioned earlier in this post that we cant put all are WR on the field true but we do have formations for 5 to be on the field at the same time along with reggie in the back field i will probab;y get bashed for my opinion but who cares after monday night win or lose we all will still be homer's towards are team

all i can say about the game and the outcome for sure is that i pray for it to be a well fought contest with no injury's (with a saints win)

btw im not trying to take anything away from your team but just trying to inlighen some of you that this isnt the saints of old and don't think we cant find a way to win the game

 

[PatsSox363804]

As a saints fan this is the smartest post so far on how to stop the saints off.
but drew is very hard to get rattles you my baffle him for a series but like all great QB's you can never count him out.with that being said

our def isnt what you would call a shut down D but give them credit that they have owned the 4rth quarter all yr.not sure where the pats stand in that but i think the saints are ranked 1rst in second half of the game def (not sure i don't have stat's to back it up)

somebody mentioned earlier in this post that we cant put all are WR on the field true but we do have formations for 5 to be on the field at the same time along with reggie in the back field i will probab;y get bashed for my opinion but who cares after monday night win or lose we all will still be homer's towards are team

all i can say about the game and the outcome for sure is that i pray for it to be a well fought contest with no injury's (with a saints win)

btw im not trying to take anything away from your team but just trying to inlighen some of you that this isnt the saints of old and don't think we cant find a way to win the game

Everyone is well aware that the Saints can win the game.

 

[Patspsycho]

As a saints fan this is the smartest post so far on how to stop the saints off.
but drew is very hard to get rattles you my baffle him for a series but like all great QB's you can never count him out.with that being said

our def isnt what you would call a shut down D but give them credit that they have owned the 4rth quarter all yr.not sure where the pats stand in that but i think the saints are ranked 1rst in second half of the game def (not sure i don't have stat's to back it up)

somebody mentioned earlier in this post that we cant put all are WR on the field true but we do have formations for 5 to be on the field at the same time along with reggie in the back field i will probab;y get bashed for my opinion but who cares after monday night win or lose we all will still be homer's towards are team

all i can say about the game and the outcome for sure is that i pray for it to be a well fought contest with no injury's (with a saints win)

btw im not trying to take anything away from your team but just trying to inlighen some of you that this isnt the saints of old and don't think we cant find a way to win the game

Who are you fooling ladiesman? Give it up, you'll just get zapped again.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hey guys, I'm a saints fan. thanks for deleting the ladiesman's posts.

In asking about the Pats, I'll quote the Saints numbers since I'm not as familiar with the Pats. It annoys me to no end that people say the Saints are averaging 38 (or whatever number it is) points per game as if the offense is scoring 5 TDs and a FG by itself. I mean, you can't really give the saints that many points in a game against a quality opponent since you're probably not going to get many opportunities for defensive scores, much less convert one.

By a similar token, I saw a couple of posts mentioning that we gave up 27 points to Detroit, 27 to the Giants etc, but a decent chunk of yards/points in several games came when the game was out of hand. Everyone can agree that protecting a 4-7 point lead usually calls for different defensive tactics than "protecting" a 14-21 point lead. Obviously, the defense earned all 34 points it gave up against Miami, but my point is that there are probably 3-4 touchdowns (2.8 ppg) that really had no impact on the game whatsoever.

This is all a long way of asking if the Patriots have any misleading numbers on the year? Or at least any numbers that should be higher/lower?

Thanks for posting.

As I understand it, your argument is that a lot of the points given up by the Saints defense have been relatively meaningless in games that were already out of reach. Is that correct?

It's a valid argument. Looking at the Saints' games so far, here's what I see:

- Game 1, Detroit: defense gives up 20 points, with the other 7 coming on a fumble by the offense and a 65 yard return for a TD by Louis Delmas. Detroit seems to have done it's best to keep coming back, and I don't think any of the 20 points given up were meaningless.

- Game 2, Philly: Saints lead only 17-13 at the half, but score 17 unanswered points to open the 3rd quarter and make it a 34-13 game. Pretty meaningless after that. Hold Philly to 4 points below their season average, anyway.

- Game 3, Buffalo: Saints give up only 7 points.

- Game 4, NY Jets: Saints give up on 10 points.

- Game 5, NY Giants: Saints best game of the year, totally destroying a 5-0 Giants team. Saints up 34-17 at the half, go up 41-17 in the 3rd quarter. Rest of the game is meaningless, so I'll give you that the last 10 points scored by the Giants were essentially in garbage time.

- Game 6, Miami: Phish get out to a 24-3 lead, then let the Saints come back in the 2nd half with 36 points. No garbage points in this one.

- Game 7, Atlanta: Saints score 3 TDs in the 2nd quarter to lead 28-14 at the half, but let Atlanta come back to 28-24. The last 3 points by the Falcons were meaningless.

- Game 8, Carolina: Saints trail 17-6 at the half and 20-13 before scoring 17 unanswered points to close it out. 0 garbage points.

- Game 9, St. Louis: Saints can't put the Rams away the entire game. No garbage points.

- Game 10, Tampa Bay: Bucs score first, NO answered with 38 straight. 0 garbage points.

So what I see is that Detroit got 7 from it's defense, and the NO defense gave up 10 garbage points to the Giants and 3 to the Falcons after the outcome was already decided. So I'll give you 20 points, or 2.8 PPG, for an average of 18.4 PPG. Not that much, but something. Not that if we do the same thing we the Pats and discount the 3 TDs not allowed by the defense then the Pats D is giving up an average of 14.3 PPG. I don't believe we've given up a garbage point on defense all year - all have been earned.

As I mentioned in another thread, the Saints offense is average 32 PPG, the defense 4.9 PPG. And that doesn't count points scored by the offense because of a short field. The Saints are average 56.6 yards per game on interception returns alone. That's phenomenal. No one else is in the same league.

As for the Pats, I think the numbers are fairly accurate. Offensively, we're putting up huge amounts of yardage and a fair amount of points, but, as our red zone ranking indicates, we're leaving a tremendous amount of points off the board. If we were more efficient in the red zone we would be neck and neck with you for the lead in scoring right now. Defensively we're very good in terms of points allowed, yardage, passing, and turnovers created, but poor in terms of sacks and defensive pressure, and in terms of red zone defense. I think that's pretty accurate, too.

 

[mayoclinic]

As a saints fan this is the smartest post so far on how to stop the saints off.
but drew is very hard to get rattles you my baffle him for a series but like all great QB's you can never count him out.with that being said

our def isnt what you would call a shut down D but give them credit that they have owned the 4rth quarter all yr.not sure where the pats stand in that but i think the saints are ranked 1rst in second half of the game def (not sure i don't have stat's to back it up)

somebody mentioned earlier in this post that we cant put all are WR on the field true but we do have formations for 5 to be on the field at the same time along with reggie in the back field i will probab;y get bashed for my opinion but who cares after monday night win or lose we all will still be homer's towards are team

all i can say about the game and the outcome for sure is that i pray for it to be a well fought contest with no injury's (with a saints win)

btw im not trying to take anything away from your team but just trying to inlighen some of you that this isnt the saints of old and don't think we cant find a way to win the game

No one things this Saints team is the Saints of old, I assure you.

I'm a bit confused. Do you run a version of the Wildcat? Because otherwise I don't understand how you can have Brees at QB, 5 OLs, and 6 other guys (5 WRs + Bush) on the field. That's 12 men. I'll take that any time.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

No one things this Saints team is the Saints of old, I assure you.

I'm a bit confused. Do you run a version of the Wildcat? Because otherwise I don't understand how you can have Brees at QB, 5 OLs, and 6 other guys (5 WRs + Bush) on the field. That's 12 men. I'll take that any time.

Bastid! You just told them and helped the Saints win!

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't want to sound like a jerk, but those are the 5 "keys" to any and every game.

I would disagree. Common keys against the Colts, for example, included protecting Brady from the pass rush (not as big a factor with the Saints) and getting pressure on Manning. Shutting down the Colts' running game wasn't a priority. Turnovers, time of possession and red zone efficiency weren't paticularly prominent among keys mentioned vs. the Dolphins (and none were needed). Stopping the run, controlling TOP, and winning the turnover war weren't particularly noted as keys against Denver. Etc.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bastid! You just told them and helped the Saints win!

Oops! Sorry.

But if the Saints want to take Brees off the field and run a "wild angels" offense with Reggie Bush and 5 WRs (and 0 TEs), I'll take my chances.

 

[centja1]

Thanks for posting.
As I understand it, your argument is that a lot of the points given up by the Saints defense have been relatively meaningless in games that were already out of reach. Is that correct?

not quite, but I generally agree with the scores you tallied. That Rams game was an oddball game because while watching it, I never really felt threatened that the Saints would lose. We had an 11 point lead and then they scored a late TD that used a ton of time and then recovered an onside kick and then all of a sudden, they were throwing it 40 yards for the win. I wouldn't disagree that the Saints never put them away, the Saints were never really in too much danger. It was a hail mary for the win, not fourth and goal from the 3 or something.

I can name at least three defensive touchdowns that were complete garbage points (Sharper in Philly, Hargrove vs Carolina, Porter at Miami) that simply extended a one score lead to a two score lead and had no bearing on the outcome of the game. If they would have gone to the ground, we still would have won.

Perfect example is the 59 points against Tennessee. Sure, it makes your average over five games 37.4, but at some point we all have to admit that you're not scoring 59 points on too many teams and discount that some for an average.

This is kind of a rambling post, but give me median score per game or something like that, which is still very good for both teams.

As I mentioned in another thread, the Saints offense is average 32 PPG, the defense 4.9 PPG. And that doesn't count points scored by the offense because of a short field. The Saints are average 56.6 yards per game on interception returns alone. That's phenomenal. No one else is in the same league.

Darren Sharper has a 99 yarder and a 97 yarder......OUTLIERS!

 

[mayoclinic]

That Rams game was an oddball game because while watching it, I never really felt threatened that the Saints would lose.

That doesn't count in my book. We led the Jets 24-0 and gave up 14 answered points to allow them within 10. I never thought we'd lose, but those points aren't "garbage points" in my mind, because they had a chance to make a game out of it. We gave up 7 first half points to Tampa Bay and led 21-7 at the half. The game wasn't technically over, but I don't think anyone gave TB a chance.

As for the 59 points against the Titans, that's not such an anomaly. We scored 50 several times in 2007 with similar offensive personnel, including 52 the last time we faced a (actually pretty decent) Greg Williams defense. I don't think anyone predicted 59 points, but I think most people assumed we would put up a half century at least once this year.

Hopefully next week we make it twice.

 

[centja1]

That doesn't count in my book. We led the Jets 24-0 and gave up 14 answered points to allow them within 10. I never thought we'd lose, but those points aren't "garbage points" in my mind, because they had a chance to make a game out of it. We gave up 7 first half points to Tampa Bay and led 21-7 at the half. The game wasn't technically over, but I don't think anyone gave TB a chance.

As for the 59 points against the Titans, that's not such an anomaly. We scored 50 several times in 2007 with similar offensive personnel, including 52 the last time we faced a (actually pretty decent) Greg Williams defense. I don't think anyone predicted 59 points, but I think most people assumed we would put up a half century at least once this year.

Hopefully next week we make it twice.

fair enough, but you only scored 50 twice in '07 (including one defensive TD against Washington, since we're talking about them). I remember it well because I had been parlaying the Pats and the over every week that season, culminating with that silly NE -5 line @ Dallas.

After that game, it felt like a little something died because the linesmakers said, "f*ck you, NE -21.5.....parlay that!"

off topic, but it made me think of it when you mentioned that washington game