A few points:
If you exclude QB's, I agree with the point that people tend to over value the 4th pick or high picks in general.
These high picks use up too much of the salary cap relative to the probabiliy of success. I am convinced of this after reading
"The Losers Curse" by Thaler and Massey -
https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/w...sers-curse---management-science-july-2013.pdf
and Ben Baldwin's work on Open Source Football -https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/
The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart (1st = 3000, 2nd = 2600, 3rd = 2,200, 4th = 1,800...) to me seems to be obsolete. It was created over 30 years ago, 1993, but most likely earlier than that and was created before the salary cap (1994). I believe the quantative analysts have come up with much better ones. Some of the better know ones include Fitzgerad-Spielberger, Harvard Sports analysis chart, Rich Hill model, and Ben Baldwin's work referenced above. I would be surprised if any NFL front office is using the Jimmy Johnson chart anymore.
Thaler & Massey as well as Baldwin's work highlight a point I found counter intuitive but interesting. The high picks are worth less than later picks. More specifically, here is the table from Baldwin's work looking at surplus value per pick. Pick #12 is the most valuable pick. I take this with a grain of salt but believe in the general concept. I think this is why the Pats and other teams may have a difficult time trading down although the optimal strategy is to trade down in the first round for the Pats.
To those who suggest trading up is a better strategy or pick 1 is better than pick 2 or never trade down, I think both articles above do a good job of offering a different point of view. I think the main difference is that both articles factor in salaries. To not factor in salaries is like buying stocks at any price, for those old timers - like buying the "nifty fifty" in the early 70's which obviously didn't turn out well.
1=64 surplus value points
2=67
3=68
4=69
5=73
6=82
7=89
8=96
9=94
10=95
11=97
12=100 (author would argue this is the most value pick in the draft)
20=94
26=86
32=81
55=64
