Greg is a bit of a DH but has a ton of experience in the business. I've said this before but the draft is small town invaded by people who don't who don't
live there. Paying attention to mocks on PFF or what most think and are saying out there is useless. If anything, you're not a weirdo and don't follow the draft 24/7. Find 3-5 people you trust from different levels of the draft and follow them. It's a unique process, not a straight line you see online.
Trade Charts Alone Do Not Determine Draft-Day Deals
Talking to fans, I always get the impression they feel decisions are made last-minute. While that can be true when deciding on who to select between two players, most teams have a plan that is set in place during meetings leading up to draft day.
The idea to possibly trade up or trade down is always discussed in advance. If a team feels that there is a certain player it has to get, and it has to move up to be able to get him, then the cost of moving up is discussed.
Just about every team in the NFL still uses a trade chart for draft day. Charts today, however, are different than the ones originally used by Johnson. With the new CBA, values have changed. While clubs don't strictly adhere to the chart, it is used as a guide. The actual values, especially at the top of the draft, can change from year to year depending on who the consensus top picks are. When there is an obvious No. 1 and No. 2 pick, the value of those picks can go up.
What a club wants to do and what it is able to do are always determined days before the draft begins.
Many believe the decision on who a team drafts belongs to just one person. That wasn't the case in my years with the Giants and Bears. It was always a collective decision in which the scouts, coaches and the general manager all had input. No matter if it was the first round or seventh round, every single choice was discussed.
Going into a draft, teams always have certain players that they will target in certain rounds. If everything goes as planned, it's easy to make the decision.
If teams go into a draft fixated on taking one particular player, they will be heartbroken.
That's why teams have to have a list of several players ready for each round. Prioritize each player on the list, and if the top player is gone then go to No. 2.
I always had a rule: you could only talk about a player if you wrote a report on him. When it came time to talk about Player A, everyone who saw him play would be involved in the discussion. We talked about his talent, character and how he would fit within the scheme.
If the consensus was that he was a player we wanted, then he was put on the list. If we couldn't reach a consensus opinion, he was eliminated.
That said, the room wasn't necessarily a democracy. The GM's and head coach's votes generally carried more weight than some of the other people. If a final decision had to be made, the person in control of the 53-man roster made the final decision.
Every team in the NFL has one person who is the ultimate boss. Regardless of what title a person has, the man who controls the final roster is
the boss.
However, when that person decides to pull rank and doesn't listen to his subordinates, mistakes get made.
Just like football is a team game, so is the art of scouting and drafting.
While drafting "best player available" sounds good in theory, it seldom actually happens. Teams usually draft the best player available at a position of need.
Teams rarely go into a draft with just one need, but almost always have some more important than others. During the ranking process, the players at positions of need always find their way to the top of the charts.
However, that's not to say teams will always turn down a top player who is not a need.
Generally, when a team is facing a situation like that, the decision to trade down comes into play. And sometimes, a top player is there who the team wasn't expecting to be. That's when an entirely different discussion begins.
When something like that happens, it's usually in a premium round and the club has time to talk about it (teams have less time to make their selections as the draft progresses). When an unexpected player falls, it's likely going to happen three to five picks before your team is on the clock. That should give a team plenty of time to discuss that player and make a decision on what to do.
One year where a big-time player dropped and teams were caught off guard was 2005 when quarterback
Aaron Rodgers fell. Going into that draft, many felt Rodgers would be a top-five pick. When that didn't happen, teams drafting in the teens were caught off guard. This was a player they never figured would be there and was not discussed as a possible selection.
On draft day, especially in the first round, teams don't like being thrown a curve ball.
Analysts Draft Boards Are Not Comparable to Teams' Draft Boards
When watching the draft, analysts often say after some picks are made that they had a player at the same position rated higher. One thing you can be sure of is that no two teams' draft boards are alike.
Clubs rate players based on the player profile they have set up for each position. Literally every position on the team has a definition attached to it. If a team plays a four-man front, what it looks for at each of the two end positions and tackle positions is defined. When scouts are on the road in the fall, they look for players that fit the profile as it is written up.
Because of that, scouts from Team A will grade a certain player differently than scouts from Team B. Also, you have to take into consideration how scouts view similar players. I have always said if you put five scouts in the same room, give them the same tape of the same player, they will come back with five different opinions. It's not because one scout is right and the others are wrong. They simply look at the player in a different way
While the ratings of players in the first couple of rounds may be similar from team to team, the ratings of players drafted in the lower rounds are far different. Every year I was in the NFL, I saw clubs draft players in the mid-rounds who we had rated as free agents. I might have a player in the third round that another club has in its fifth. This is not unusual. In many cases, how the player fits a profile is indeed the difference.
When the draft takes place in two weeks, make a note of that. Teams will pass on players that the analysts have rated high.
One other thing to look for: players usually drop for two main reasons on draft day. One is for medical issues. The other is character. If you see a top player still available much later than he was projected to go, you can bet it's because of one of those issues.
