2022 PTP Draft Board / Pats Draft Talk

[SHOWTIME15]

No it isn't.

Sorry not sorry, but drafting Zion Johnson, at #21 without a trade-down, on this team with other, greater needs (CB, NT, DE, LT, WR) is a Complete Waste of scarce & precious draft capital.

So you’d give up a pro bowler? If Bill thinks he’s going to be that good in a weak draft class, he’s got to take him at 21 or later. I’d rather draft top end talent rather than go for a mediocre player at a position of high need.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Speaking of grades. I may be misremembering, but as you’ve been updating the PTP board, there’s been quite a few removals of 1st rd grades. Right? There’s only 11 now. I thought there were more. If your board is close, this is one lean draft. Everything is in that 2nd to 4th rd sweet spot. I’m beating a dead horse here, but would looove for Bill to find some way to really stockpile some picks in that range. Besides trade downs, not sure how else he would get there. We might be in for some serious reaches and trade outs for next year by the time it’s all said and done. Gonna be fun to watch for surprises, that’s for damn sure.

I think his board only includes players that have a potential shot at dropping to a position the Pats would be willing to trade up to. For example, Hutchinson isn’t on it and Walker isn’t anymore but was earlier, because currently no one thinks there’s any shot of them making it out of the top 5, let alone top 10, and that BB would need to trade next year’s 1st to get that high and has never done so. At least that’s how I’ve interpreted it, maybe I’m wrong here?

 

[PWRxWLF]

I think his board only includes players that have a potential shot at dropping to a position the Pats would be willing to trade up to. For example, Hutchinson isn’t on it and Walker isn’t anymore but was earlier, because currently no one thinks there’s any shot of them making it out of the top 5, let alone top 10, and that BB would need to trade next year’s 1st to get that high and has never done so. At least that’s how I’ve interpreted it, maybe I’m wrong here?

You’re correct. I was speaking merely from the Pats board perspective. Who is within reach of us. Bill could always trade up though! Only reason why I watch the damn thing. For the surprise picks and my own knee jerk reactions.

 

[long distance]

Two years $6M is pretty cheap. The announcement was two years $9M but it is "More realistically, he will end up short of that number which is why the pact is in fact a two-year, $6 million deal." Here is 2022, less than $2.5M and 2023 is less than $3.5M, and both are dependent on Incentives that will most likely never be achieved 100%, so I think that is "pretty cheap" or at least, "about as cheap as you can expect in today's NFL".

2022​

• Base salary: $1.04 million (fully guaranteed)
• Signing bonus proration: $800,000
• Offseason workout bonus: $100,000
• Per-game roster bonus: $510,000
• Incentives: $1.5 million
• Salary cap number: $2.42 million

That was this years market.

There was basically no $ for LBs this year. Only 3 guys got paid (one after being cut).
My old binkie Oluokun rushed to sign 15M/apy contract w 28 guaranteed before Jags noticed the insanity.
Wagner and Campbell 10M apy.. and thats basically it.
The rest either signed minor contracts (most 1y) or are still hanging out there.

This boards binkie Van Der Esch (that would get 10M apy here from pats fans) re-signed for 1y/2M.
There is a reason for that on tape .. but who'd bother

So yes, the contract is cheap, especially for the kind of role (starter/green dot) and production he offers NE.
And no, this contract by no means suggests diminished role in the future. if anything it may increase with Hightower likely gone.

What it does is it gives Pats some leverage to possibly upgrade (draft) and have open competition (always do),
but also secures the position with a player they trust - on the cheap for 2 more years (1.3M 2023 salary is also guaranteed).

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Bb is a value drafter.

Zion does not seem like maximum value for us at 21.

We can easily get a guard in the 3rd or 4th round and plug that draftee in as a starter at left guard.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Bb is a value drafter.

Zion does not seem like maximum value for us at 21.

We can easily get a guard in the 3rd or 4th round and plug that draftee in as a starter at left guard.

All true IMO. But BB might trade down and pick Zion + Dax Hill + Travis Jones.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

Treylon Burks. To my very untrained eye, presents the best value at 21 in my imaginary draft night break down. Combine does not match the tape. Combine very likely drives his slot down.

Looks like the best WR on film. Size = check. Hands= check. Route running = check. Vs good competition = check. Yac = check. Shows up in big games = check. Versatility = check.

If the Patriots are serious about making up for Harry - it's Burks.

 

[DaBruinz]

Given salary structures in the NFL, if you're not using your premium pick on QB, LT, WR, CB or DL & perhaps transcendent talents at LB, you're doing it wrong. It takes a transcendent talent to move away from this formula. Saquon Barkley was by far the best RB talent in a generation, but anyone taking a RB that high is wasting it. Same with most OL positions. People talk about Linderbaum as though he's one of the best college centers ever. He's somehow gone from a top 5 pick to top 10 to top 20 to first round and now many mocks have out of the first round completely. Must have something to do with all the bad football games he's played between January and April.

I don't remember Linderbaum being touted as anything but a 1st round pick. Maybe I missed it. Just like I missed that he was no longer being talked about as a 1st rounder.

What I DO know is that ANYTHING you've heard in the 2 week prior to the draft is likely misinformation. Particularly if it's come from any of the football teams. What I also know is that people over-react to the Combine and Pro-Day numbers. We always hear how certain players are rising and others are falling. Many times it's because of the numbers. But Linderbaum put up good numbers and had excellent interviews. So this idea that he's not in the 1st round seems like misinformation by a team that wants him as cheaply as possible.

 

[nowayback]

I didnt realize, I thought it would be one of the safest picks

NFL draft Defensive Tackle Prospects - Success Rates in the NFL

Defensive tackle looks like being one of the more risky positions to draft.

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

 

[upstater1]

I don't remember Linderbaum being touted as anything but a 1st round pick. Maybe I missed it. Just like I missed that he was no longer being talked about as a 1st rounder.

What I DO know is that ANYTHING you've heard in the 2 week prior to the draft is likely misinformation. Particularly if it's come from any of the football teams. What I also know is that people over-react to the Combine and Pro-Day numbers. We always hear how certain players are rising and others are falling. Many times it's because of the numbers. But Linderbaum put up good numbers and had excellent interviews. So this idea that he's not in the 1st round seems like misinformation by a team that wants him as cheaply as possible.

He's 31 in this one but there's many mocks he's not even in the first round.

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Panthers, Seahawks and Steelers all land quarterbacks in first round

Some QB-needy teams find pieces to build around in this latest mock draft

www.cbssports.com

 

[State]

If the Patriots are serious about making up for Harry - it's Burks.

It’s not just N’Keal Harry but the second-rounder of JoeSlow Williams (who we traded up for!) and, possibly, Josh Uche, who I fear will perennially be tabbed as ready to have a “bust out” year only to fizzle.

Drafting Uche in the second round was an obvious blunder.

I will not soon forget Uche’s senior year of college, the only time he cracked the starting lineup some games, he rarely saw the field against rival Penn State. It was weird.

He has elite twitch and speed, but is undersized and I don’t think he had the confidence of the defensive staff at scUM.

Whether he can be coached “up” and be durable remains to be seen.

 

[State]

I don't remember Linderbaum being touted as anything but a 1st round pick….What I DO know is that ANYTHING you've heard in the 2 week prior to the draft is likely misinformation….So this idea that he's not in the 1st round seems like misinformation by a team that wants him as cheaply as possible.

Yep. Misinformation. You remember the Patriots doing that to the Jests regarding Vernon Gholston out of Ohio State?

 

[ashley]

Bb is a value drafter.

Zion does not seem like maximum value for us at 21.

We can easily get a guard in the 3rd or 4th round and plug that draftee in as a starter at left guard.

Agree, someone like Zack Tom can easily slide into a starting Guard role in the 4th round...I don't see BB going after a Guard at 21, from prior drafting history it just doesn't happen. I also don't see us taking a wr either. If I had to guess, it's either a trade back, OT, D-lineman or someone like Daxton Hill.

 

[50-yard-line]

Agree, someone like Zack Tom can easily slide into a starting Guard role in the 4th round...I don't see BB going after a Guard at 21, from prior drafting history it just doesn't happen. I also don't see us taking a wr either. If I had to guess, it's either a trade back, OT, D-lineman or someone like Daxton Hill.

I could see them taking a WR, believe it or not. Groh's comments have stayed with me.

Very few rookies make an impact in the NFL in their first year or two. Very few. But lately, several WRs have done just that (Chase, Deebo, Metcalf, Brown). And buying good WR vets is out-of-control expensive. If the Pats believe that trend will continue (I don't), it might force their hand.

I admit, I have NO IDEA what the Pats are going to do this year. Its wide open (which makes it more interesting, and frustrating). I do expect that if they draft at 21 or move up (don't count anything out), it will either be for the very rare kind of physical specimen/athlete you can't "build," like Davis for example, or for someone who drops that they believe is a cut above (and there aren't many of those this year, I think), like a Hutchinson or maybe a Williams or some other player who just jumps off their board, or, at 21, someone they believe is just too good a fit to risk a trade down.

I don't think trade-ups or trade-downs are going to be nearly as expensive/rewarding as last year.

 

[DaBruinz]

Agree, someone like Zack Tom can easily slide into a starting Guard role in the 4th round...I don't see BB going after a Guard at 21, from prior drafting history it just doesn't happen. I also don't see us taking a wr either. If I had to guess, it's either a trade back, OT, D-lineman or someone like Daxton Hill.

There are numerous instances of BB not having done something only to do just that.

- Prior to Harry, BB had never drafted a WR in the 1st round.
- Prior to DMac, BB had never drafted a CB in the 1st round.
- Prior Vince Wilfork, BB hadn't drafted someone coming out early in the 1st round.
- Prior to Mayo, BB had never drafted a LB in the 1st round.
- Prior to Maroney, BB had never drafted a RB in the 1st round.

Prior drafting history does help, but there are always times where BB will break his trend. It depends on the player.

Zion Johnson has many plusses working for him. He is arguably the best interior O-Lineman in the draft. He's been working with Dante Scarneccia. He can play center as well as Guard. He's said to be extremely intelligent.

 

[PWRxWLF]

All true IMO. But BB might trade down and pick Zion + Dax Hill + Travis Jones.

If he figured out a way to pull that off, I’d spend the night opening up the good stuff!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If he figured out a way to pull that off, I’d spend the night opening up the good stuff!

I think you are right and I exaggerated. According to Walter Football an even trade would be #21 for #34 and #66 (trading with the Lions who might want a QB for example). So we would have #34, #53, #66, and #85. I do not think we can get Zion, Hill, and Jones with those picks. But Jones will fall, IMO, because DT "run stuffers" routinely fall due to a traditionally high "bust" rate and not being a 3 down player. Four picks on Day 2 would be fun though - OL, DL, WR, and CB.

 

[JMC00]

I think if they are taking an OL in the 1st it's gonna be a T that can be the #3 for a year and then take over for Wynn. I don't think they target a G until after #85.

I think the other G alongside Onwenu will be Desjarlais.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

There were rumors that the Patriots tried to trade up in 2018 so they could draft Frank Ragnow.
Patriots tried to trade up for center Frank Ragnow, so maybe they’re not happy with their offensive line

Not sure if this was ever officially confirmed. But if true, it’s an example where they would be willing to take an interior lineman in the 1st who didn’t have experience at tackle.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Agree, someone like Zack Tom can easily slide into a starting Guard role in the 4th round...I don't see BB going after a Guard at 21, from prior drafting history it just doesn't happen. I also don't see us taking a wr either. If I had to guess, it's either a trade back, OT, D-lineman or someone like Daxton Hill.

We need to come out of this draft with another solid o-linemen IMO. Mac is the franchise and we need to protect him. Right now our RG is Ferentz. Yikes.