2027 Watch List

[manxman2601]

I found this excellent cut up of Chris Cole, the Georgia linebacker. It's good because it splits up his run defense, coverage reps and pass rush snaps in three separate blocks.

The first coverage rep at 1:25 where he runs downfield with a WR is particularly impressive. also check out the range on KJ Bolden on that play.

Also, Cole is no slouch as a pass rusher with what looks to be very good length.

I think run defense might be the weakest part of his game.

 

[manxman2601]

I think if it were today I would go defensive BPA. My current defensive big board is something like:


I think I would prioritize dominance at DL or CB over LB in the 1st, but not sure.

I loved your board but wanted to say that I'm largely with you here. I love Brown and KVA but quality DLs and CBs are harder to find than linebackers.

KJ Bolden? Having seen his range in that clip I talked about in the Chris Cole post, I think he'll end up being high on my defensive board.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm just about to post about Chris Cole (see below) but I've been having an internal debate today about Brown v KVA centered largely around versatility. I cam to the conclusion that I don't need versatility from my main linebacker piece, I want a direct replacement for Spillane - someone who is excellent as a MIKE. So I lean Sammy Brown for that reason. It's still neck and neck with KVA but edge Brown for me. He's a sub 4.5 linebacker with a wrestling background. It's not as though Brown's ceiling is limited.

I do think i like the idea of luxury pick in the first and both Roberts and Coney on day 2. That still leaves us in need of a CB and a safety so, as you say, free agency will play a big part.

I like the versatility. Love Brown, but would probably go KVA or Cole. Not surprising - I loved Jake Golday, you loved Jacob Rodriguez and CJ Allen.

I like the LB depth. Just as I would have been happy with Kyle Louis, Kaleb Elarms-Orr, Jimmy Rolder and Justin Jefferson, I would be happy with Ben Roberts, Ray Coney, Tony Rojas, Arion Carter and Sammy Omosighbo. I think I could go BPA round 1 and still build a darn good LB room around that group.

 

[manxman2601]

I found this excellent cut up of Chris Cole, the Georgia linebacker. It's good because it splits up his run defense, coverage reps and pass rush snaps in three separate blocks.

The first coverage rep at 1:25 where he runs downfield with a WR is particularly impressive. also check out the range on KJ Bolden on that play.

Also, Cole is no slouch as a pass rusher with what looks to be very good length.

I think run defense might be the weakest part of his game.

This is the channel that did that cole cut up. I'm glad to see he's got a few more in a similar format. Only a few cut ups so far but he's only been going two weeks. I followed him because I thought that Cole one was excellent.

Ice-Cold Cut-Ups

College football cut-ups

www.youtube.com

 

[mayoclinic]

KJ Bolden? Having seen his range in that clip I talked about in the Chris Cole post, I think he'll end up being high on my defensive board.

I really don't want to go S round 1:

1. S is devalued. Last year Caleb Downs was considered by many the best player in the draft. He went #12. Dillon Thieneman was considered a near lock to Minnesota at 18. He went 25. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren was commonly mocked round 1, he slipped to 58. 5 safeties went in the first 2 rounds, 8 in the top 100. Very good players slipped to day 3, including Keionte Scott, Zakee Wheatley, and VJ Payne.

2. The 2027 S class looks potentially both strong and deep. Right now I have:

- KJ Bolden. 6' 195#. Poor man's Caleb Downs.
- Tae Johnson. 6'2" 200#.
- Jelani McDonald. 6'2# 200#.
- Ty Benefield. 6'2" 200#.
- Zach Lutmer. 6' 205#. Poor man's Cooper DeJean.
- Dashawn Spears. 6'3" 210#.
- Koi Perich. 6'1# 200#. Poor man's Dillon Thieneman.
- Tao Johnson. 6'1" 193#.
- Amare Ferrell. 6'2" 200#.
- Jackson Bennee. 6'2" 190#.

That's 10 deep, not including guys like Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb and Marcus Neal, who are more box safety guys.

Based on what Vrabel seems to like from safeties, I'm looking at longer, ranger guys who excel in coverage. I would put Tae Johnson/Jelani McDonald/Ty Benefield in my first tier for this type, with Tao Johnson/Amare Ferrell/Jackson Bennee in my second tier. Zach Lutmer and Koi Perich are also of interest.

I also like the taller safeties because of the increased use of 13 personnel, which we've discussed elsewhere.

I'm betting we can get a very good S in rounds 3-4. Bolden is a very good player, but right now I'd rather not go that route in the 1st round.

 

[manxman2601]

I really don't want to go S round 1:

1. S is devalued. Last year Caleb Downs was considered by many the best player in the draft. He went #12. Dillon Thieneman was considered a near lock to Minnesota at 18. He went 25. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren was commonly mocked round 1, he slipped to 58. 5 safeties went in the first 2 rounds, 8 in the top 100. Very good players slipped to day 3, including Keionte Scott, Zakee Wheatley, and VJ Payne.

2. The 2027 S class looks potentially both strong and deep. Right now I have:

- KJ Bolden. 6' 195#. Poor man's Caleb Downs.
- Tae Johnson. 6'2" 200#.
- Jelani McDonald. 6'2# 200#.
- Ty Benefield. 6'2" 200#.
- Zach Lutmer. 6' 205#. Poor man's Cooper DeJean.
- Dashawn Spears. 6'3" 210#.
- Koi Perich. 6'1# 200#. Poor man's Dillon Thieneman.
- Tao Johnson. 6'1" 193#.
- Amare Ferrell. 6'2" 200#.
- Jackson Bennee. 6'2" 190#.

That's 10 deep, not including guys like Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb and Marcus Neal, who are more box safety guys.

Based on what Vrabel seems to like from safeties, I'm looking at longer, ranger guys who excel in coverage. I would put Tae Johnson/Jelani McDonald/Ty Benefield in my first tier for this type, with Tao Johnson/Amare Ferrell/Jackson Bennee in my second tier. Zach Lutmer and Koi Perich are also of interest.

I also like the taller safeties because of the increased use of 13 personnel, which we've discussed elsewhere.

I'm betting we can get a very good S in rounds 3-4. Bolden is a very good player, but right now I'd rather not go that route in the 2st round.

I like some of the mid range guys too and agree there's a good chance they fall into the mid rounds. However, I think with a top 10 as quality as we have this year, I think there's a chance Bolden could fall into the 20s. And judging by that play I highlighted, that's legit centre field skills, I want to see more but someone with Earl Thomas like range would be an outstanding compliment to not just Woodson, but the CBs too, allowing them to be more aggressive.

He probably won't fall to the mid twenties and I wouldn't trade up, but if he fell into our laps, I do think he's a cut above the competition.

 

[manxman2601]

My ideal defense from this draft. I've gone with an early round option and a later round uption (not first two rounds). I'm also going 4-3-4 as we don't need a NCB.

EDGE

Early round - Yhonzae Pierre, Will Heldt
Later round - Clev Lubin, Taylor Wein

1T DT

Early - Will Echoles
Later - Jayden Jackson, Oklahoma (this is probably a cheat. will rise!)

3/5t

Early - Ahmad Moten
Later - Jide Abasiri, USC

MIKE

Early - Sammy Brown/KVA
Later - Ray Coney

WILL

Early - Ben Roberts
Later - Tony Rojas

SAM

Early - Chris Cole
Later - Isaiah Glasker, BYU howver TBD really

CB

Too many to choose from but...

Early - Zabien Brown, Kelly Jones
Later - Brice Pollock, Chris Peal

(Technically according to the database I use, Peal and Pollock are round three guys but I acknowledge this feels like cheating. I just haven't done enough research on possible day 3 corners yet. Same with safeties below).

Safety

Early - KJ Bolden, Jelani Mcdonald
Later - Dashawn Spears, Tao Johnson (not Tae)

Tae v Tao Johnson is going to get very confusing.

This exercise has made me realise I don't know enough about day 3 guys yet.

 

[manxman2601]

Jayden Jackson, DT, Oklahoma
6-2, 310
The Oklahoma interior DL are going to be fun to watch this year.

 

[manxman2601]

Safeties: The 85ers.

As I've mentioned before, the way I found Craig Woodson was that he was blue across the board on his PFF grades. Above 85 on run defense, coverage and tackling.

Woodson finished with a 85.0 run defense grade, 83.1 tackling grade*, 88.5 coverage grade

* He had one final bad game with 3 missed tackles which just dropped him under the 85 tackling grade.

So here are the draft eligible 85ers from last year. I do allow one grade being just under the mark.

Dashawn Spears, LSU - 85.7 run, 84.3 tackle, 90.3 coverage
Bray Hubbard, Alabama - 90.4, 82.7, 82.6 (close enough)
KJ Bolden, Georgia - 91.3, 90.6, 82.3

That's the list. You can see why I'm so high on Spears.

A couple of honourable mentions

Faletau Satuala, BYU - 74.6, 86.9, 84.9
Keon Sabb, Alabama - 71.0, 81.1, 84.8
Jaylen McLain, Ohio State - 77.6, 87.0, 77.1

I don't really want to dilute it more than that because it limits the impact.

For comparison's sake, Caleb Downs went 83.3, 77.9, 89.6