2024 NFL Draft Thread (Continued..)

[PatsFan2]

I really like him.

 

[PatsFan2]

If you draft a tackle at 3 your organization sucks and is clueless, that pick is too valuable, if you want a tackle in the first round trade with someone like Atlanta and moved from 3 to 8 and get a haul.

Someone will be willing to pay a premium to take Daniels/MHJ, picking a tackle at 3 would be historically dumb for a team with so many needs.

You have the Giants at 6 who might want a QB too.

Preach Brother preach if we get some picks along way the could get a Nix or Pennix Jr @34.

 

[KCSVEN]

This is a genuine question:
Is there a greater chance that a #3 overall WR pick turns into Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Devante Adams...
Or the #3 overall QB pick turns into Manning, Brady, Rogers, Mahomes...

If you are going to draft a WR #3 in a deep WR draft they will need to be Moss level.
But you don't need the QB drafted to be the best QB in the NFL. Matt Ryan was never Manning, Brady level but well worth a #3 pick. You need them to be in the top 10 of QB's. The WR would need to be a perennial all-pro.

Top 8 WR taken back to 2012 (last 12 drafted): Drake London, Chase, Waddle, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Astin, Justin Blackmon. Last 2 WR's to go in top 3 were Calvin Johnson and Braylon Edwards.

QB TOP 8 (to 2018, last 13: Young, Stroud, Richardson, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Murray, Daniel Jones, Mayfield, Darnold Allen

Maybe Chase is at that Moss like level, probably it.

Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud and maybe TUA (based on stats) are top 10. Burrow and Allen both just below Mahomes (Went #10) and possible HOF candidates.

Surprisingly seems like odds favor QB over WR.

 

[gobesmug]

If you are going to draft a WR #3 in a deep WR draft they will need to be Moss level.
But you don't need the QB drafted to be the best QB in the NFL. Matt Ryan was never Manning, Brady level but well worth a #3 pick. You need them to be in the top 10 of QB's. The WR would need to be a perennial all-pro.

Top 8 WR taken back to 2012 (last 12 drafted): Drake London, Chase, Waddle, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Astin, Justin Blackmon. Last 2 WR's to go in top 3 were Calvin Johnson and Braylon Edwards.

QB TOP 8 (to 2018, last 13: Young, Stroud, Richardson, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Murray, Daniel Jones, Mayfield, Darnold Allen

Maybe Chase is at that Moss like level, probably it.

Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud and maybe TUA (based on stats) are top 10. Burrow and Allen both just below Mahomes (Went #10) and possible HOF candidates.

Surprisingly seems like odds favor QB over WR.

MHJ is the probably the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson to come out in the draft. If Caleb Williams and the Drake are taken then MHJ is best pick unless you get a crazy trade offer for #3

 

[Ross12]

I guess all of this assumes CHI doesn't want a QB? Listening to Poles in his presser, it does sound like they may want to stick w/ JF1. CHI only has 6 picks and no 2nd Rd picks.

If so, they could trade down w/ WAS who looks like they want Caleb (w/ Kingsbury @ OC) by simply telling them another team wants #1. WAS owns CHI's original 2nd Rd pick (#40) that I'm sure they'd love to get back.

They could do so again w/ NE. Of course by then, it'll be obvious they're not going QB, but if your guy is, say Maye, and they tell you another team wants #2 and you're only 1 spot away from getting your guy, wouldn't you do it? CHI could haul in two #2s and still get MHJ.

Of course, NE better be 100% sure that's their guy, which is of course never a guarantee.

I agree with you here. But if NE is smart, that trick should only work once. Chicago could convince Washington to trade up to #1 by saying that someone like Atlanta is offering them a king’s ransom to come up from #8 for the same pick, and the value is so good that they’re willing to miss out on MHJ for it. But once they trade with Washington, then it becomes clear that they DON’T want a QB but DO want a top non-QB prospect (so, MHJ). At that point NE shouldn’t trade for any reason. Chicago could try to say someone else is trying to trade up for #2, but if that happened, Chicago would be below NE. NE would just have to reply and say that if another team trades up and takes Maye then they’ll just draft MHJ themselves at #3, or will trade down with a team who wants him.

 

[Love The Drake]

I agree with you here. But if NE is smart, that trick should only work once. Chicago could convince Washington to trade up to #1 by saying that someone like Atlanta is offering them a king’s ransom to come up from #8 for the same pick, and the value is so good that they’re willing to miss out on MHJ for it. But once they trade with Washington, then it becomes clear that they DON’T want a QB but DO want a top non-QB prospect (so, MHJ). At that point NE shouldn’t trade for any reason. Chicago could try to say someone else is trying to trade up for #2, but if that happened, Chicago would be below NE. NE would just have to reply and say that if another team trades up and takes Maye then they’ll just draft MHJ themselves at #3, or will trade down with a team who wants him.

Chicago will try to fleece us like they did Carolina.
It could turn into a poker match for sure.

 

[jboston19]

I agree with you here. But if NE is smart, that trick should only work once. Chicago could convince Washington to trade up to #1 by saying that someone like Atlanta is offering them a king’s ransom to come up from #8 for the same pick, and the value is so good that they’re willing to miss out on MHJ for it. But once they trade with Washington, then it becomes clear that they DON’T want a QB but DO want a top non-QB prospect (so, MHJ). At that point NE shouldn’t trade for any reason. Chicago could try to say someone else is trying to trade up for #2, but if that happened, Chicago would be below NE. NE would just have to reply and say that if another team trades up and takes Maye then they’ll just draft MHJ themselves at #3, or will trade down with a team who wants him.

If Chicago got enough value in a trade to make it worthwhile for them to pass on MHJ and “settle” for Nabers, Bowers, or a tackle, it isn’t an idle threat.

 

[Ross12]

If Chicago got enough value in a trade to make it worthwhile for them to pass on MHJ and “settle” for Nabers, Bowers, or a tackle, it isn’t an idle threat.

No, but if they were going to go that route then they would have taken whatever kings ransom was being offered for 1 overall in the first place. Trading down 1 slot would signal that they don’t want to move out of the top few slots.

 

[Uptown]

 

[jdlboot14]

Yikes, we picked the two guys who get sacked more than anyone!

I don't want anyone who is in the same quadrant as Mac Jones.

I think you're reading that backwards... It appears the sack rate is lowest at the top left.
Meaning Jones & Zappe should be THE best 2 QB's!! Lowest sack rate AND least time to throw.
So, maybe it really was all our OL's fault, and Mac is a HoFer!

 

[upstater1]

I think you're reading that backwards... It appears the sack rate is lowest at the top left.
Meaning Jones & Zappe should be THE best 2 QB's!! Lowest sack rate AND least time to throw.
So, maybe it really was all our OL's fault, and Mac is a HoFer!

???

These are college stats. LOL

 

[Toofy]

I think you're reading that backwards... It appears the sack rate is lowest at the top left.
Meaning Jones & Zappe should be THE best 2 QB's!! Lowest sack rate AND least time to throw.
So, maybe it really was all our OL's fault, and Mac is a HoFer!

This shows our qbs were earliesr to throw the ball and avoid getting sacked.

What this means is that they are so mistrusting the offense that they try to throw before the route or play develops .

No wonder the stats are so bad. . Maybe mac might be able to exorcise his demons in mind if he got .3 seconds of additional time in pocket .

This is a great stat and shows some underlying issues with our offensive line andbits inpact on our QBs processing time leading to super early/ quick throws leading in lower sack rates.

 

[VrabelJr]

You won’t be competitive with only a LT but you won’t be competitive without a LT. I doubt we draft one at #3 anyway. Far more likely if we trade down.

There’s going to be a whole bunch of maneuvering in the coming weeks. If we’re signaling we want a LT publicly that’s just to prohibit other teams from feeling the need to leap frog us and hoping to stick Chicago with the #1 and force them to make a tough decision.

 

[jdlboot14]

This draft is very deep at WR - meaning we can get a very good (WR1 caliber player) in the 2nd round.
I don't think there's any "sure-bets" of the top QB's, but there is consensus franchise LT's.

Answer - trade down to #6 or 8 (Giants or Falcons - who may want to get a QB) and take the best LT in the draft (Alt).
With the extra high 2nd rounder, you can get a good WR & TE (or take a shot at a high-upside QB)
- Nix is the perfect 2nd round option, if he falls. Or, Pratt in the 4th.

Either way, the answer is to begin a rebuild with a new staff with a Vet QB, not a rookie.

 

[jdlboot14]

???

These are college stats. LOL

I know! They were the 2 best rated at throwing quick and least sacked in NCAA.
And then became progressively horrible (for Mac) his 2nd and 3rd year in the NFL... it really can't be all on Mac.

 

[Uptown]

Some under the radar OT/OL prospects:

-Christian Jones, Texas
-Beaux Limmer, Arkansas
-Dominick Puni, Kansas
-Satao Laumea, Utah
-Kingsley Sumataia, BYU
-Garret Greenfield, SDSU
-Jordan Morgan, Arizona
-Roger Rosengarten, Washington
-Charles Turner, LSU
-Christian Haynes, UConn
-Javon Foster, Missouri
-Delmar Glaze, UMD
-Kingsley Eguakun, Florida
-Travis Glover, Georgia State
-Brandon Coleman, TCU
-Javion Cohen, Miami
-Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin
- Trevor Keegan, Michigan
-Isaiah Adams, Illinois
-Andrew Raym, Oklahoma
-Layden Robinson, Texas A&M
-Ethan Driskell, Marshall
-Graham Barton, Duke
-Blake Fisher, ND

 

[Uptown]

 

[venecol]

I agree with you here. But if NE is smart, that trick should only work once. Chicago could convince Washington to trade up to #1 by saying that someone like Atlanta is offering them a king’s ransom to come up from #8 for the same pick, and the value is so good that they’re willing to miss out on MHJ for it. But once they trade with Washington, then it becomes clear that they DON’T want a QB but DO want a top non-QB prospect (so, MHJ). At that point NE shouldn’t trade for any reason. Chicago could try to say someone else is trying to trade up for #2, but if that happened, Chicago would be below NE. NE would just have to reply and say that if another team trades up and takes Maye then they’ll just draft MHJ themselves at #3, or will trade down with a team who wants him.

OK, so if you're all in on Maye, you would be willing to let him slip away being 1 pick away just to own CHI?

I suppose if that's the case, you were really never all in on Maye and the plan was to sit and hope he falls to you or trade back for more picks. I guess either strategy has merit but again, if he's your guy, you take him, imo.

 

[upstater1]

I know! They were the 2 best rated at throwing quick and least sacked in NCAA.
And then became progressively horrible (for Mac) his 2nd and 3rd year in the NFL... it really can't be all on Mac.

How do you explain that Zappe looked 100x better behind that OL in terms of time to throw and maneuvering around the pocket?

 

[JohnJH]

Preach Brother preach if we get some picks along way the could get a Nix or Pennix Jr @34.

We can get one of the top two OT's around picks 5 to 7. As for QB, and it's just my humble opinion (which counts for not much), I would prefer McCarthy over Nix or Penix. Whoever we draft at QB should sit for their rookie season.